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The States. It's 10th Amendment or bust!

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Re: The States. It's 10th Amendment or bust!

Another rat leaves the sinking ship.

This is the sort of retirement that makes Republicans queasy and Democrats salivate: GOP Rep. Frank LoBiondo, who has represented southern New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District for more than two decades, will reportedly retire at the end of this term. Had LoBiondo, one of the more pragmatic members of the Republican caucus, opted to run once more, Democrats would have been hard-pressed to unseat him: He’s never won re-election by less than double digits and has almost always prevailed by 20 points or more.

But with LoBiondo gone, everything will change. The 2nd District voted for Donald Trump by a 51-46 margin, but four years earlier, it went for Barack Obama by an even wider 54-45 spread. Now that it’s open, that swinginess makes this seat a prime target for Democrats.
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And another reason why winning in VA would be extra healthy for the country:

And there are almost assuredly more retirements to come. Indeed, an unnamed “Republican campaign official” told Politico on Tuesday not to be “surprised” if “several” more House GOP members announce their departures this week; the rest may be waiting until after Election Day. And food for thought: The rate of Republican departures is already higher than it was back in 2006. That year, Democrats netted 30 seats. They need 24 to retake the House in 2018.
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This is the kind of thing that could become a self-fulfilling prophesy. If Republicans in closely contested seats think (1) their re-election is going to be 50/50 at best, and (2) even if they win they may be looking at minority party status, we'll see a bunch of retirements including high profile ones from guys who see no point staying if they can't keep their committee appointments. Insofar as this fascist mutation of the GOP even has a center anymore, as their more moderate Members quit the party shifts even farther into reactionary insanity making it even harder to remain as a moderate without being primaried. Meanwhile, the GOP leadership has lost all its tools for controlling Freedumbers and other nutbars, so they can't protect themselves from being flanked.

Hopefully we can get that vicious cycle going and really drive a stake into the heart of this beast in 2018. Dump stripped of his majorities in either or both chambers becomes powerless and will obviously respond with even more ludicrously childish behavior. If handled correctly the GOP might not get his stink off them for a decade.
 
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Re: The States. It's 10th Amendment or bust!

ScoobyDoo said:
40% of women are voting for Gillespie. Nothing's changed.
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Unless 60% of men are voting for Gillespie, a 20-point deficit among women is a big deal.

Remember too: there are no electoral votes in this election. If Gillespie polls the same as Dump, he loses.
 
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Re: The States. It's 10th Amendment or bust!

Evangelicals 80%.
Whites 59%

My point is nothing is changing. At all. Gillespie may lose but Virginia already had a blue Governor.
 
Re: The States. It's 10th Amendment or bust!

From 538:

One very interesting tidbit from the exit poll is that Northam leads Gillespie 62-36 among voters who decided in the past week. If he goes on to win tonight, that would challenge the conventional wisdom that Northam ran a poor race.
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Re: The States. It's 10th Amendment or bust!

Of interesting note, the VA Libertarian candidate was in my high school graduating class.
 
Re: The States. It's 10th Amendment or bust!

If VA holds form, Gillespie will have an early lead, Dems will despair, then Northern Virginia will pile on for Northam and he'll win in a squeaker.
 
Re: The States. It's 10th Amendment or bust!

joecct said:
If VA holds form, Gillespie will have an early lead, Dems will despair, then Northern Virginia will pile on for Northam and he'll win in a squeaker.
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I was hoping to see some trend lines changing. I'm not really seeing that. At all.
 
Re: The States. It's 10th Amendment or bust!

ScoobyDoo said:
I was hoping to see some trend lines changing. I'm not really seeing that. At all.
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Go to the "Shift From 2016" option on the NYT page I just linked. I see a lot more blue than red. Thus far, at least.
 
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