UNH hockey is facing and existential crisis. In light of the massive cuts coming from Concord to UNH, it seems unrealistic to expect UNH to be able to afford 26 scholarships year in and year out. The key issue is the future of HE programs that have uneven scholarship levels. NIL presents precisely the same problem. I think we all agree that UNH is unlikely to make NIL payments to players. At some point the max scholarship/NIL payment programs will form separate conferences from the others.
UNH will still be D1 in hockey but will compete in a conference with schools with similar resources. My guess is the max scholarship/NIL schools will be the following: BC, BU, UConn, UMass, ULowell, Providence, Maine, Northeastern and Merrimack. UNH and UVM will not be in that group.
The biggest question is Merrimack. ULowell scholarships will follow in lock step with UMass because both answer to the same master. NIL will be tough at UML but that will play out over time. The Mass state legislature will do something for that school. Merrimack is interesting. Hockey is its flagship sport and it's a private school. The scholarships will not be a huge issue for it - heck, it funds a scholarship football team. NIL will be tricky. A few wealthy donors may help out. Merrimack will at least try for a while.
Northeastern is a Beanpot school and is fully committed to hockey . New arena coming and well healed alumni base inside Rte 128. Same as BU obviously. Providence has hoop revenue and a proud strong alumni network and local non alumni that view Providence as its regional sports team.
UNH's problem is simple. The state is backing off higher education costs and the residents have a core belief that less is more (ie good coaching and a can do attitude can overcome lack of monetary investment). UVM is a program I'm not as familiar with so I'm going with what other people say.
Ten years from now my guess is you'll see Quinnipiac enter Hockey East with UNH and UVM leaving - perhaps Merrimack. A conference with UNH, UVM, Holy Cross, Bentley, Sacred Heart, Merrimack (?), and perhaps 3 NY schools (RIT, Niagara, Canisius) makes sense. What's interesting is if St Lawrence and RPI go looking for a new home.