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The 2018 midterm elections!

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Re: The 2018 midterm elections!

ScoobyDoo said:
Not only that but Clinton does not win in 1992 if Perot isn't in the race.
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That is a claim that has been debated for over 2 decades now. I don't believe you can say one way or another. Some polls showed Perot voters split, some studies show that many Perot voters would have stayed away from the election had he not run, while still others show he reduced Clinton's margin of victory or he reduced the votes for Bush. One study showed that 20% of Perot voters would have stayed away entirely had he not been in the race, meaning that the vast majority of people who voted for him would have had to have voted for Bush for Bush to win. Since exit polls showed the preference of Perot voters pretty much split between Clinton and Bush, my opinion is that Perot's absence would not have resulted in a different outcome. The 1992 presidential race was the last time I was ever undecided as Autumn approached. I seriously considered all three candidates before eventually voting for Bush.
 
Re: The 2018 midterm elections!

Fox News is really getting in the spirit of things. They flashed up pics of kamala harris when talking about a registered sex offender who murdered someone.
Fox apologied today.
 
Re: The 2018 midterm elections!

WeAreNDHockey said:
That is a claim that has been debated for over 2 decades now. I don't believe you can say one way or another. Some polls showed Perot voters split, some studies show that many Perot voters would have stayed away from the election had he not run, while still others show he reduced Clinton's margin of victory or he reduced the votes for Bush. One study showed that 20% of Perot voters would have stayed away entirely had he not been in the race, meaning that the vast majority of people who voted for him would have had to have voted for Bush for Bush to win. Since exit polls showed the preference of Perot voters pretty much split between Clinton and Bush, my opinion is that Perot's absence would not have resulted in a different outcome. The 1992 presidential race was the last time I was ever undecided as Autumn approached. I seriously considered all three candidates before eventually voting for Bush.
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Spot on. I often wonder why Scooby insists on parroting Republican talking points. :confused: Agreed that there's a significant portion of voters who came out for Perot and Perot only. Beyond that Bush was an unpopular incumbent heading into that summer. Politics 101 is if you're an unpopular incumbent running for re-election, you want more than one opponent running against you in order to split the vote. Perot hated Bush and campaigned accordingly. There's zero chance a majority of his voters would have turned around and voted FOR Bush had he not re-entered the race.

In short, once again, Scooby is an idiot. :D
 
Re: The 2018 midterm elections!

ScoobyDoo said:
Yep. I'm the idiot. Hillary is a lock.
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Scoobs, you're like the guy who used to predict the Red Sox would never win a world series (or the Cubs). Here in Boston we had a lot of people like you before 2004. If you keep repeating the same mantra, eventually the odds are that you'll be right once in awhile. That doesn't make you any less of an idiot! :D ;)
 
Re: The 2018 midterm elections!

Rover said:
Scoobs, you're like the guy who used to predict the Red Sox would never win a world series (or the Cubs). Here in Boston we had a lot of people like you before 2004. If you keep repeating the same mantra, eventually the odds are that you'll be right once in awhile. That doesn't make you any less of an idiot! :D ;)
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I'll list it again.

Hillary Clinton
John Kerry
Al Gore
Mike Dukakis
Walter Mondale

And the US has been pumping the hand cart to hell since 1980. And, being called Chicken Little after the sky (Trump) has already fallen is ****ing hilarious.
 
Re: The 2018 midterm elections!

Rover said:
In short, once again, Scooby is an idiot. :D
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Well if he's an idiot plenty of others are similarly afflicted. There are other people and studies that share his opinion. Elections are hard to predict and hard to study in review. After all, most people here were 100% certain and convinced trump didn't have a chance. Scooby called that correctly and was mocked. I was mocked when I even raised the possibility here that Clinton was one misstep away from losing. Nobody really knows until the votes are counted, and afterwards nobody really knows why.

I even think there is an even chance that the republicans hold on to the House but that opinion gets blasted by my co-workers constantly because they are blinded by two things: Their ideology and the overwhelming prevalence of polling data that show people prefer a democratic congress as a check on trump. Don't be surprised if that doesn't happen. Am I an idiot for thinking this? I will be right or wrong come November 7th, but that's all I'll be.
 
Re: The 2018 midterm elections!

ScoobyDoo said:
I'll list it again.

Hillary Clinton
John Kerry
Al Gore
Mike Dukakis
Walter Mondale

And the US has been pumping the hand cart to hell since 1980. And, being called Chicken Little after the sky (Trump) has already fallen is ****ing hilarious.
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WH by Party 1993-2021: Dems 16 years, GOP 12 years provided Chump is a one termer. What are you p issing yourself over again?

Regarding the mid-terms, lets look at the races from two months ago to now. What's changed? I'd say for the Senate GOP has put ND clearly within their grasp while Dems have done the same in WVA. Florida has definitely moved in Nelson's direction although that may be less to do with him and more to do with some carryover effect from the governor's race. Otherwise all of the other races, NV-AZ-MT-MO-ID-TN are tied and if you told me this summer than Donnelly and McCaskill would be in coin flip races two weeks before election day I wouldn't have believed you.
 
WeAreNDHockey said:
Well if he's an idiot plenty of others are similarly afflicted. There are other people and studies that share his opinion. Elections are hard to predict and hard to study in review. After all, most people here were 100% certain and convinced trump didn't have a chance. Scooby called that correctly and was mocked. I was mocked when I even raised the possibility here that Clinton was one misstep away from losing. Nobody really knows until the votes are counted, and afterwards nobody really knows why.

I even think there is an even chance that the republicans hold on to the House but that opinion gets blasted by my co-workers constantly because they are blinded by two things: Their ideology and the overwhelming prevalence of polling data that show people prefer a democratic congress as a check on trump. Don't be surprised if that doesn't happen. Am I an idiot for thinking this? I will be right or wrong come November 7th, but that's all I'll be.
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You get blasted for it because you're falling into the trap that all things are either 50/50 or 100 percent certain. Based on their moods, people will trick themselves into thinking 75% is either a near certainty ("Hillary is a lock" camp) or destined to be wrong ("GOP is likely to keep the house" camp). Neither is correct. It's a probability that is more likely to happen than not.

Math is hard, but not that hard. It's possible the GOP keeps the house, but it's not a 50/50 shot. GOP's chances of keeping the house is on par with either correctly calling two successive coin flips or rolling a 1 on a normal die, depending on what model you believe. If you really think it's a 50/50 shot, you should go into the betting markets and put money down, because you'll get favorable odds.
 
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Re: The 2018 midterm elections!

WeAreNDHockey said:
Well if he's an idiot plenty of others are similarly afflicted. There are other people and studies that share his opinion. Elections are hard to predict and hard to study in review. After all, most people here were 100% certain and convinced trump didn't have a chance. Scooby called that correctly and was mocked. I was mocked when I even raised the possibility here that Clinton was one misstep away from losing. Nobody really knows until the votes are counted, and afterwards nobody really knows why.

I even think there is an even chance that the republicans hold on to the House but that opinion gets blasted by my co-workers constantly because they are blinded by two things: Their ideology and the overwhelming prevalence of polling data that show people prefer a democratic congress as a check on trump. Don't be surprised if that doesn't happen. Am I an idiot for thinking this? I will be right or wrong come November 7th, but that's all I'll be.
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He's an idiot because he's a one trick pony. While opinions are in fact like a ssholes in that everybody's got one what I would say in terms of the House is its the flipside of the Senate. The battle to take the House (not to achieve a wave, but a majority) goes through Dem states - CA, IL, NY, NJ, MN, VA, PA, WA, CO. Basically to hold the House the GOP has to kick a ss in places where 1) neither they or Trump are popular, and 2) their candidates in top of ballot races for Gov and Sen are getting annihilated. Can they hold on downballot in California, Pennsylvania and New Jersey and save the approx. 15 swing districts in those 3 states alone? Sure. Will they? We'll know soon enough...
 
Re: The 2018 midterm elections!

Rover said:
He's an idiot because he's a one trick pony. While opinions are in fact like a ssholes in that everybody's got one what I would say in terms of the House is its the flipside of the Senate. The battle to take the House (not to achieve a wave, but a majority) goes through Dem states - CA, IL, NY, NJ, MN, VA, PA, WA, CO. Basically to hold the House the GOP has to kick a ss in places where 1) neither they or Trump are popular, and 2) their candidates in top of ballot races for Gov and Sen are getting annihilated. Can they hold on downballot in California, Pennsylvania and New Jersey and save the approx. 15 swing districts in those 3 states alone? Sure. Will they? We'll know soon enough...
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What one trick pony?

I predicted exactly what everyone else has. The Dems will win the House and the GOP will win the Senate. Everything else I have posted has been information I have found on the Internets. Often without any sort of prediction or comment from me.

I have argued that the Dems winning the House accomplishes nothing. And, it probably hurts them in 2020 more than it helps them. Those comments went unanswered.
 
Re: The 2018 midterm elections!

solovsfett said:
Only good news out of Wisconsin right now is Baldwin leads Vukmir. Not that Baldwin is great but this will help soothe the sting of Walker and Schimel getting re-elected.

We really need the fairness doctrine reinstated and the 1996 communications bill (I forget the name) overturned.

EDIT: telecommunications act of 96.
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Where are you seeing Walker will get re-elected. Most polling has Evers leading outside of the Marquette poll. (which has Walker with a slight lead) Nothing I have heard or read seems to support the idea of him being re-elected.
 
Re: The 2018 midterm elections!

Handyman said:
Where are you seeing Walker will get re-elected. Most polling has Evers leading outside of the Marquette poll. (which has Walker with a slight lead) Nothing I have heard or read seems to support the idea of him being re-elected.
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What I looked at this morning had it within the margin of error. Going to be interesting to see if that worm flips the other way this time.
 
Re: The 2018 midterm elections!

ScoobyDoo said:
Never said he was a lock.
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Who cares. You keep touting the Hillary is a lock thing like it proves you are right and yet you forget you fall for every one of the media's "GOP Darlings" which proves you are just as wrong as everyone else. The list of GOPers you guaranteed would be president is long and ridiculous. Hell at one point you said T-Paw would be...

For a guy who touts simple math you seem to like to ignore it when it suits your purpose. 538 has it broken down to the point that anyone can really understand it (I can and I suck at math) yet some news organization gives you some bad news and you ignore all the facts and just focus on the bad news. Then you rail the media for being wrong instead of just thinking for twelve seconds and realizing they dont know anything except they want your ratings.
 
Re: The 2018 midterm elections!

Handyman said:
Who cares. You keep touting the Hillary is a lock thing like it proves you are right and yet you forget you fall for every one of the media's "GOP Darlings" which proves you are just as wrong as everyone else. The list of GOPers you guaranteed would be president is long and ridiculous. Hell at one point you said T-Paw would be...

For a guy who touts simple math you seem to like to ignore it when it suits your purpose. 538 has it broken down to the point that anyone can really understand it (I can and I suck at math) yet some news organization gives you some bad news and you ignore all the facts and just focus on the bad news. Then you rail the media for being wrong instead of just thinking for twelve seconds and realizing they dont know anything except they want your ratings.
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Fine. I'm out of the political prediction business. Happy? You'll never see me post an opinion on an elections results again.
 
Re: The 2018 midterm elections!

ScoobyDoo said:
What I looked at this morning had it within the margin of error. Going to be interesting to see if that worm flips the other way this time.
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Last two polls are within the margin (according to RCP) so it could go either way but something about the Walker campaign this time makes it seem like they fear the numbers are worse than that. My guess is their internal polling has independents walking away from him. In a close race he is going to need them.

If Wisconsin re-elects him they might as well shut down their schools cause he has screwed their education up hardcore. His austerity has helped him frame the economic argument but sooner or later that will backfire too. Wisconsin has a chance to get out of the Dark Ages before it is too late.
 
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