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The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

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Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

gfmorris said:
I'm reading this way late, but here's how I've looked at this.



The conference wins comparison only happens when two (or more) teams are locked up. I would argue that a win is more valuable than two ties if only because many of those losses could be by close margins (or by blowouts). We know that ties are close, but unless we start dealing in goal margin more than winning percentage, well ...

At least tiebreaker three is by winning percentage down the table. That makes sense to me.

GFM
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yeah except there is no requirement that both teams play the team being compared to 4 times so MTU potentially loses a comparison with other teams for record vs MSU but only played them in Mankato, for example. Not to mention is it fair to say that Team A is better than Team B because they went 0-3-1 vs a team vs Team B that went 0-2-0? idk
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

Shirtless Guy said:
yeah except there is no requirement that both teams play the team being compared to 4 times so MTU potentially loses a comparison with other teams for record vs MSU but only played them in Mankato, for example.
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I'm willing to bet that they didn't think that it would come down to a three-or-more tiebreaker.

Anyhow, my model says that UAH has about a 1.6% chance of picking off Bemidji this weekend. The model is fuzzier about different values, and I need to fix that a bit. Right now I'm rounding to the nearest point, but arguing that three-point weekends happen often is wrong, and it's a problem with using a normal distribution (which it's not, but I'm not going to spend an amazing amount of time in modeling it any other way; I'll apply corrective factors in how the rounding is done).

GFM <— has it at 1,000 runs ... fun ...
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

manurespreader said:
I really hope that next year everyone makes it in. This will be unfair to someone.
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I like that two teams miss the playoffs. It makes the regular season mean something. Is it skewed by this year having one truly terrible team and 3rd through 9th being separated by two or three points? Yeah, it is, but you put a lot of non-stellar teams from two dissolved conferences together in one season where the sensational freshmen didn't come (probably because the league was of uncertain quality). All of those factors that would normally create churn didn't, and then there's the factor that UAA came together very quickly under Thomas. Is it any wonder that this league was tight? Do we feel that this spate of splits is a result of teams being evenly matched or teams playing unevenly? Reading everyone's team threads indicates more of the latter.

GFM
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

As a Ferris fan..... I also like the fact that two teams miss the playoffs. The regular season should matter. In the old CCHA, some teams had a 1st round bye if they finished high enough. I also liked that factor. It allowed the top teams to rest for a week and heal a few wounds. However that would only work, i think, if the league had 10 teams.
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

For my Maverick friends, we've got an online auction established for our local youth hockey association and cancer research fundraising event this weekend. One of the items is a signed David Backes Jersey. The link is below. There's also a signed 1980s olympic team photo.

https://www.biddingforgood.com/auction/AuctionHome.action?vhost=fmccs

We'll see you guys next weekend as Tech tries to grab home ice (I had to throw something wcha related into the post so it didn't come across as pure spam).
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

Simple solution if you don't like the tiebreakers: win more games. Doesn't matter where you finish in that tie break. If it doesn't come out in your favor, you must have gotten screwed somehow!
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

UAFHockeyFan314 said:
Last I heard, the Final Five was not going to be included with the season pass for America One. And a national TV deal was being brokered with NBCSN but I don't think that ever materialized.
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So....pony up....cheap skates ...... If you want to watch.........me..oh...I'll.....a......make my sisters kid get it and I'll bring over more good local beer then the feed bill.
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

gfmorris said:
I like that two teams miss the playoffs. It makes the regular season mean something. Is it skewed by this year having one truly terrible team and 3rd through 9th being separated by two or three points? Yeah, it is, but you put a lot of non-stellar teams from two dissolved conferences together in one season where the sensational freshmen didn't come (probably because the league was of uncertain quality). All of those factors that would normally create churn didn't, and then there's the factor that UAA came together very quickly under Thomas. Is it any wonder that this league was tight? Do we feel that this spate of splits is a result of teams being evenly matched or teams playing unevenly? Reading everyone's team threads indicates more of the latter.

GFM
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I don't think churn has anything to do with it. While I understand the guys who want someone to miss, if they had 26 points and were out, when someone with 27 points who they beat, was in, you can bet they'd be unhappy.I'd rather have byes like the ECAC does.
As far as playing unevenly... every team plays unevenly. Every team gets up more for some games than others, and every fan base blames their team's issues instead of crediting the other side with a good game plan, well executed. So I'd give evenly matched a lot more weight.

And you give Thomas too much credit.
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

I love the format that leaves teams out of the tournament. It makes the regular season more meaningful.

I'm sure next year's conference schedule will be cleaner. Nobody wants to see all those byes and non-conference games in the last few weeks of the season.

The tiebreakers are what they are, and were agreed to in advance. Quit your whining. Don't like the fact that one win is worth more than 2 ties?...win more games.

Don't like traveling to Alaska? There will be a spot open in Atlantic next year after UConn leaves...I'm sure they'd love to have you (whoever you are).

There, I think I've solved all the current issues.

You're welcome:)
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

RE: tie breakers, unfairness and hyper-analyticalism

Fact: two teams that are tied in points are, by definition TIED. One is not better than the other, they are TIED.

Fact: there is no way to make a series of tie breakers "fair" by any objective standard. Everyone has some hyper-analytical basis for their own "objective" sense of fairness as evidenced by the above discussions. Analysis of tie breakers, like Rock Scissors Paper Lizard Spock, just go round and round. Every single opinion on which of two teams is actually better can be effectively argued against with an equally valid alternative.

Therefore: tie breaker rules are not any sort of "fair" nuance to actually determine which team is better. The teams are the same, they are TIED by the only objective measurement that matters, points in the league. Tie breakers are simply objective rules by which TIED teams can be sorted for tournament purposes. We could just as easily put the names in a hat and draw seeds.

The possible exception is the simple case where two teams are tied, who have played each other with even numbers of home/away games ... but even then, how does that evaluate the teams at that point in time as opposed to earlier in the season? What is the purpose of the attempts at objectively seeding teams? To see which are best over the season, or best at that point in time. Again, round and round we go.

Don't fool yourself thinking that just because your team ends up higher than another team that you tied that anyone actually thinks that your team is better.

FWIW, seeing how this league shakes out (as I would have expected), I'm in favor of all 10 teams in the playoffs with a couple of byes. If this - or any other season - comes down to a flippin' TIE BREAKER to push a team out of the playoffs, as Fielding Mellish would say, it would be a total travesty of a mockery of a sham of a mockery of a travesty of two mockeries of a sham. I don't mind if a team misses the playoffs because of a point or two, but not a tie breaker.

It's certainly a fun game looking at the what-ifs for the next two weeks, but get over the tie breakers fercrissakes!
 
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Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

camilo said:
I didn't read the article, but UAH "the ultimate travel team"? Really? Hello... Alaska and UAA?
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Haven't we established at this point that no one really cares about them down here in the lower 48?

Or do we need a 100th Alaska travel conversation that devolves into a UAF hates UAA fight that then scrapes the bottom of the pony barrel?

The I'd don't even remember the flights being that long... but then again... beer.
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

stuckinwi said:
Haven't we established at this point that no one really cares about them down here in the lower 48?

Or do we need a 100th Alaska travel conversation that devolves into a UAF hates UAA fight that then scrapes the bottom of the pony barrel?

The I'd don't even remember the flights being that long... but then again... beer.
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Lower 48 or Outside as we refer to you from here.
And you're right about the travel. It sucks no matter who's doing it. But it's a reality.
And you got 5 points for your travel trouble. Not a bad trip from your perspective.
When the Nooks hung a couple of 7s on ya someone should've cared.
And the Nooks/Seawolf thing is a sports hate thing and you're right again. I should save it for the Nooks/Seawolf threads not a general thread thing. I can understand no one outside caring about that.
We've got some pretty good micro brews up here but you cheese heads have an infinite choice. I'm envious.
Bring a couple of growlers when you come and we'll provide the smoked salmon.
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

Seawolf Fan said:
Lower 48 or Outside as we refer to you from here.
And you're right about the travel. It sucks no matter who's doing it. But it's a reality.
And you got 5 points for your travel trouble. Not a bad trip from your perspective.
When the Nooks hung a couple of 7s on ya someone should've cared.
And the Nooks/Seawolf thing is a sports hate thing and you're right again. I should save it for the Nooks/Seawolf threads not a general thread thing. I can understand no one outside caring about that.
We've got some pretty good micro brews up here but you cheese heads have an infinite choice. I'm envious.
Bring a couple of growlers when you come and we'll provide the smoked salmon.
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I've erased those post UAH, pre NMU games from my mind. Safer that way. :)

I'll take Alaska microbrews over the Wisconsin options any day. Alaska was fantastic for beer. FANTASTIC.

I do miss the one meal a day salmon diet though... :) That you can't get here for sure.




Back to hockey. This bye week thing sucks.
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

stuckinwi said:
I've erased those post UAH, pre NMU games from my mind. Safer that way. :)

I'll take Alaska microbrews over the Wisconsin options any day. Alaska was fantastic for beer. FANTASTIC.

I do miss the one meal a day salmon diet though... :) That you can't get here for sure.




Back to hockey. This bye week thing sucks.
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The four Anchorage brew pubs I visited plus the Silver Gulch at the airport were among the highlights! Pizza & brew at the Moose Tooth are a must!
 
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