There's a decent chance The Plan would have still worked to some degree, if Dump had won in 2020. The invasion would've started in Spring 2021 because Shitler would've pulled us out of NATO (the threshold for doing so is now higher), so there would've been zero US support for Ukraine (or any subsequent invasions of ex-Soviet territory) from 2022-2024
But Biden's election through a wrench in the works. With the US still committed to NATO and most of the member states prepared to also provide reserve equipment, funds, intel, and other non-troop support, it was now or never to try and blow his load before the EU states could rearm. In the end, his decrepit, corrupt, and uninspired military has fucked him over, but not before he's caused plenty of pain and chaos.