Re: UNH vs Maine , 12/4 & 12/5 - "The Wheels On The House Go 'Round And 'Round...."
Re: UNH vs Maine , 12/4 & 12/5 - "The Wheels On The House Go 'Round And 'Round...."
I totally understand that. And I also totally understand the D-1 schools are complicit in creating an alternate route for the large number of undrafted players - not to mention a pretty large pool of drafted players as well.
An undrafted player who opts for the D-1 route has already had to deal with rejection by definition, and there is a huge difference between someone who is either projected (Eichel) or actually comes in (JvR) as a #2 overall draft pick, and an undrafted player who is simply hoping to prolong the dream.
To my perception, the idea that leaving school whenever money is on the table is too often unchallenged. Advisors/agents want a piece of the pie (or at least to add a "success story" to their CV), while friends and even some family members want to live vicariously through the player. I would personally advocate that any time a kid is considering leaving school early to sign a pro deal, he should be forced to watch the movie Slapshot daily for a week, without the hockey scenes. Just let the *glamor* that is the reality of minor league hockey wash over you, because whether you're in the AHL, the ECHL or (gulp) lower than that, it's all a matter of degree, and the shrinking size of your per diem every time you get bumped down another level.
And the idea of getting close to your revolving door of teammates (have you really ever looked at an ECHL "roster"?) is a really bad joke. Your Greenville Swamp Rabbits (!) have already had 35 players - including 5 goalies - on their "roster" this season, which will be hitting the midway mark of the season in two weeks' time. Minor league hockey bears zero resemblance to minor league baseball, where each organization has a multi-layered developmental system. The day you hit the ECHL, the clock is ticking. And unless you are one of the privileged few, you WILL have to deal with minor league hockey, its long bus rides, cheap motels etc. as part of the so-called "dream".
Look at the case of Derek Bekar (and my apologies to him for continuing to roll out his example) ... the last D-1 game he ever played was in front of 18,000 people and national television (ESPN) in the '98 Frozen Four semis, when he was probably the best player on the ice for UNH in their 4-0 loss to eventual champs Michigan. As an 8th round choice of the Blues, he opted to leave, and I'm not sure he ever got to play a game even remotely approaching that level of importance ever again in his pro career, which not only consisted of 11 scoreless NHL games over parts of 3 seasons with 3 different teams, but also featured 7 seasons of riding buses all across North America without even a sniff of the fun end of the Calder Cup playoffs. And sadly, that's the way the "dream" ends for most of these kids. We'll never know if things would have changed - be it his D-1 career OR his pro career - had he decided to wait another season before turning pro.
In the end, it has to depend on how much money, and what your realistic prospects might be in the organization you are contemplating. Signing early just for the sake of a money grab due to a perceived closing window ... well, using that logic, why did you bother to go D-1 in the first place anyway, when you arguably could have been cashing paychecks in Wichita or Utica or Destin or Anchorage for years already?
Well that's the pessimists view - but it is hardly reality, especially for players with the talent and ability to get NHL free-agent contracts. You're labeling the NHL prospect with the low-minor league journeyman experience.
Sure, the ECHL is hardly a long-term career path, with players earning around $500 per week, plus housing and food per diem. That's why a player who can't skate and stayed in college for five seasons, like Justin Agosta, or limited players, like Matt Willows and Jeff Silengo, skate in the ECHL.
Prospects who leave early are signing NHL deals, including Brett Pesce who signed a 3-year 2.2 million dollar contract. While, Pesce has jumped straight to the NHL his deal also stipulated a $70,000 AHL salary. Kessel signed for 1.9 million over two-years and his deal probably included a similar AHL salary. The minimum AHL salary is essentially $50,000 and Garrett Stafford and Trevor Smith both earned $300,000 while skating shifts in the AHL. If you're dreaming of a professional hockey career and a shot at the NHL, making $70,000 (or much more than the typical entry-level of the average UNH graduate) playing for a team who thinks your best chance to be an NHLer is right now, doesn't sound too bad...
When a guy like Kessel exhausts his entry-level deal and taken his shot and missed at the NHL - he packs it up and goes to Europe where the average salary in Finland (he's playing for SM Liga) is over $100,000.
As of 2008, the average European League Salaries according to a THN article were:
Russia - $400K
Sweden - $200K
Switzerland - $170K
Germany - $150K
Finland - $100K
Czech Republic - $100K
Slovakia - $75K
Lets assume Derek Bekar made average salaries his whole career, which included eight seasons in the AHL ($400K), one year in Switzerland ($170K) and two seasons in Germany ($300K). That makes for career earnings of $870K, before even considering his initial signing bonus, any other signing bonuses, a year in the Netherlands, 11 games of NHL salary and any number of NHL healthy scratches. Not a bad career pre-35 years old. Eric Nickulas, who played over 100 NHL games, made out even better. Daniel Winnik, professional grinder, has played 11 years in the NHL and is in his first year of a 2-year 4.5 Million dollar deal...
Nearly every player who has left UNH early, has enjoyed a solid career in the NHL, AHL or Europe (Jeff Levy being the exception). They took what they thought was their best shot to get to the NHL, and while some made it and some didn't I don't think its fair to look at those players making significant money or at least equivalent to 'real job' money as failures who made a mistake leaving early. Its easy to look back at the end of their careers and ask whether Bekar would trade one of his years in the AHL for the 1998-99 title or if Winnik would have rather stayed one more season at UNH and jumped STRAIGHT to the NHL, but that's complete hindsight and not realistic...
Why did Danny Tirone leave the USHL a year early? We could look back on that choice now and wonder what would happen if he could have stayed - would he be much sharper and more consistent this season? The problem is, he went to the USHL to develop his game for college - so when he got the opportunity to jump at it, he did. The NCAA is still a developmental league for a lot of these guys and their pro ambitions.
Poturalski is 22 this month - he only has a few more years to convince NHL GM's that he can be a top-six forward at the highest level. Unfortunately, for UNH that mean's moving on when you have very little to prove at the NCAA level. Unfortunately for UNH, that means one more season at most. He may have to settle for his NHL signing bonus and an extended career making six-figures to play hockey and site-see around Europe, because the NHL is a HARD league to make. Poor guy...
If there's been any signing bonus inflation since the days of the aforementioned players, $500K is Pot's floor.
) ... but while we're here and on topic, let me just add that my point continues to be that leaving early offers no guarantee of bettering your prospects. Who's to say a guy like Winnik doesn't still find his NHL niche as a grunt forward (BTW classifying his NHL career to date as "great" is a little generous, no?), or the same happens with Muir (sans Cup)?
and I believe both are doing very well)
