The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

BUT your methodology isn't fair, even if it is appealing to you. The teams that don't play UAH twice aren't necessarily getting an easier go of it otherwise, and there are more externalities to consider: who plays Ferris only twice? Mankato? Unbalanced schedules hurt everyone, and in this case, they do help all teams save BG and Anchorage (but especially BG).

I said this on Twitter, but I'd propose replacing all games against UAH with splits, which would be a neutral opponent and the most common WCHA result this year. That takes the scheduling effect out.

I know, you say that W% is where it's at, and I disagree.

GFM

well win % is the way to balance the uneven number of games played. It's not perfect, but its a better way to show where teams are right now.

Giving everyone 1-1-0 for a weekend instead of whatever they did against UAH does the following:
FSU 12 4 2 0.722
MSU 12 8 0 0.600
MTU 8 8 4 0.500
BGSU 9 10 3 0.477
NMU 8 9 1 0.472
UAA 8 10 2 0.450
BSU 7 9 4 0.450
LSSU 8 10 0 0.444
UA_ 8 12 2 0.409

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

Speaking of Win %, I really wish the WCHA would have everyone playing every weekend for the last month of the year. It would be nice to have everyone on equal ground for the last 4 weeks.

 

[uaafanblog]

Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

Balance the schedule. The WCHA 28 game conference schedule was stupid before the BIGs and Butt Hurts left; and it's still stupid. Look at where the conference's numbers (KRACH and Pairwise) are. This is going to be a theme for the WCHA in future years if they continue to play this insular schedule. There's plenty of teams to fill non-conference games with INCLUDING non-conference games against conference opponents if needed. Go to 18 games.

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

Balance the schedule. The WCHA 28 game conference schedule was stupid before the BIGs and Butt Hurts left; and it's still stupid. Look at where the conference's numbers (KRACH and Pairwise) are. This is going to be a theme for the WCHA in future years if they continue to play this insular schedule. There's plenty of teams to fill non-conference games with INCLUDING non-conference games against conference opponents if needed. Go to 18 games.

unbalanced schedules are the norm throughout sports nowadays...

 

[beaverhockeyfan]

Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

Just for giggles, I took a look at points per game and then took that times 28.

Ferris 43.5
Mankato 36.4
Alaska 30.8
Northern 29.6
Anchorage 29.4
Bowling Green 29.3
Bemidji State 28
Michigan Tech 28
Lake State 24.9
Huntsville 4.7

 

[uaafanblog]

Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

unbalanced schedules are the norm throughout sports nowadays...

All hail the status quo!!!

 

[purpleinnebraska]

Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

Balance the schedule. The WCHA 28 game conference schedule was stupid before the BIGs and Butt Hurts left; and it's still stupid. Look at where the conference's numbers (KRACH and Pairwise) are. This is going to be a theme for the WCHA in future years if they continue to play this insular schedule. There's plenty of teams to fill non-conference games with INCLUDING non-conference games against conference opponents if needed. Go to 18 games.

Then you'll have half the teams with 5 home series, and half with 4. With only 18 conference games, that can be a pretty big advantage/disadvantage.

Bottom line: Somebody's always going to be unhappy, but the more conference games you play, the less chance you have of a statistical anomaly.

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

Then you'll have half the teams with 5 home series, and half with 4. With only 18 conference games, that can be a pretty big advantage/disadvantage.

Bottom line: Somebody's always going to be unhappy, but the more conference games you play, the less chance you have of a statistical anomaly.

Not to mention the WCHA wants home games, the best way to guarantee they all get 16-18 home games is to have a 28 game conference schedule. The WCHA isn't getting many home games in NC play so I'm sure they'd love to play 12 home games?

As for the unhappy, I accept the unbalanced schedule and if/when we have 10 strong teams, it won't matter as much. Once UAH is able to recover from nearly losing the program this will be irrelevant (most likely).

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

Balance the schedule. The WCHA 28 game conference schedule was stupid before the BIGs and Butt Hurts left; and it's still stupid. Look at where the conference's numbers (KRACH and Pairwise) are. This is going to be a theme for the WCHA in future years if they continue to play this insular schedule. There's plenty of teams to fill non-conference games with INCLUDING non-conference games against conference opponents if needed. Go to 18 games.

By the way, the insular schedule isn't the problem. The fact that the WCHA has only won 38% of those NC games is the problem. You think cutting down to 18 Conference games and playing each other in NC games is going to help the WCHA in the pairwise rankings?

Winning NC games against NC opponents is the only way to get higher rankings beyond dominating your conference.

 

[Freddie]

Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

Not to mention the WCHA wants home games, the best way to guarantee they all get 16-18 home games is to have a 28 game conference schedule. The WCHA isn't getting many home games in NC play so I'm sure they'd love to play 12 home games?

As for the unhappy, I accept the unbalanced schedule and if/when we have 10 strong teams, it won't matter as much. Once UAH is able to recover from nearly losing the program this will be irrelevant (most likely).

How dare you attempt to introduce logic and realism to this thread?
How are the ignorant jack-holes of the world supposed to rant against this?
This is totally unfair, and you should be ashamed of yourself.

 

[gfmorris]

Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

Not to mention the WCHA wants home games, the best way to guarantee they all get 16-18 home games is to have a 28 game conference schedule. The WCHA isn't getting many home games in NC play so I'm sure they'd love to play 12 home games?

Bemidji fans can chime in here, too: playing just 20 league games sucked in the CHA, especially when you were playing unbalanced schedules to get there as the league's membership dwindled. We should have played 24 games as a four-team league, but no, we stayed with an unbalanced schedule.

GFM

 

[davyd83]

Balance the schedule. The WCHA 28 game conference schedule was stupid before the BIGs and Butt Hurts left; and it's still stupid. Look at where the conference's numbers (KRACH and Pairwise) are. This is going to be a theme for the WCHA in future years if they continue to play this insular schedule. There's plenty of teams to fill non-conference games with INCLUDING non-conference games against conference opponents if needed. Go to 18 games.

Really? 18 games? And how will you fill the other 16-18 games? Teams are having a difficult time getting 4 non conference home games now. Playing a 28 game conference schedule insures at least 14 home games. And if you play 18, that's 9 home and 9 road. That would mean a home & home series. That would be a major pain and expense to travel somewhere for one game. As far as schedule balance, NMU may have 4 against Huntsville, but they also have four each with Ferris & Mankato.

 

[manurespreader]

Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

Well I think the WCHA might be reconsidering playing all these early non con games vs HE, given the quality of officiating in their buildings.

If you haven't been to the WCHA web site and seen the activities that are planned around the final five, go. it's impressive.

 

[purpleinnebraska]

Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

Well I think the WCHA might be reconsidering playing all these early non con games vs HE, given the quality of officiating in their buildings.

I don't mean to sound petty (I am petty; I just don't mean to sound that way), but I think we ought to seriously consider not playing HE teams much in the future, and certainly only if we get a return visit the next year. There are plenty of western rivals we can schedule, and moreso, if we're going to be a 2 or 3 bid league, those bids will likely come at the expense of the ECAC. We did OK this year against the ECAC, and would be able to win some Pairwise matchups with them, if not for our dismal HE record. Let's just go head-to-head with the ECAC, and see how it works out.

 

[NMUFAN]

Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

Really? 18 games? And how will you fill the other 16-18 games? Teams are having a difficult time getting 4 non conference home games now. Playing a 28 game conference schedule insures at least 14 home games. And if you play 18, that's 9 home and 9 road. That would mean a home & home series. That would be a major pain and expense to travel somewhere for one game. As far as schedule balance, NMU may have 4 against Huntsville, but they also have four each with Ferris & Mankato.

Plus two separate trips to Alaska.

 

[davyd83]

I don't mean to sound petty (I am petty; I just don't mean to sound that way), but I think we ought to seriously consider not playing HE teams much in the future, and certainly only if we get a return visit the next year. There are plenty of western rivals we can schedule, and moreso, if we're going to be a 2 or 3 bid league, those bids will likely come at the expense of the ECAC. We did OK this year against the ECAC, and would be able to win some Pairwise matchups with them, if not for our dismal HE record. Let's just go head-to-head with the ECAC, and see how it works out.

Quick, name all those Western NCHC and Big 6-10-12-14 teams they are offering 1-for-1 deals. You won't find many.

 

[HuskyNation]

Quick, name all those Western NCHC and Big 6-10-12-14 teams they are offering 1-for-1 deals. You won't find many.

Right now, Michigan State and Duluth are the only two I can think of that would offer that....and have. I'm sure you can get it from Penn State...if you want it.

 

[pdt1081]

Quick, name all those Western NCHC and Big 6-10-12-14 teams they are offering 1-for-1 deals. You won't find many.

Miami, Ohio State, and Robert Morris will be doing home-and-homes with Bowling Green next season. BG also has two games at Clarkson with a return trip the following season.

 

[Jeff]

Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

The 28 game schedule looks goood to me. As for who plays who, I think it has just as much to do with when you play someone. As for UAH, give them one more year and anyone that watched the CHA in the past knows they won't stay down for long.

As for the home and home, I think they're great. North Dakota this year, Duluth a couple of years ago when they weren't division foes. I think St Cloud would make a good home and home series.

Non-conference; Bemidji has been pretty lucky. We've been treated pretty well by the teams in the NCHC and Big Ten.

 

[oldish husky]

Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

http://uahhockey.com/blog/2014/02/02/krach-schedule-2/

It turns out that Ferris-Mankato-BG are in (I'll probably sit down and do a best-worst analysis this week) and solidly in place. It looks like Northern will get to host a playoff series: 10 games left really helps them. UAH plays the current #6-9 teams, and any slip-ups could mean that they miss the playoffs, as just three points separate fifth (28) and 8th/9th (25), where I currently have Alaska finishing, BUT I will need to apply the WCHA's tiebreakers if that happens, and I don't want to try to apply that based on the suppositions that I'm making. It does look like they'll be needed, though.

Sorry, Nanooks fan. I'm just going with the numbers.

GFM

I was looking at your spreadsheet in google docs (because I had tried a similar predictive assessment myself). Yours is far more objective. However, I noticed that next weekend, you predict a split between UA and MTU, but your standings after that week show MTU accumulating two losses. I noticed this because your final prediction was a .500 record for MTU, but you have them sweeping UAH and splitting the rest of the series. If that happens, they should be 2 games over .500. Am I missing something?