UMASS-NEWMASS 2025-2026

[LazyEyeGuy]

I think this is a good article with some food for thought. I thought a win at UCONN and a OT win in Amherst would have really helped UMASS' NPI since UCONN was rated much higher. Instead nothing really changed. It seems like wins don't move a team so much but a loss is devastating.

Donato: When the numbers lie

Why UMass hockey’s five-point weekend couldn’t outscore the NPI’s conference bias.

dailycollegian.com

Agree. This guys makes a pretty strong case for UMass.

I think his point about the top to bottom spread being wide in the CCHA vs HEA being much more competitive top to bottom is right on. The result is that it punishes the more competitive leagues for the post season. And the competition in HEA is particularly brutal this year—even the teams at the bottom of the league are decent. It’s hurt HEA all season (although I guess you could argue the league benefitted last season).

I’m a BC fan, but I’d be pissed if I were a UMass fan.

 

[Jack Hanson]

I don’t think it’s possible to come up with a completely fair rating system. Especially on the fringes. I certainly won’t shed any tears if/when they lose out on a bid. UMass blew it when they went 2-6 in November.

 

[LazyEyeGuy]

I don’t think it’s possible to come up with a completely fair rating system. Especially on the fringes. I certainly won’t shed any tears if/when they lose out on a bid. UMass blew it when they went 2-6 in November.

You sound like a bc fan. Must be the water in Massachusetts!

 

[Jack Hanson]

It blows my mind that the Minutemen could finish second. They got to 20 wins so this season is already a success. And they owe it mostly to Hrabel after a seriously bad first half.

They still suck at faceoffs and Murray should be a forward. He’s one of the better offensive players on a team with few scoring options and he is a lousy defender.

Beat UNH, BC and UCONN lose and there it is, the two seed. Incredible.

 

[kahunak]

I don’t think it’s possible to come up with a completely fair rating system. Especially on the fringes. I certainly won’t shed any tears if/when they lose out on a bid. UMass blew it when they went 2-6 in November.

While no system is perfect, the system used needs to be seen as fair and understandable. A win away and OT win at home against a higher ranked opponent should move the needle a bit. In the wins against UCONN, no movement. Yesterday UMASS beats BC at home and they jump two spots. Strange.

 

[Jack Hanson]

For fun go to the CHN NPI optimizer and change exactly one result, the Army game.

As Al Davis used to say, just win baby. The rest takes care of itself.

 

[Nick Papagiorgio]

A win away and OT win at home against a higher ranked opponent should move the needle a bit. In the wins against UCONN, no movement.

I thought a win at UCONN and a OT win in Amherst

I hate to point this out but UMass did not beat Yukon twice last weekend. They won and tied.

 

[CornellFan13]

I think this is a good article with some food for thought. I thought a win at UCONN and a OT win in Amherst would have really helped UMASS' NPI since UCONN was rated much higher. Instead nothing really changed. It seems like wins don't move a team so much but a loss is devastating.

Donato: When the numbers lie

Why UMass hockey’s five-point weekend couldn’t outscore the NPI’s conference bias.

dailycollegian.com

The author of this article doesn't seem to understand how NPI works. A team's NPI is basically just a function of its (1) win percentage and (2) strength of schedule. Which is essentially the same as the Pairwise, yet the author ends the article by saying: "There are many reasons why the NPI doesn’t make sense for ranking collegiate hockey, and it all starts with the move away from Pairwise." If you look at the Pairwise, it's almost exactly the same as the NPI. The author cites things such as some teams' best three wins and worst three losses, but the NPI takes all of these into account--as well as all the rest of those teams' games. The author also refers to some teams moving up or down this past weekend based on their individual results, but the NPI doesn't just look at a team's results, it also looks at the rest of the games throughout the country and how they affect that team's strength of schedule.

Could the NPI be flawed? Maybe, but it's basically the same thing as the Pairwise, and also basically the same thing as RPI, which most other college sports use to determine their postseasons.

 

[kahunak]

Well, well, well....so you say there is still a chance! Not sure what to make of last night's games. BC, BU and UCONN decide to self-destruct while UMASS continues its hot streak. Does this mean that HE is loaded with lots of good teams or just mediocre ones (except for Providence). UMASS needs to win at least one game in the HE tournament to keep its hopes alive unless of course every other HE teams in NCAA contention continue to lose. What a great second half of the season after such a rocky start.

 

[Jack Hanson]

I never doubted them for a minute. Hours and hours maybe, but not for a minute.

This is all on Hrabel who I absolutely had no faith in too. The rest of the team has looked mediocre. They are going to need the top two lines to start picking up the scoring load, tout suite. Hrabel is due for an off game.

 

[Jack Hanson]

The one team I didn't want to see, for the 5th time, was Northeastern. I hate this matchup. The Minutemen don't many things well. They are 2nd worst in the conference in faceoffs, powerplays, and shots/game; third worst in goals/game. Alt;hough the Minutemen are the biggest team in conference, they rarely use that to their advantage, although lately they seem a little more physical. They're slower than the Huskies for sure, especially Dylan with the 7 consonants in his surname.

The one advantage they do have is Hrabel. And that might be enough to carry the day once more. It's win or go home.

 

[kahunak]

The author of this article doesn't seem to understand how NPI works. A team's NPI is basically just a function of its (1) win percentage and (2) strength of schedule. Which is essentially the same as the Pairwise, yet the author ends the article by saying: "There are many reasons why the NPI doesn’t make sense for ranking collegiate hockey, and it all starts with the move away from Pairwise." If you look at the Pairwise, it's almost exactly the same as the NPI. The author cites things such as some teams' best three wins and worst three losses, but the NPI takes all of these into account--as well as all the rest of those teams' games. The author also refers to some teams moving up or down this past weekend based on their individual results, but the NPI doesn't just look at a team's results, it also looks at the rest of the games throughout the country and how they affect that team's strength of schedule.

Could the NPI be flawed? Maybe, but it's basically the same thing as the Pairwise, and also basically the same thing as RPI, which most other college sports use to determine their postseasons.

While I usually like objective measures, I also look at fairness and common sense when deciding whether it is a good measure. Right now the NPI is questionable. The reason it makes me question the usefulness is that it is possible that Hockey East only gets one team in the NCAAs, while ECAC has three teams going and CCHA might get 2 or 3 in. When you look at head to head conference win/loss % the CCHA was 0-5-1 and the ECAC was 16-21-3 versus Hockey East. CCHA was .412 and ECAC was .461 against non-conference teams while Hockey East was .601. It seems that something is wrong. If HE only gets only one team I think there might be a need to review how this makes sense.

 

[DLG]

While I usually like objective measures, I also look at fairness and common sense when deciding whether it is a good measure. Right now the NPI is questionable. The reason it makes me question the usefulness is that it is possible that Hockey East only gets one team in the NCAAs, while ECAC has three teams going and CCHA might get 2 or 3 in. When you look at head to head conference win/loss % the CCHA was 0-5-1 and the ECAC was 16-21-3 versus Hockey East. CCHA was .412 and ECAC was .461 against non-conference teams while Hockey East was .601. It seems that something is wrong. If HE only gets only one team I think there might a need to review how this makes sense.

Agree somewhat- what killed hockey east was more balance in league and bottom teams beating top teams
Vermont finished last with 8 wins most in conference history

 

[CornellFan13]

While I usually like objective measures, I also look at fairness and common sense when deciding whether it is a good measure. Right now the NPI is questionable. The reason it makes me question the usefulness is that it is possible that Hockey East only gets one team in the NCAAs, while ECAC has three teams going and CCHA might get 2 or 3 in. When you look at head to head conference win/loss % the CCHA was 0-5-1 and the ECAC was 16-21-3 versus Hockey East. CCHA was .412 and ECAC was .461 against non-conference teams while Hockey East was .601. It seems that something is wrong. If HE only gets only one team I think there might be a need to review how this makes sense.

It just so happens that there are a ton of Hockey East teams bunched up outside the top 16. That's flukish and won't be the case in a typical year, but it doesn't mean the NPI is failing to select the 16 most deserving teams. If each of those HE teams had won a couple more games, then there could be five or six HE teams in the NCAAs.

 

[kahunak]

It just so happens that there are a ton of Hockey East teams bunched up outside the top 16. That's flukish and won't be the case in a typical year, but it doesn't mean the NPI is failing to select the 16 most deserving teams. If each of those HE teams had won a couple more games, then there could be five or six HE teams in the NCAAs.

So, after last night's results and if Dartmouth loses in the ECAC tourney, the ECAC will have 4 teams in the NCAAs and HE might only have one or two. SOS for Q-39, Cornell 41, Dartmouth 55. If UMASS loses today with a SOS of 29, 21 wins AND finishing 2nd in HE, they will miss the NCAAs. Something is wrong. The strategy is schedule lousy teams and win lots of games.

 

[Jack Hanson]

Would you like some cheese with your whine?

Beat Army last fall, UMA is still in play. Ditto second Omaha game. Or the second Cornell game. And probably half a dozen other games.

PWR doesn’t give you what you want. Nor does KRACH. So what the hell do YOU propose to fix this so-called injustice? Bonus points for merely being in HEA?

I suggest winning more games.

 

[Jack Hanson]

It was nothing fancy, but a very solid effort by the Minutemen. One of their best of the season, at least the best I've seen. They were moving out of their own end much more effectively. I don't know if NU didn't have the personnel for a strong forecheck or what. Maybe keeping the two 'C's on separate pairings helped. Murray and Olvested always seem to be the guys on the ice when they're hemmed in. In any case it worked. This was the most I've seen out of Charlie Lieberman since he first put on a UMass uniform. He's big, a bit slow and lumbering though. Pretty much everyone contributed.

Up next Merrimack. I like this matchup, which given my season-long track record of prognostications probably means they're doomed. It's another win or go-home scenario. On the plus-side, HEA guaranteed two in the tournament, and still a chance for three. I think we're rooting for either Cornell or Dartmouth to take the ECAC bid, since Q once again coughed up a lung. I'm not sure who to root for in the CCHA, they might be looking at just one bid.

I'm going to hold my breath now while K-man explains how he would fix the NPI. So far I'm hearing scheduling soft teams - which UMass did this year - and win those games. Which they did not. Which comes back to my original post, just win baby!

 

[RENCEB]

No one enjoys that crap. While I'm in an old man "get off my lawn" mode, this doesn't go far enough. I've always hated the incessant, piped-in music that gets played the millisecond after a stoppage that continues until a millisecond after the next face-off. Every effing arena does it, it's worse in the pros. It's like, the game isn't excited enough on its own? If you have a live band, great, wail away. All piped in music should be banned everywhere. Get off my Lawn!

Preach Brother Hanson, preach!! As someone in your age demographic, I loathe the incessant, blaring music within a micro-second of a stop in play at Spinal Tap level volume (11 if you must).
Well another 'Mack vs Mass matchup. I thought the weekend sweep by you guys mid January was really what ignited your second half run. I posted earlier that if Hrabel is on (which he has been for a while now) you guys could run the table and it could still still happen.
'Mack has been playing really well (4-0-1 in their last 5) and went toe to toe with PC at their place, cashing in with a great goal in OT. No expectations on them which might be helpful.
Enjoy the game!

 

[CornellFan13]

So, after last night's results and if Dartmouth loses in the ECAC tourney, the ECAC will have 4 teams in the NCAAs and HE might only have one or two. SOS for Q-39, Cornell 41, Dartmouth 55. If UMASS loses today with a SOS of 29, 21 wins AND finishing 2nd in HE, they will miss the NCAAs. Something is wrong. The strategy is schedule lousy teams and win lots of games.

If that's the strategy, then please explain why the NCHC has 4 of its 9 teams in the NCAAs, and the Big 10will have up to 5 of its 7 teams in the NCAAs. There will be between 11 and 13 at-large bids. Likely 8 of them will come from the two best conferences in the country despite those conferences consisting of only 16 teams total.

 

[Jack Hanson]

Preach Brother Hanson, preach!! As someone in your age demographic, I loathe the incessant, blaring music within a micro-second of a stop in play at Spinal Tap level volume (11 if you must).
Well another 'Mack vs Mass matchup. I thought the weekend sweep by you guys mid January was really what ignited your second half run. I posted earlier that if Hrabel is on (which he has been for a while now) you guys could run the table and it could still still happen.
'Mack has been playing really well (4-0-1 in their last 5) and went toe to toe with PC at their place, cashing in with a great goal in OT. No expectations on them which might be helpful.
Enjoy the game!

Looking forward to this game rence. I was looking at Merrimack’s NCAA history and see they lost a hard fought game to the eventual champs in 2023. UMA has lost to the eventual champions the past two years. That’s three straight seasons an HEA team came up short in the regionals. Time to change the narrative. If not the Minutemen then I’ll be rooting for the Warriors.