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UNH 2025 Offseason: Where in the World is MS7?

Dan said:
What an interesting turn of events, considering Papagiorgio called me a drug user for suggesting Conmy would be an impact scorer for BC...
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Just Nick being Nick. He probably means it as a term of endearment. It's usually a strong indicator that you're over the target.
 
Chuck Murray said:
Just to add to the mix ... like recent UNH teammates Ryan Conmy and Luke Reid, Gagne was a 6th round NHL draft pick. "Hope & pray" territory, extremely unlikely to ever establish themselves as pension-drawing NHLPA members, and unlikely period to even make it to The Show.

There are seven (7) rounds overall in each recent NHL Draft. Below is a link to the 2020 NHL Draft, where you can see both Reid and Filip Engaras drafted in the sixth round, only a few players apart. We are now five (5) years out from that draft ... and as you can see, Rounds 5 thru 7 contain mostly players you've never heard of (or will never hear from in the future). Rounds 1 and 2 are the players who regularly hit, and are considered "busts" if they don't hit. Round 3 players are closer to 50-50 shots, and 4th rounders tumble to 25% reaches, most with low potential "ceilings". The 2021 Draft (Gagne's year) looks similar.

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2020e.html

Just for craps & giggles, I noticed DRW had three second rounders in the 2020 Draft. One (Neiderbach) never developed, so he's a clear "bust". Cross Hanas (now 23) has stalled at the AHL level, and will probably be cut loose by the organization in the next year or so. Wallinder (1st pick 2nd round) has actually developed well at AHL level, and has a 50-50 shot at sticking with DRW as a 7th D-man next season out of camp, depending on what else Yzerman does in their offseason. The difference between a second round pick and a sixth round pick is exponential. You expect to hit a 2nd rounder; you hope on a 6th.

So, "NHL draft picks" are not created equal. Gagne surely got drafted based on his size, in hopes the rest of his game could be developed over time. I doubt TBL has spent a whole lot of time - other than due diligence - on monitoring Gagne's development. On the other hand, LAK is probably paying a decent amount of attention to Conmy, whether it's through their scouting network OR informal contacts with a UNH assistant with solid past LAK ties (Guiliano), and he's probably (at least so far) overperforming his draft position, maybe effectively being the equivalent of a 4th or even 3rd round pick. Reid and Engaras never got to even sign an NHL ELC (entry level contract), which is not unusual for a late pick. It shouldn't be a shock that Gagne hasn't been offered an ELC yet by TBL - and no, it's not that he's playing coy or negotiating ... if you're a typical 6th round pick and offered an ELC, you have no leverage, you sign it, and you go play wherever they tell you to play. OR you sign a tryout deal (like Reid) and go play in the Coast (ECHL), and hope things break for you.

So please readers, keep perspective ... and if I'm pessimistic about/downplay the future of 6th round picks, it's not personal - it's objective and historical.
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What does Chuck say about Dan Winnik being a 9th round pick, Bob Gould a 7th round pick, Jaime Hislop an 8th round pick, Dave Lumley a 12th rounder, Andy Brickley a 10th rounder, Bruce Crowder a 9th rounder, and Eric Boguniecki an 8th rounder? And, then we have several UNH alums who played more than 100 games in The Show who were not drafted, like TvR, John Gray, Bryan Muir, Mark Mowers, Ty Conklin, Jason Krog, CdS, Bobby Butler, Trevor Smith, and Jeff Lazaro.
 
Snively65 said:
What does Chuck say about Dan Winnik being a 9th round pick, Bob Gould a 7th round pick, Jaime Hislop an 8th round pick, Dave Lumley a 12th rounder, Andy Brickley a 10th rounder, Bruce Crowder a 9th rounder, and Eric Boguniecki an 8th rounder? And, then we have several UNH alums who played more than 100 games in The Show who were not drafted, like TvR, John Gray, Bryan Muir, Mark Mowers, Ty Conklin, Jason Krog, CdS, Bobby Butler, Trevor Smith, and Jeff Lazaro.
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For all of the Holt Era guys, the NHL Draft involved far less teams, and most of the players drafted came out of North America in those days. Smaller pool. And for the Kullen/Umile Era guys, many of them undrafted, most had abbreviated NHL careers. Even TvR has made a great career out of being a 3rd pairing D-man.

Winnik spent most of his (admittedly long) NHL career as a bottom six role player, who stayed in his lane. Bogey burnt brightly for a season-plus on a mediocre team (at the time), and his career in The Show didn't last too long. Of the drafted guys you mentioned, I think Bobby Gould had the most impactful NHL career, but he never sniffed a Stanley Cup with some building Washington Capitals teams. BTW ... how did you leave Rod Langway out of this discussion, Snives??

Love all of those guys you mentioned BTW, but of the bunch of them, I wonder if maybe a half dozen (including Langway) are drawing a full NHLPA pension?
 
Chuck Murray said:
For all of the Holt Era guys, the NHL Draft involved far less teams, and most of the players drafted came out of North America in those days. Smaller pool. And for the Kullen/Umile Era guys, many of them undrafted, most had abbreviated NHL careers. Even TvR has made a great career out of being a 3rd pairing D-man.

Winnik spent most of his (admittedly long) NHL career as a bottom six role player, who stayed in his lane. Bogey burnt brightly for a season-plus on a mediocre team (at the time), and his career in The Show didn't last too long. Of the drafted guys you mentioned, I think Bobby Gould had the most impactful NHL career, but he never sniffed a Stanley Cup with some building Washington Capitals teams. BTW ... how did you leave Rod Langway out of this discussion, Snives??

Love all of those guys you mentioned BTW, but of the bunch of them, I wonder if maybe a half dozen (including Langway) are drawing a full NHLPA pension?
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Or Steve Leach. But both he and Langway were drafted, so not sure how those facts impact the case...
 
bakchk20 said:
Or Steve Leach. But both he and Langway were drafted, so not sure how those facts impact the case...
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I left out Langway and Leach because they were NHL-drafted in the second round (#36 overall by Canadians in ‘77 and #34 by Caps in ‘84, respectively), so they were expected to make hay in the Show (“expect to hit a 2nd rounder” in Chuck’s words). Chuck also in his post noted that “you hope on a 6th” round pick. So I chose some positive UNH examples of “hope” prevailing in the NHL for lower than 6th round picks (round 7-12, which more than makes up for fewer NHL teams in most cases) to counter his “objective and historical” take. I have added below the overall NHL pick number (perhaps a better metric than round?) and number of teams in NHL at time drafted. I did not realize from Chuck’s original post meant that “hope” had to include a Stanley Cup or a long, top-two- line, NHL career.

Winnik, round 9, #265 overall, ‘04, 30 NHL teams, 798 NHL games played
Gould, 7, #118, ‘77, 18, 697
Hislop, 8, #140, ‘74, 18, 345+206 WHA
Lumley, 12, #199, ‘74, 18, 437, 2 SC’s
Brickley, 10, #210, ‘80, 21, 385
Crowder, 9, #153, ‘77, 18, 243
Boguniecki, 8, #193, ‘93, 24, 178
 
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