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UNH 2018 Offseason- Out with the old , in with the semi new?

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Re: UNH 2018 Offseason- Out with the old , in with the semi new?

After the Whistle said:
Sisyphus, not a bad analogy. and the following will show you just how heavy that rock became.
In the last 20 years (since that year! yeah we all remember it) UNH has averaged 131 goals per year. If we break that down into 5 year increments we can really see how heavy the rock became.
98 - 02 we had a 150 goal a year average.
03 - 07 we had a 139 goal average. And 2 HE titles, alone or shared.
08 - 12 we slipped to 122
and the past 5 years 13 - 17 we continued the downward trend to 114. Yes, way better goal tending across HE the past 5-10 years, but you gotta score to win.
Click to expand...


Good stats, ATW. Here are more, based on your 5-year bins ending with the year listed, going back to the 1960s that some of us remember. Besides goals per game, I also calculated goal differentials (goals for vs goals against, which I think may be more meaningful than simply goals). But, I think that the real story lies within the last five years, shown at bottom. Surprise, surprise, but both of these stats seem to explain our win percentages.

5 bins W% GPG Goal Diff

1967-68 0.56 4.55 +24
1972-73 0.68 5.42 +48.8
1977-78 0.69 6.07 +64.6
1982-83 0.59 5.11 +25.6
1987-88 0.33 4.03 -33.2
1992-93 0.53 4.02 +10
1997-98 0.63 4.34 +36.6
2002-03 0.72 3.76 +55
2007-08 0.64 3.47 +36
2012-13 0.57 3.16 +15.6
2017-18 0.45 2.92 -.02

2013-14 0.55 3.07 +26
2014-15 0.50 2.98 +10
2015-16 0.38 3.03 -9
2016-17 0.44 3.10 -12
2017-18 0.36 2.92 -16
 
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Re: UNH 2018 Offseason- Out with the old , in with the semi new?

Apples to Oranges

Scoring has been down over the past 15+ years. Point well taken on the past 3 years but we were in top tier on offense until the last 3-5 years.
 
Re: UNH 2018 Offseason- Out with the old , in with the semi new?

Depends on ones definition of 'top' - a quick check while grocery shopping shows UNH hasn't finished in the top ten in scoring in ten seasons (2007-08). With only three other finishes at the very back end of the top-15 (top 25%)...

So they've pretty much been a middle 50% to lower scoring team for at least a decade. And that is ancient history. Goals for was the crucial problem last year (not the defensemen) and is the concern this year and that's really all that matters...
 
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Re: UNH 2018 Offseason- Out with the old , in with the semi new?

I know I am a big time UMaine fan... But I lost a family member that was a huge UNH fan. Rest in peace Erin. :(
 
Re: UNH 2018 Offseason- Out with the old , in with the semi new?

BlackI said:
I know I am a big time UMaine fan... But I lost a family member that was a huge UNH fan. Rest in peace Erin. :(
Click to expand...

Sorry for your loss, and condolences to you and your family.
 
Re: UNH 2018 Offseason- Out with the old , in with the semi new?

BlackI said:
I know I am a big time UMaine fan... But I lost a family member that was a huge UNH fan. Rest in peace Erin. :(
Click to expand...

So sorry for you loss...and heard about UMaine losing that football player as well...:(
 
Re: UNH 2018 Offseason- Out with the old , in with the semi new?

Snively65 said:
Good stats, ATW. Here are more, based on your 5-year bins ending with the year listed, going back to the 1960s that some of us remember. Besides goals per game, I also calculated goal differentials (goals for vs goals against, which I think may be more meaningful than simply goals). But, I think that the real story lies within the last five years, shown at bottom. Surprise, surprise, but both of these stats seem to explain our win percentages.

5 bins W% GPG Goal Diff

1967-68 0.56 4.55 +24
1972-73 0.68 5.42 +48.8
1977-78 0.69 6.07 +64.6
1982-83 0.59 5.11 +25.6
1987-88 0.33 4.03 -33.2
1992-93 0.53 4.02 +10
1997-98 0.63 4.34 +36.6
2002-03 0.72 3.76 +55
2007-08 0.64 3.47 +36
2012-13 0.57 3.16 +15.6
2017-18 0.45 2.92 -.02

2013-14 0.55 3.07 +26
2014-15 0.50 2.98 +10
2015-16 0.38 3.03 -9
2016-17 0.44 3.10 -12
2017-18 0.36 2.92 -16
Click to expand...

Back at you Snively, nice job.
I also looked at how many 1 goal losses this team had after scoring only 88 goals. I believe it was 9 and if you add 2 that they lost in OT that is 11. Plus 6 ties. This team was in a lot more games than it felt like. Or maybe beclose and losing was the real cause of pain as we exited various arenas.
With that in hand and a very green freshman class, that I think will prove to be one of the best in years, I have projected 48 more goals from the returning upperclassmen and the freshmen. That moves us to 118 (yes very optimistic) and now Snively 65, I am willing to say ...we will win more that we lose.
 
Re: UNH 2018 Offseason- Out with the old , in with the semi new?

OK, a PSA for STH's ---

If you re-ordered your tickets online, check your receipt on the website. It seems that they ARE including tickets for an exhibition game scheduled for 10/6? Obviously someone knows something that we don't know?? :confused:
 
After the Whistle said:
Back at you Snively, nice job.
I also looked at how many 1 goal losses this team had after scoring only 88 goals. I believe it was 9 and if you add 2 that they lost in OT that is 11. Plus 6 ties. This team was in a lot more games than it felt like. Or maybe beclose and losing was the real cause of pain as we exited various arenas.
With that in hand and a very green freshman class, that I think will prove to be one of the best in years, I have projected 48 more goals from the returning upperclassmen and the freshmen. That moves us to 118 (yes very optimistic) and now Snively 65, I am willing to say ...we will win more that we lose.
Click to expand...

Ha, ha, ha, ATW; you are even more optimistic than I or HR. I am still taking the over on 14.5 wins, with perhaps a 0.500 record, such as 15-15-4.

Trivia quiz, based on your last sentence: what Boston sports manager said that his team would win more games than it would lose?
 
Re: UNH 2018 Offseason- Out with the old , in with the semi new?

Snively65 said:
Ha, ha, ha, ATW; you are even more optimistic than I or HR. I am still taking the over on 14.5 wins, with perhaps a 0.500 record, such as 15-15-4.

Trivia quiz, based on your last sentence: what Boston sports manager said that his team would win more games than it would lose?
Click to expand...

Whitey Bulger? haha No, here's the answer. And, yes, I looked it up....

http://lonepinesports.bangordailynews.com/2017/07/27/50-years-ago-the-impossible-dream/
 
HockeyRef said:
Whitey Bulger? haha No, here's the answer. And, yes, I looked it up....

http://lonepinesports.bangordailynews.com/2017/07/27/50-years-ago-the-impossible-dream/
Click to expand...

Yes, Dick Williams at the beginning of the Sox 1967 Impossible Dream season. Strangely there is an error by Chris Chavis in his article stating that the Sox had not been in a World Series since 1945.

Williams' "We will win more games than we will lose" was borrowed a couple of decades later by a Sox GM, who is perhaps more famous for saying at the beginning of the 1987 season "The sun will rise, the sun will set, but I will have lunch." Who am I?
 
Re: UNH 2018 Offseason- Out with the old , in with the semi new?

Snively65 said:
Williams' "We will win more games than we will lose" was borrowed a couple of decades later by a Sox GM, who is perhaps more famous for saying at the beginning of the 1987 season "The sun will rise, the sun will set, but I will have lunch." Who am I?
Click to expand...

Have to think GM circa 1987 would have been Lou Gorman? Met him at a Pawsox game probably around that same timeframe when I was a kid, signed autographs for everyone waiting. Nice guy.
 
UNH1932 said:
Apples to Oranges

Scoring has been down over the past 15+ years. Point well taken on the past 3 years but we were in top tier on offense until the last 3-5 years.
Click to expand...

No, not apples to oranges. The point of the post, and my laborious calculations, was that a team that has a -16 goal differential in a season (about half a goal per game) is unlikely to win more games than it loses. Who cares how good the offense is if the defense stinks (2-3 years ago), or how good the defense is if the offense stinks (last year)?
 
Nick Papagiorgio said:
Have to think GM circa 1987 would have been Lou Gorman? Met him at a Pawsox game probably around that same timeframe when I was a kid, signed autographs for everyone waiting. Nice guy.
Click to expand...

Right-o, Nick. Cool that you got to meet Lou. Never heard him utter a bad word about anyone, or anyone about him.
 
Re: UNH 2018 Offseason- Out with the old , in with the semi new?

Snively65 said:
Yes, Dick Williams at the beginning of the Sox 1967 Impossible Dream season. Strangely there is an error by Chris Chavis in his article stating that the Sox had not been in a World Series since 1945.
Click to expand...

He missed by all of one (1) season. Maybe the copy editor was nearsighted? :)
 
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