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The 2024 GQP Thread: Because Deutsche Gopher Fan ENDED the Last One

Handyman said:
bsky.app

Polling USA (@usapolling.bsky.social)

Generic Ballot Polling Among White Voters: 🔵 Democrats: 50% 🔴 Republicans: 46% Marist / Nov 13, 2025
bsky.app bsky.app

It won't last but still fun. Dems have lost the White Vote since the 60s.
Click to expand...
Specifically since the Voting Rights Act, when we learned it was not just the South that was racist, it was every uneducated white dipshit in America.
 
Massive enough to get over the levies Members have built for themselves in insuring their seats?

It will be a tsunami if he goes underwater with white males.
 
Kepler said:
Massive enough to get over the levies Members have built for themselves in insuring their seats?

It will be a tsunami if he goes underwater with white males.
Click to expand...
Experts I follow say yes. If Trump is underwater with White People** next November that backs up what the Virginia House saw where R+8 is in play to flip. Its 70+ seats and likely The Senate.






**There is almost no chance Trump will be underwater with White People by then this is all just academic. But it is catastrophic if it comes to pass because White People are the only group they hold. Latino gains are gone, Black People have no interest and Jews wont go higher than they did in 2024. In 2024 White People were 78% of Trumps vote...any dip of that is very bad and we know Trump Voters mostly ignore when he is off the ticket so its not good from the jump.
 
Handyman said:
Experts I follow say yes. If Trump is underwater with White People** next November that backs up what the Virginia House saw where R+8 is in play to flip. Its 70+ seats and likely The Senate.






**There is almost no chance Trump will be underwater with White People by then this is all just academic. But it is catastrophic if it comes to pass because White People are the only group they hold. Latino gains are gone, Black People have no interest and Jews wont go higher than they did in 2024. In 2024 White People were 78% of Trumps vote...any dip of that is very bad and we know Trump Voters mostly ignore when he is off the ticket so its not good from the jump.
Click to expand...

Also the Senate is the Senate. You don't get to play every seat so it can move differently. And it's purposefully laid out in a way that he'd have to lose white people by 50% for some of it to be in play.
 
Handyman said:
In 2024 White People were 78% of Trumps vote
Click to expand...

That is a great stat. Does it include people who identify themselves as Mixed? (90% of the time, those are Latino + White).

Can you link the source, please? I would love to dive into the crosstabs.

Thanks!
 
French Rage said:
Also the Senate is the Senate. You don't get to play every seat so it can move differently. And it's purposefully laid out in a way that he'd have to lose white people by 50% for some of it to be in play.
Click to expand...

I am truly heartened that people here from states who would lose influence if we made the Senate proportional have realized that would be a good thing not just for the country but for them. Wyoming having the same voting power as California is an electoral crime on the level of rotten and pocket boroughs in 18th century England.

Here is a way we could save the "cooling saucer" while still being rigorously equal. We could create National Senate Districts with cross-cutting political partisanships and adjust the borders by math based on each cycle's prior turnout. Make 13 of them, for symbolism. Each cycle, redraw the borders using deterministic math that is not subject to political manipulation to get as close to 50/50 going into the next cycle as possible. That would encourage running and governing to the center.

Here is something like a start, but it ignores partisanship.

24601081.jpg
 
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