UNH v UMass HE qtr Final Extraganza

[HockeyRef]

Re: UNH v UMass HE qtr Final Extraganza

Get the pom poms out Ref! Have fun!

hmmm no poms for this one...and chickod I'm sitting in that section pretty low to the ice and close to the aisle. Subject to change if my views are lousy. Hopefully a lot of other UNH fans there (not calling you one but we are glad to have you...why aren't you going to Lowell??) Anyway...will be wearing my #27 KG jersey for posterity's sake! Go 'Cats!!

ps
In case we 'rah rah' types are misunderstood...trust me..the struggle IS real

 

[chickod]

Re: UNH v UMass HE qtr Final Extraganza

Hopefully a lot of other UNH fans there (not calling you one but we are glad to have you...why aren't you going to Lowell??) Anyway...will be wearing my #27 KG jersey for posterity's sake! Go 'Cats!!

To be honest, I think the atmosphere will be electric (according to the ticketing website there should be a huge crowd), and I think it will be a fun night. They're not expecting a huge crowd at Tsongas. (That's not an indictment on anyone today - but unfortunately, I have the experience of past memories during the golden age of full arenas when there were no other distractions like internet and other technology, so my perspective is just different) I don't enjoy going to games where the arena is half empty...it's just really depressing. And if we don't get one of the big state schools to the Garden (Maine, UNH in particular - not sure how well UMass will draw there only because they haven't been there enough to establish any sort of pattern) it will be another snoozefest like the last three years. I'll look for you. For tonight I'm a Wildcat fan!

 

[HockeyRef]

To be honest, I think the atmosphere will be electric (according to the ticketing website there should be a huge crowd), and I think it will be a fun night. They're not expecting a huge crowd at Tsongas. (That's not an indictment on anyone today - but unfortunately, I have the experience of past memories during the golden age of full arenas when there were no other distractions like internet and other technology, so my perspective is just different) I don't enjoy going to games where the arena is half empty...it's just really depressing. And if we don't get one of the big state schools to the Garden (Maine, UNH in particular - not sure how well UMass will draw there only because they haven't been there enough to establish any sort of pattern) it will be another snoozefest like the last three years. I'll look for you. For tonight I'm a Wildcat fan!

Well then welcome aboard!! Looking forward....

 

[chickod]

Re: UNH v UMass HE qtr Final Extraganza

Well then welcome aboard!! Looking forward....

Me too!

 

[sonar]

Re: UNH v UMass HE qtr Final Extraganza

If one waits long enough there can be a reversal of fortunes and a tendency to move toward the middle. In statistics it is called regression to the mean (RTM. For example, if you flip a coin often enough the results will be close to 50/50. Of course athletic teams are not coins and events are complex.

RTM refers to the idea that “things” tend to even out over time, or at minimum move toward an even split. It can be comforting when applied to life in general. As a matter of fact I kind of like it applied to life in general because it nudges me toward being optimistic when “things” don’t go my way.

Things certainly did not go my way when attended a couple of hockey games in the 1970’s. The results were gut wrenching for UNH. Some of you remember those games ☹

ECAC Quarterfinals 1974 lost to #8 RPI when UNH was #1
ECAC Quarterfinals 1976 lost to #7 Harvard when UNH was #2.

It is now 2019 and maybe the gods in charge of life in general have decided that enough is enough and it is time for UNH to move in a different direction. If not this weekend at UMass …. next year.

PS: 1974 was the first year that UNH was ranked #1 in the country.

 

[chickod]

Re: UNH v UMass HE qtr Final Extraganza

If one waits long enough there can be a reversal of fortunes and a tendency to move toward the middle. In statistics it is called regression to the mean (RTM. For example, if you flip a coin often enough the results will be close to 50/50. Of course athletic teams are not coins and events are complex.

RTM refers to the idea that “things” tend to even out over time, or at minimum move toward an even split. It can be comforting when applied to life in general. As a matter of fact I kind of like it applied to life in general because it nudges me toward being optimistic when “things” don’t go my way.

Things certainly did not go my way when attended a couple of hockey games in the 1970’s. The results were gut wrenching for UNH. Some of you remember those games ☹

ECAC Quarterfinals 1974 lost to #8 RPI when UNH was #1
ECAC Quarterfinals 1976 lost to #7 Harvard when UNH was #2.

It is now 2019 and maybe the gods in charge of life in general have decided that enough is enough and it is time for UNH to move in a different direction. If not this weekend at UMass …. next year.

PS: 1974 was the first year that UNH was ranked #1 in the country.

That assumes non-bias (i.e., the coin is equally weighted so that with a large enough sample size it will tend to land on one side or the other close to an equal number of times). On the other hand, if the Bruins played Merrimack 100 times, I don't think each team would win 50. Get my point?

But I applaud your optimism and actually hope that the Wildcats can pull the upset!

 

[sonar]

Re: UNH v UMass HE qtr Final Extraganza

That assumes non-bias (i.e., the coin is equally weighted so that with a large enough sample size it will tend to land on one side or the other close to an equal number of times). On the other hand, if the Bruins played Merrimack 100 times, I don't think each team would win 50. Get my point?

But I applaud your optimism and actually hope that the Wildcats can pull the upset!

No, I do not get your point because as a statistician I included the 2nd sentence in my original post. "Of course athletic teams are not coins and events are complex." I think perhaps your point lies elsewhere ..........

 

[Chuck Murray]

Re: UNH v UMass HE qtr Final Extraganza

No, I do not get your point because as a statistician I included the 2nd sentence in my original post. "Of course athletic teams are not coins and events are complex." I think perhaps your point lies elsewhere ..........

On the other hand if your point is that you were attempting to demonstrate how much you know about statistics

That's gonna leave a mark, chickod ...

 

[chickod]

That's gonna leave a mark, chickod ...

As Paul & Mary said, “But if I really say it, the radio won’t play it; Unless I lay it between the lines.”

 

[Chuck Murray]

Re: UNH v UMass HE qtr Final Extraganza

I’m gonna go out on a limb and assume Herb wouldn’t tell the team they would lose 9 of 10 to a team they’re playing in a best of three, but whaveter fires you up.

Excellent point.

I’m also gonna go out on a limb and say the pressure isn’t on UMass. Would it be nice to go back to the garden for the first time in 12 years? You bet! Does the season continue regardless? Absolutely. I fully plan on being at a regional rooting for UMass regardless of what happens in the next two weeks. UNH on the other hand is golfing next week if they don’t take two of three. As a fan, I was much more nervous and anxious last year going to Matthews cause it was do or die. Now it’s more do or bye.

See, here's the thing. Will this weekend be the end of the season for UMass? No. Are they expected to win, and some might say, win handily? Yes. Is this a team/program that's used to playing games like these from the position of prohibitive favorite? Not even close. So, will they feel a little extra pressure? Maybe … maybe not. This season is going to end up in uncharted waters for Coach Carvel, no matter what happens this weekend. That Round of 16 game your program is looking at two weeks from now, that's Coach's first time in the big tourney. So he's experiencing all of this for the first time in his career. If he does not feel the pressure of high expectations to some degree in this first-time scenario, then he's probably super-human.

I'm not saying UNH wins the series, and in fact I've given them no more than a 20% chance to do so (trust me, I got the odds from Sully at The Heights). BUT … if things do not get off to a bright start tonight, and (worst case for the MinuteWagon) the wheels come off with a Game One loss … the pressure is squarely on them for the rest of the weekend. As a new #1, big boys on the block team, all you want to do is prove yourself, and shut up doubters (like me). And if it starts to go pear-shaped on you, nasty self-doubting thoughts start to creep into your mind. For UNH, for that reason, tonight is pretty much a must-win.

As an aside, I remember going to BC for QF back around 2010 or so that UMass played in when the Minutemen sucked and BC was winning National Championships every other year. I remember Conte Forum playing the clip of this speech from Miracle to fire up the home crowd and wondering how the heck that made sense. One team was on a streak of winning championships all the time, the other was routinely under .500. Which was more like the Soviets? Does context mean nothing?

There is a universe up on The Heights all unto itself, and this is just one of the millions and millions of pieces of evidence that intelligent life does not necessarily inhabit that portion of the Earth.

 

[chickod]

Re: UNH v UMass HE qtr Final Extraganza

I think perhaps your point lies elsewhere ..........

UMass: 18 wins
UNH: 8 wins

At some point the programs may converge...but since this is a small sample size (2 out of 3), I doubt you will see any effect in that short of a time span. And by the same token, that's exactly the reason why statistics DON'T apply in a short series, because the sample size is so small. If they played 10 times, they might win...oh, wait.

 

[chickod]

Re: UNH v UMass HE qtr Final Extraganza

No, I do not get your point because as a statistician I included the 2nd sentence in my original post. "Of course athletic teams are not coins and events are complex." I think perhaps your point lies elsewhere ..........

You can always do a one-way analysis of variance (or as we used to call it in school [which shows how long ago I was in school], a "One-Way Chevy Anova"). [That's just a tiny little math joke...]

 

[chickod]

Re: UNH v UMass HE qtr Final Extraganza

See, here's the thing. Will this weekend be the end of the season for UMass? No.

One never knows. Desperate times call for desperate measures! (Don't mind me...I'm a little giddy. I haven't been to a game in awhile). I will be rooting for the Wildcats (definition of rooting: Actually having a pulse, standing up and yelling when my team scores and not sitting on my hands half asleep) and hope they can win. As I have said many times, it would be great to see them back at the Garden. And, like BU last year, it's their only path into the dance. And as "they" say, "That's why they play the games!"

 

[d.gerry]

Re: UNH v UMass HE qtr Final Extraganza

I'm tired of playing the long game (and yeah, I know, reality is it takes time), and it's the only time of the season when a single big weekend can make a real difference in the trajectory of your program. It's not like you're playing against a Walshy-coached team, or a Parker or York team in their primes. Opportunity knocks. If Souza doesn't have his guys flying from the outset for tomorrow's opener, he misses a really big chance to hang out the sign for everyone to see that it's not "business as usual" at UNH any more. There's a new sheriff in town, he breathes fire, and he plays to win. Go get 'em, MS7!!!

I'm going with Chuck here and jumping on this theme. Why can't MS7 come out blazing and send UMass packing. Are we so use to the DU era that we can't imagine such an outcome? Why not Mike, why not this team? Go shock the hockey world (ok, at least the Hockey East world) and get back to the Garden. Thanks, done with my cheerleading!

 

[chickod]

Re: UNH v UMass HE qtr Final Extraganza

Well...6:45 and hardly anybody here. Maybe they will all come in at the last minute? There IS heavy security...like going through TSA at an airport.

 

[msprice]

Re: UNH v UMass HE qtr Final Extraganza

Well...6:45 and hardly anybody here. Maybe they will all come in at the last minute? There IS heavy security...like going through TSA at an airport.

Like that at all of the games. With students away I imagine there will be plenty of locals and their families to fill up some seats.

 

[chickod]

Re: UNH v UMass HE qtr Final Extraganza

Cats hanging in. Wide disparity in talent. UMass is much faster and more skilled. Cats are tentative and aren’t moving the puck quickly enough before they get trapped and turn it over or make an inaccurate pass. Tough time getting it out of their own end. Not sure what they can really do except try to steal one. Robinson has been solid and kept them in it.

 

[HockeyRef]

Re: UNH v UMass HE qtr Final Extraganza

Thought it was a respectable first. Dodged some major bullets and I can see why UMass is tough in the PP. Crookshank Gildon Wyse playjng well early on loved the Nazarian hustle to draw that penalty.

Go ‘Cats!

 

[chickod]

Thought it was a respectable first. Dodged some major bullets and I can see why UMass is tough in the PP. Crookshank Gildon Wyse playjng well early on loved the Nazarian hustle to draw that penalty.

Go ‘Cats!

Where are you? Did you move? Looked for you...

 

[HockeyRef]

Cats hanging in. Wide disparity in talent. UMass is much faster and more skilled. Cats are tentative and aren’t moving the puck quickly enough before they get trapped and turn it over or make an inaccurate pass. Tough time getting it out of their own end. Not sure what they can really do except try to steal one. Robinson has been solid and kept them in it.

Hey moved my seat up in S for the second....Can see the entire ice from here...