UNH Hockey: Treading Water or Trending Upward

[HockeyRef]

That NOGOAL/NOCALL was baffling!!

Well see there was this ref on the ice who's last name begins with an S...I mean...how could you not call SOMETHING with that replay so clear?!?! Harrumph.

 

[Chuck Murray]

Re: UNH Hockey: Treading Water or Trending Upward

Fun theoretical thoughts:

1. The past four games UNH is 4-0-0. The first two games they beat bottom-mid feeders in Yale and Brown. Let’s say this is equivalent to UNH beating a BU or Maine in the HE first round to send them to the garden. Then, in the next two games they hypothetically beat NU and PC at the garden to win some hardware and play with the last 16 teams in the NCAAs

2. The past two games UNH has beat two NCAA tournament teams (both ranked 11th in PW at the start of the games I believe) - this lends those teams being likely 3 seeds. Say the cats found a way to get into the tournament. I realize they can’t play back to back 3 seeds in the regionals but hypothetically they just beat two qualified teams to progress to the frozen four. I understand this is a stretch but a positive takeaway nonetheless

I recognize these high quality wins are great momentum, I just hope this team doesn’t get complacent and continues to show up with a chip on the shoulder. Game in and game out they need to play hard and collective - especially entering a third period with a lead. Keep the foot on the gas UNH

Don't forget the earlier W's vs. BC and UMass, who are tied for #5 in PWR, and both top 10 in the polls.

If the point is, this UNH looks like it can be a tourney-ready team … right now, I agree with you.

 

[e.cat]

Well see there was this ref on the ice who's last name begins with an S...I mean...how could you not call SOMETHING with that replay so clear?!?! Harrumph.

It's a mystery fo sho

 

[HockeyRef]

It's a mystery fo sho

Maybe they blew the play dead? It's like Stonehenge..no one knows. Or...make up call after Wyse didnt get more than a minor for that hit? I know let it go already and take the W...

 

[e.cat]

Maybe they blew the play dead? It's like Stonehenge..no one knows. Or...make up call after Wyse didnt get more than a minor for that hit? I know let it go already and take the W...

Guess we'll have to go with blind faith Ref

 

[Dan]

Re: UNH Hockey: Treading Water or Trending Upward

I'll never understand coaches or front offices (or fans) who only use/prefer analytical approaches nor, especially, those who want to eschew analytics from the process entirely. Its about gathering ALL of the information available and making the right decisions and installing the best lineups and practices.

UNH's penalty kill has been dreadful. They currently rank THIRD WORST in the entire country. They're 7-for-20 (65%) in the second half. They've had fewer attempts on the PK than almost anyone and they've given up more PPG against than almost anyone. Would it really ruin UNH hockey for people if the staff took a deeper look into the numbers regarding who they're running out there to verify what their eyes initially tell them are their best PKers? Especially if it resulted in a stronger unit? I tend to doubt it and in reality it would be coaching malpractice not to do it...

Would anyone enjoy the season more if all of UNH's current momentum wasted away because the coaching staff ignored statistical evidence of their PK's performance and stubbornly stuck to the same units and tactics? I wouldn't. I want to see them sure up their biggest concern and actually make something of this season. Everything is clicking except for one singular unit and people are talking Boston/NCAA Tournament - now imagine that unit getting up to par with the rest...

The staff should absolutely be looking into the numbers offered above and re-evaluating PK line-ups and tactics. They have little to lose and much to gain. I would imagine they are doing this and would disagree that rectifying the PK through whatever means necessary would be boring or ruinous in any way.

Most notably I often find their PK to be especially passive. I assume they do not wish to be caught out of position for easy back door goals, etc. That makes perfect sense, except it isn't working and too often they're giving opponents far too much time and space. When I watch the UNH PP (ranked 12th best in the country) they seem to have the worst go of it when opponents are aggressive in pressuring Gildon and other playmakers at the top of the zone. This can lead to getting beat for bad/easy/ugly goals against but it also leads to more rushed passes, turnovers and clears. The goals against might be unattractive, but does it really matter if you're giving up fewer?

The staff also need to take a look at shaking up the PK units - even if the only number theyre looking at is 30% goals against. The status quo isn't working. And finding out which players are excelling on the PK, or those who are struggling and making the right adjustments isn't ruinous. Its the coaches' job. I think anyone would have pegged Maass, Wyse, Blackburn, etc as their best PKers prior to the season. It SEEMS obvious, right? But the results are clear and using whatever they have at their disposal (video, eye tests, even numbers) to get to the bottom of things (potentially leading to something so terrible as math driven adjustments) is absolutely necessary if they want to maximize their potential success in 2020...

 

[Snively65]

Well see there was this ref on the ice who's last name begins with an S...I mean...how could you not call SOMETHING with that replay so clear?!?! Harrumph.

Only can review goal/no goal or severity of penalty (ex., increasing minor to major and/or misconduct), I think. If penalty simply missed, cannot be reviewed, but maybe a make-up call can be made later.

 

[After the Whistle]

Re: UNH Hockey: Treading Water or Trending Upward

I'll never understand coaches or front offices (or fans) who only use/prefer analytical approaches nor, especially, those who want to eschew analytics from the process entirely. Its about gathering ALL of the information available and making the right decisions and installing the best lineups and practices.

UNH's penalty kill has been dreadful. They currently rank THIRD WORST in the entire country. They're 7-for-20 (65%) in the second half. They've had fewer attempts on the PK than almost anyone and they've given up more PPG against than almost anyone. Would it really ruin UNH hockey for people if the staff took a deeper look into the numbers regarding who they're running out there to verify what their eyes initially tell them are their best PKers? Especially if it resulted in a stronger unit? I tend to doubt it and in reality it would be coaching malpractice not to do it...

Would anyone enjoy the season more if all of UNH's current momentum wasted away because the coaching staff ignored statistical evidence of their PK's performance and stubbornly stuck to the same units and tactics? I wouldn't. I want to see them sure up their biggest concern and actually make something of this season. Everything is clicking except for one singular unit and people are talking Boston/NCAA Tournament - now imagine that unit getting up to par with the rest...

The staff should absolutely be looking into the numbers offered above and re-evaluating PK line-ups and tactics. They have little to lose and much to gain. I would imagine they are doing this and would disagree that rectifying the PK through whatever means necessary would be boring or ruinous in any way.

Most notably I often find their PK to be especially passive. I assume they do not wish to be caught out of position for easy back door goals, etc. That makes perfect sense, except it isn't working and too often they're giving opponents far too much time and space. When I watch the UNH PP (ranked 12th best in the country) they seem to have the worst go of it when opponents are aggressive in pressuring Gildon and other playmakers at the top of the zone. This can lead to getting beat for bad/easy/ugly goals against but it also leads to more rushed passes, turnovers and clears. The goals against might be unattractive, but does it really matter if you're giving up fewer?

The staff also need to take a look at shaking up the PK units - even if the only number their looking at is 30% goals against. The status quo isn't working. And finding out which players are excelling on the PK, or those who are struggling and making the right adjustments isn't ruinous. Its the coaches' job. I think anyone would have pegged Maass, Wyse, Blackburn, etc as their best PKers prior to the season. It SEEMS obvious, right? But the results are clear and using whatever they have at their disposal (video, eye tests, even numbers) to get to the bottom of things (potentially leading to something so terrible as math driven adjustments) is absolutely necessary if they want to maximize their potential success in 2020...

Dan it is hard to disagree and I am assuming that everyone is considering that who goes out first is often dependent on who is on the ice and for how long. when the infraction occurs. Last night they actually looked better for the first 1/2 or more of each PK. They were effective stopping the shot and clearing the zone. But they start to break down and that diamond 4 thing can do 2 thinks to them. Get them ever closer together and totally blocking the goalies vision or deflecting it (as in the 3rd goal) or just losing focus and starting to skatter with no plan. And yes the aggressive defense bothers them greatly on their PP.
However, it was a great game where we looked very skilled and they looked like the tide coming in at us again and again. Will the clock be our friend before that tide takes our sand castle? Yup plus we got that great effort goal from AC! And by the way their goalie clearly carried the puck into the goal area. But it could have been a quick whistle and probably not conclusive as to timing in the replay.
Go Cats!

 

[The Zlax45]

Only can review goal/no goal or severity of penalty (ex., increasing minor to major and/or misconduct), I think. If penalty simply missed, cannot be reviewed, but maybe a make-up call can be made later.

Shea wasn’t the ref on the goal line for that call. The other guy pointed right to center ice when blowing the whistle and a UNH player signaled to the bench that a penalty shot was called.

 

[HockeyRef]

Re: UNH Hockey: Treading Water or Trending Upward

Guess we'll have to go with blind faith Ref

Well alright

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oj5u3Yf28LE

 

[HockeyRef]

Re: UNH Hockey: Treading Water or Trending Upward

Shea wasn’t the ref on the goal line for that call. The other guy pointed right to center ice when blowing the whistle and a UNH player signaled to the bench that a penalty shot was called.

Thanks...prob not a good post (on my part) to make... We don't usually harp on officials over here. And...HR knows better.

 

[Gibber]

Only can review goal/no goal or severity of penalty (ex., increasing minor to major and/or misconduct), I think. If penalty simply missed, cannot be reviewed, but maybe a make-up call can be made later.

It may have changed but in the 2006 women's Frozen four in Minnesota, Minnesota was awarded a penalty shot when replay showed a UNH defenseman (woman?) covered the puck in the crease.... it was pretty **** clear on TV last night

 

[Ray Dorn]

Re: UNH Hockey: Treading Water or Trending Upward

Dan,

Your post today is very well written and to the point!


Snively65,

I agree that analytics can ruin a sport. Coaches start coaching toward what is currently the trendy stat. The players play with the thought of the stats being tracked. The Corsi and Fenwick statistics are very trendy today. I predict in a decade people will look back at them and laugh at how off they were.


Another statistic that stood out to me last night were face-offs. UNH won the vast majority of face-offs in the first period (3 goals for and 0 against). Providence won the vast majority of face-offs in the second period ( Providence 2 goals and UNH 0). The face-offs were pretty equal in the third ( UNH 1 and Providence 1).

Were the face-off results and goals for/against per period a coincidence or is there a correlation between the two???


I am sure Dan can dig up more specifics on this!

 

[HockeyRef]

Re: UNH Hockey: Treading Water or Trending Upward

I'll never understand coaches or front offices (or fans) who only use/prefer analytical approaches nor, especially, those who want to eschew analytics from the process entirely. Its about gathering ALL of the information available and making the right decisions and installing the best lineups and practices.

UNH's penalty kill has been dreadful. They currently rank THIRD WORST in the entire country. They're 7-for-20 (65%) in the second half. They've had fewer attempts on the PK than almost anyone and they've given up more PPG against than almost anyone. Would it really ruin UNH hockey for people if the staff took a deeper look into the numbers regarding who they're running out there to verify what their eyes initially tell them are their best PKers? Especially if it resulted in a stronger unit? I tend to doubt it and in reality it would be coaching malpractice not to do it...

Would anyone enjoy the season more if all of UNH's current momentum wasted away because the coaching staff ignored statistical evidence of their PK's performance and stubbornly stuck to the same units and tactics? I wouldn't. I want to see them sure up their biggest concern and actually make something of this season. Everything is clicking except for one singular unit and people are talking Boston/NCAA Tournament - now imagine that unit getting up to par with the rest...

The staff should absolutely be looking into the numbers offered above and re-evaluating PK line-ups and tactics. They have little to lose and much to gain. I would imagine they are doing this and would disagree that rectifying the PK through whatever means necessary would be boring or ruinous in any way.

Most notably I often find their PK to be especially passive. I assume they do not wish to be caught out of position for easy back door goals, etc. That makes perfect sense, except it isn't working and too often they're giving opponents far too much time and space. When I watch the UNH PP (ranked 12th best in the country) they seem to have the worst go of it when opponents are aggressive in pressuring Gildon and other playmakers at the top of the zone. This can lead to getting beat for bad/easy/ugly goals against but it also leads to more rushed passes, turnovers and clears. The goals against might be unattractive, but does it really matter if you're giving up fewer?

The staff also need to take a look at shaking up the PK units - even if the only number their looking at is 30% goals against. The status quo isn't working. And finding out which players are excelling on the PK, or those who are struggling and making the right adjustments isn't ruinous. Its the coaches' job. I think anyone would have pegged Maass, Wyse, Blackburn, etc as their best PKers prior to the season. It SEEMS obvious, right? But the results are clear and using whatever they have at their disposal (video, eye tests, even numbers) to get to the bottom of things (potentially leading to something so terrible as math driven adjustments) is absolutely necessary if they want to maximize their potential success in 2020...

One would certainly hope this issue, notably, the PK...is big on their radar for improvement. Everyone knows that a decent PK is absolutely necessary; good thing we are scoring goals as of late. They can definitely do a better job here. Agree with the time and space thing; and, can see your point when we are on the PP. PC was aggressive last night on all fronts; it hurried us as you said. That's what great teams do and I felt we have been rising to that occasion throughout the past 4/5 games which is fantastic to see!!

Tonight's game will show if any adjustments were made, and, or....just stay out of the box!!! Go 'Cats!!

 

[Dan]

Re: UNH Hockey: Treading Water or Trending Upward

Dan it is hard to disagree and I am assuming that everyone is considering that who goes out first is often dependent on who is on the ice and for how long. when the infraction occurs.

Absolutely, that is critically important. And I'm glad to hear they looked more effective, even just in spurts...

In taking a brief look at the numbers indicating who has been on the ice for PK goals against, it does become clear that the PK has relied heavily on four specific defensemen and five key forwards. And they're mostly the players you'd expect. At first glance there are some that would cause you to raise an eyebrow when the numbers tell you they aren't performing on the PK - eye test and skill sets indicating they should be good killers - while for a couple others, the high PK goals against aren't necessarily a surprise and you might see opportunities for changes in roles. Now, again, in both cases this is just one piece of a large puzzle of information that coaches need to piece together...

Considering each of the skill set evaluations, video review (etc) and the numbers is the only way to figure out where the disconnect is and what you can do to get better. Anyone ignores one piece to the puzzle at their own peril, IMO...

With the team playing so well on the whole - and, yes Snively, finally getting great depth of scoring - the bar of what is possible raises greatly if they can continue to play well and figure out this last area of concern. I have faith in them doing ALL they can to do so, which is all you can ask for...

---

One thing that jumps out to me at the forward position on the PK is the guys they're relying on are the same guys they rely on to play big minutes 5x5 and play the PP. That adds up to a lot of ice time. I think they have capable PK type talents among their third and fourth line forwards and it would be interesting to me to see them experiment with more situational ice time for guys like MacAdams, Esposito, Engaras and Herrmann...

 

[Ray Dorn]

Re: UNH Hockey: Treading Water or Trending Upward

Looking at the numbers (box score) does not tell the full story. It just tells you who was on the ice when you got scored against on the pk. It does not show the players who were on the ice when you did not get scored on during the pk. Every coaching staff has the video of all of their penalty kills for the season and all of their power plays and many other areas of the game. They need to pull out all players' time on ice per goal scored against. A player who gets scored against for every 15 minutes of penalty kill time should be playing more than a player who gets scored against every 5 minutes of penalty kill time on ice! The player getting scored on every 5 minutes of penalty kill time should be playing less or not at all on the pk.

 

[deltabravo62]

Re: UNH Hockey: Treading Water or Trending Upward

Shea wasn’t the ref on the goal line for that call. The other guy pointed right to center ice when blowing the whistle and a UNH player signaled to the bench that a penalty shot was called.

I'm wondering if he decided not to go with a P/S because although the Dman gloved it down it remained loose as it came out under his leg which triggered the review for a goal after the puck made it a certain distance underneath the player towards the goal after a follow up UNH shot. Not entirely knowing the rule, I'm guessing that the official saw him glove it down and thought he fell on top of it (covering it in the crease) but then saw that he never actually covered it as the puck then came out. From the TV feed I saw the signal for the P/S but ultimately it never happened, not sure how the rule applies to that scenario.

EDIT: Here is the rule "A defending player, except the goalkeeper, shall not be permitted to fall on the puck, hold the puck or gather the puck into the body or hands when the puck is within the goal crease.
PENALTY—Penalty shot/optional minor; an additional penalty shall not be assessed."

So yeah, he gloved it and fell on it but it remained loose so who knows what the rationale is behind the eventual call. Again, my guess is that him not containing the puck and causing the stoppage was why they did not award the penalty shot.

 

[Dan]

Looking at the numbers (box score) does not tell the full story. It just tells you who was on the ice when you got scored against on the pk. It does not show the players who were on the ice when you did not get scored on during the pk. Every coaching staff has the video of all of their penalty kills for the season and all of their power plays and many other areas of the game. They need to pull out all players' time on ice per goal scored against. A player who gets scored against for every 15 minutes of penalty kill time should be playing more than a player who gets scored against every 5 minutes of penalty kill time on ice! The player getting scored on every 5 minutes of penalty kill time should be playing less or not at all on the pk.

Absolutely correct. I’d imagine the coaches have this information because you are entirely right about it’s importance. I just wanted to look at goals against to get an idea for who they’re relying on in PK situations- as even the most successful PKers are going to give up more goals when they’re killing most of the penalties...

The results match up with who I’ve seen killing penalties and UNH seems to have four preferred defenseman and four preferred forwards. With a fifth forward getting notable minutes on the shorthand. In that instance the numbers line up fairly well with who I see on the ice in these situations...

Obviously the numbers are not all created equal - for example all four defenseman have allowed between 8-10 PK goals against, but I would imagine it’s very likely that two of them are first over the boards as often as possible and playing more PK minutes than the other two. Of course I don’t know that which is why you’re dead on about the need to analyze this at a deeper level. I personally just don’t have the means. The coaches do and hopefully they’re doing the leg work because the analysis is necessary if not old school...

At forward for example, the raw numbers indicate high GA totals for the four main forwards. Two of them were significant pieces to a strong PK the last two seasons, while two others seem like less obvious fits on this type of unit. Again the numbers are just a jumping off point for further investigation, but it’s all I really have at my disposal.

In doing the analysis one might learn that the experienced PK skaters were carried by stronger PKers of the last couple seasons (Nazarian, BVR, Vela, etc) or that the new PKers are not great fits. Or anything in between...

I think we agree entirely on the idea that a complete research including both eye test and analysis is what is needed to get to the root of the problem and if that turns off some fans, so be it in my opinion, as long as UNH gets things turned around...

I do think there might be something to the idea of asking too much of certain players to be your standouts in all three phases of the game. And my eye test tells me that MacAdams and Esposito, especially, have specific traits to fill (as well as a history of filling) this role. If analysis backs that up - and they certainly haven’t been regularly victimized on the PK - then I think it’s worth a shot. Engaras is another player who seems a natural fit and hopefully will continue to see more run on the unit as he gets more comfortable in the line up...

Other than being the best players - I don’t know that the F’s given first crack were necessarily the best fits for this specific role by eye test or analysis. I’d be very interested in PPGA/M and video might otherwise suggest - and I suppose we’ll learn what they suggest over the next couple weeks as adjustments are made or not...

 

[Ray Dorn]

Re: UNH Hockey: Treading Water or Trending Upward

Dan,

I think we are on the same page here. I do not like to be negative. I feel like I am observing an accident about to happen and I can't do anything about it.

I do not know the answer here. It may be the wrong strategy with the right players. It may be the right strategy with the wrong players. Or it may be both the wrong strategy for this year's team and using the wrong players. I don't know, but it needs to be figured out.

 

[Aerman]

I'm wondering if he decided not to go with a P/S because although the Dman gloved it down it remained loose as it came out under his leg which triggered the review for a goal after the puck made it a certain distance underneath the player towards the goal after a follow up UNH shot. Not entirely knowing the rule, I'm guessing that the official saw him glove it down and thought he fell on top of it (covering it in the crease) but then saw that he never actually covered it as the puck then came out. From the TV feed I saw the signal for the P/S but ultimately it never happened, not sure how the rule applies to that scenario.

EDIT: Here is the rule "A defending player, except the goalkeeper, shall not be permitted to fall on the puck, hold the puck or gather the puck into the body or hands when the puck is within the goal crease.
PENALTY—Penalty shot/optional minor; an additional penalty shall not be assessed."

So yeah, he gloved it and fell on it but it remained loose so who knows what the rationale is behind the eventual call. Again, my guess is that him not containing the puck and causing the stoppage was why they did not award the penalty shot.

This is the camp I’m in. He may have tried to cover the puck - or not - but he didn’t succeed as it popped out behind him. Then the UNH guy slapped it back under him, but you couldn’t tell from the video if it crossed the goal line.