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The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

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Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

gfmorris said:
Indeed, Tech and Northern are now 3/4, and I'll have to look at the conference tiebreakers to see how that comes down. As I've noted before, I'll do that either in Week 22 or 23, probably 22 because I said that I would. Thanks, oldish husky.

Edit: post is updated: http://uahhockey.com/blog/2014/02/02/krach-schedule-2/

GFM
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We knew that Mel has magic, but somehow Tech finishes in both 4th and 6th places! Tech hockey: We take yer spots.
 
manurespreader said:
As far as how scheduling goes, first, I am totally in favor of a bye after a trip north. Second, I don't care so much about the unbalanced schedule as long as the race is interesting, and I have to say this is the most interesting race in a long time. Third, it would be good if we could collectively figure out how to reduce travel costs.in.
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Good points here.
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

davyd83 said:
You will see some series with Eastern teams, although it will be fairly limited. Flights aren't cheap for either team.
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Maybe it will change in the future with the conference change, but MSU has had an east coast team trade 1 for 1 for at least the last 6 years. Yale, UCONN, Providence, RPI.
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

manurespreader said:
Geoff,
you might want to review your prognosis. You have Tech in there twice.
Who has the tie breaker between Alaska and Lssu. I have them tied for 8th at the end.
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I had a couple of typos in the predictions table that I've fixed. The spreadsheet is definitely right.

As for tiebreakers, that's covered here: http://uahhockey.com/blog/2014/01/14/krach-schedule-1/

The tiebreakers are: a) head-to-head points, but only if you’ve played four contests against each other, b) higher number of conference wins, c) comparison of winning percentages against all teams above them, team-by-team down through the table.
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For my comparisons, I've sorted descending order on points first and then wins second. I'll handle tiebreakers closer in. It probably won't be for next week, because I've got exams next week and probably shouldn't blow three or four hours on best-finish/worst-finish and tiebreakers when I should be playing industrial engineering graduate student.

GFM
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

gfmorris said:
I had a couple of typos in the predictions table that I've fixed. The spreadsheet is definitely right.

As for tiebreakers, that's covered here: http://uahhockey.com/blog/2014/01/14/krach-schedule-1/



For my comparisons, I've sorted descending order on points first and then wins second. I'll handle tiebreakers closer in. It probably won't be for next week, because I've got exams next week and probably shouldn't blow three or four hours on best-finish/worst-finish and tiebreakers when I should be playing industrial engineering graduate student.

GFM
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Maybe I'm an idiot (OK, I am an idiot), but why do you have Ferris with a zero loss season when they've already got 3 losses? Seems to me that it would be improbable for them to finish 14 points ahead of MSU when they are only 2 points ahead with 8/10 games to go.
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

Bale said:
Maybe I'm an idiot (OK, I am an idiot), but why do you have Ferris with a zero loss season when they've already got 3 losses? Seems to me that it would be improbable for them to finish 14 points ahead of MSU when they are only 2 points ahead with 8/10 games to go.
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You're looking at the Week 17 prediction, which was made when FSU was still undefeated and had a killer KRACH rating. At that point, it was reasonable to expect that they'd run undefeated. I've kept those projections week-by-week down below the current projection for historical perspective in how the rating has changed over time: how Ferris faltered but never dropped below Mankato (who just had too many 0-point games); how Tech has made a steady rise up the prediction table; how Alaska has been on the bubble the entire time; how Lake State has never been bad enough for the Truth Squatters to get their wish (an in-season firing of Jim Roque).

The easiest way to read the Summary tab is with the current table at left and the predictions to the right of that.

[Edit]: I realized after posting that you were looking at the URL from Week 17, which had Ferris running the table. The table has been edited since then, with a published update: http://uahhockey.com/blog/2014/02/02/krach-schedule-2/. I had linked to the old article because it had the tiebreaker information in it.

GFM
 
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Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

Also, hell: based on my current prediction table, there are ties:

#3/4: Northern Michigan (14-12-2) and Michigan Tech (13-11-4), both with 30 points. The UP foes have already split games with each other, and I predict that they'll split in Week 22. If they do, the tie would go to Northern if the results run as predicted, which they probably won't[/url]. But if they're going to contend for 3/4, that's going to be a big series. It'll be the difference between getting BG (5-6-3 away to date) and Anchorage (2-6-2) or maybe Bemidji (5-5-3). I would personally prefer to play the team with the worse travel situation.

#6/7: Alaska-Anchorage (12-12-4) and Bemidji State (11-11-6), both with 28 points. The two teams squared off in November in Minnesota, with the Beavs taking three points. But the HTH wins factor matters only if you play four times — which (I think it was) Matt Wellens posited exists because you want to avoid home-ice advantages to the one four-point weekend. That makes sense. The Beavs' win the first night was decisive (4-1), but the Seawolves stormed down from 3-1 to go up 4-3 with 15:27 left in regulation. Does that game go differently on big ice at the Sully with a crowd clad in green and gold cheering their guys on? We've all seen the home team rip off three unanswered goals and have the roof threaten to come off of the place.

I'm going to look at all tiebreaker possibilities (save teams tying twice in one weekend, which is possible but generally unlikely) prior to Week 23. Looking at this, the factors will be easier to do when there are fewer permutations.

GFM <— wishes that he had the time to build a Monte Carlo simulation of all of this that would provide worthwhile results.
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

gfmorris said:
You're looking at the Week 17 prediction, which was made when FSU was still undefeated and had a killer KRACH rating. At that point, it was reasonable to expect that they'd run undefeated. I've kept those projections week-by-week down below the current projection for historical perspective in how the rating has changed over time: how Ferris faltered but never dropped below Mankato (who just had too many 0-point games); how Tech has made a steady rise up the prediction table; how Alaska has been on the bubble the entire time; how Lake State has never been bad enough for the Truth Squatters to get their wish (an in-season firing of Jim Roque).

The easiest way to read the Summary tab is with the current table at left and the predictions to the right of that.

[Edit]: I realized after posting that you were looking at the URL from Week 17, which had Ferris running the table. The table has been edited since then, with a published update: http://uahhockey.com/blog/2014/02/02/krach-schedule-2/. I had linked to the old article because it had the tiebreaker information in it.

GFM
Click to expand...

See...I told you I was an idiot.:)
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

Does anyone know what NC games that each of the WCHA teams are scheduled to play next season?
Big 10? NCHC? AHA? Hockey East? ECAC?

If you know please list it?
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

Bowling Green has the following Non-Conference Schedule for next Season.

Home and Home with Ohio State
Home and Home with Miami
Home and Home with Robert Morris - BGSU home game outdoors at Fifth Third Field in Toledo, Ohio
2 at Clarkson - Clarkson 2 at BG the following year.


So 2 with each the Big Ten, ECAC, Atlantic Hockey, and NCHC
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

I know LSSU plays at North Dakota next season. They might play at Robert Morris (return trip) and Notre Dame (part of 2 for 1 deal) as well but I'm not sure. I haven't heard of any home non-conference games yet.
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

Bemidji will have two games in the North Star College Cup for sure. The pairings have not been announced yet.

I believe that the home and home series with North Dakota is continuing.

I think St. Cloud State is coming to Bemidji next year since BSU was there this past year.

Have not heard who the fourth series would be or where it would be at......
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

UAA and uaf are playing Wisconsin and Maine in the Kendall hockey classic, and playing Air Force and penn state in the Brice Alaska goal rush
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

MSU-M and UMD have a home and home series.
 
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