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The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

  • Thread starter Thread starter Priceless
  • Start date Start date
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

There are basically 5 criteria that create the framework for the committee:
Hosts going to their regional, "flights", attendance, bracket integrity and avoiding intra-conference match-ups.

It seems to me that 2 of the 5 will have to give a bit, and if I were to make a guess it would be conference teams playing each other, and bracket integrity as you work your way down the rankings.

I think the committee will work very hard to keep the 1v4 band correct, and probably try to reward the top-2 overall seeds. Below that, I expect they will be content to just keep it close. Really, what has shown to be most important is the 1v4 band in the first round and to a slightly lesser extent the 1v2 band for the second round.
I also don't think they will be too concerned with two NCHC teams playing each other in the first round.

So, I wouldn't be surprised by something like this:

Midwest Region, South Bend, Ind.
4. Miami vs. 13. Yale
5. Denver vs. 12. St. Cloud State

West Region, Fargo, N.D.
2. North Dakota vs. 15. Providence
7. Michigan Tech vs. 10. Minnesota

Northeast Region, Manchester, N.H.
1. Minnesota State vs. 16. RIT
8. UNO vs. 11. Boston College

East Region, Providence, R.I.
3. Boston University vs. 14. Quinnipiac
6. Duluth vs. 9. Harvard
 
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Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Stauber1 said:
Midwest Region, South Bend, Ind.
4. Miami vs. 13. Yale
5. Denver vs. 12. St. Cloud State

West Region, Fargo, N.D.
2. North Dakota vs. 15. Providence
7. Michigan Tech vs. 10. Minnesota

Northeast Region, Manchester, N.H.
1. Minnesota State vs. 16. RIT
8. UNO vs. 11. Boston College

East Region, Providence, R.I.
3. Boston University vs. 14. Quinnipiac
6. Duluth vs. 9. Harvard
Click to expand...
I like that. Especially that Fargo becomes the bracket of death. :)
 
Numbers said:
Looking further, I actually see 3 good possibilitis. Well, more actually.

Like Priceless, I think that the committee's public statements in regard to possibly going back to some on-campus playoffs means that they are concerned with the atmosphere of the regionals. Therefore, I am going to work on the idea that Miami plays at South Bend, because there is no other local draw.

Also, being from Minnesota, I am not sure how choose between Manchester and Providence, so I am going to guess here.

Manchester: 1-MSUM v 16-RIT; 8-Omaha v 9-Harvard.
This piece stays the same in all brackets.

Then, A: Fargo: 2-NoDak v 15-PC; 7-MTU v 12-SCSU
South Bend: 4-Miami v 13-Yale; 5-Denver v 10-Minny
Providence: 3-BU v 14-Quinny; 6-UMD v 11-BC

or, B: Fargo: 2-NoDak v 15-PC; 7-MTU v 12-SCSU
South Bend: 4-Miami v 13-Yale; 6-UMD v 10-Minny
Providence: 3-BU v 14-Quinny; 5-Denver v 11-BC

or, C: Fargo: 2-NoDak v 15-PC; 6-UMD v 10-Minny
South Bend: 4-Miami v 13-Yale; 7-MTU v 12-SCSU
Providence: 3-BU v 14-Quinny; 5-Denver v 11-BC

Choice C has the fewest flights, but also the least bracket integrity because 4 and 7 are in the same bracket. A and B have the same number of flights. I think it's possible a few UMD fans might make it to South Bend rather than Denver fans. So, in some ways, I see advantage to B. But, A has the 1/8, 2/7, 3/6, 4/5 thing going for it.

Ultimately, I am less sure what the committee might do this year than ever.
Click to expand...

MTU fans will travel to South Bend, large alumni base in Detroit and there were at least 4,000-5,000 Tech fans at the GLI. If they are so worried about attendance to pull Miami there instead of Mankato, they should move Tech there too, the building will fill with those two there.
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Stauber1 said:
There are basically 5 criteria that create the framework for the committee:
Hosts going to their regional, "flights", attendance, bracket integrity and avoiding intra-conference match-ups.

It seems to me that 2 of the 5 will have to give a bit, and if I were to make a guess it would be conference teams playing each other, and bracket integrity as you work your way down the rankings.

I think the committee will work very hard to keep the 1v4 band correct, and probably try to reward the top-2 overall seeds. Below that, I expect they will be content to just keep it close. Really, what has shown to be most important is the 1v4 band in the first round and to a slightly lesser extent the 1v2 band for the second round.
I also don't think they will be too concerned with two NCHC teams playing each other in the first round.

So, I wouldn't be surprised by something like this:

Midwest Region, South Bend, Ind.
4. Miami vs. 13. Yale
5. Denver vs. 12. St. Cloud State

West Region, Fargo, N.D.
2. North Dakota vs. 15. Providence
7. Michigan Tech vs. 10. Minnesota

Northeast Region, Manchester, N.H.
1. Minnesota State vs. 16. RIT
8. UNO vs. 11. Boston College

East Region, Providence, R.I.
3. Boston University vs. 14. Quinnipiac
6. Duluth vs. 9. Harvard
Click to expand...

I like what Stauber wrote here. And, thanks to BrassBonanza for helping me understand about Harvard's fan base.

With all that in mind, I still think the committee will do this first:
Protect the overall #1 seed so that Mankato plays RIT
Ensure that Miami plays in SouthBend
No all-NCHC games in round one.

So, a variant on Stauber's bracket:
Northeast (Manchester): 1-MSUM v 16-RIT, 8-Omaha v 11-BC {RIT drives. BC brings fans. The 2 vs 3 band games are going to be out of bracket integrity, but the #3 teams' respective RPIs are very close. So it seems better to move the 3s than the 2s.}

West (Fargo): 2-NoDak v 15-Providence; 7-MTU v 12-SCSU {Providence perhaps can swap with Yale or QU. MTU is only possible non-NCHC game for SCSU. SCSU will bring atmosphere to Fargo, and even if they don't, the NoDak faithful will be anti-SCSU to a great enough extent the place will still rock both games}

East (Providence): 3-BU v 14-QU; 5-DU v 9-Harvard {Only have DU and UMD left, and a UMD v MINN game is irresistible. Put Duluth here in place of Denver if you want.}

Midwest (South Bend); 4-Miami v 13-Yale; 6-UMD v 10-Minnesota {Miami has to end up here or the place is empty, even with tickets sold. UMD v Minnesota will bring some people, too} {Swap this game for the MTU/SCSU game if you want}
 
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Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Would St. Cloud be the National Champion with the most losses ever if it won it all?
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Interesting in reading all of the other brackets. Right now, it seems like right here is the only place anyone is actually seriously considering Miami in South Bend.
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

In the last years of the WCHA, the committee always made sure that one region did not have a WCHA team in it, and that one region was a region of death, and would knock 1 or 2 strong WCHA teams out at the region level.
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Happy said:
In the last years of the WCHA, the committee always made sure that one region did not have a WCHA team in it, and that one region was a region of death, and would knock 1 or 2 strong WCHA teams out at the region level.
Click to expand...

I see something like that (it's impossible to actually DO) for the NCHC. They'll load up one region with NCHC teams.
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Happy said:
In the last years of the WCHA, the committee always made sure that one region did not have a WCHA team in it, and that one region was a region of death, and would knock 1 or 2 strong WCHA teams out at the region level.
Click to expand...

Yes, and they did the same thing last year to both the ECAC and Hockey East. But it wasn't some grand anti-WCHA conspiracy. It was an attempt to boost attendance at these woeful regionals.
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Mankato to South Bend per Buccigross. Friends and family crowd assured.
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Priceless said:
Yes, and they did the same thing last year to both the ECAC and Hockey East. But it wasn't some grand anti-WCHA conspiracy. It was an attempt to boost attendance at these woeful regionals.
Click to expand...

No, they started to do it when the WCHA put 4 teams in the FF. since the east hockey conferences never had that kind of power, it was not done to them.
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

umhockey91 said:
Would St. Cloud be the National Champion with the most losses ever if it won it all?
Click to expand...

Yes. Minnesota in 1976 and Wisconsin in 1981 each had 14 losses...tied for the most losses ever for a National Champion.

That being said, numerous other similar teams have made the tournament over the years as an at-large with over 15 losses, and a few have had as many as 18 losses.
 
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Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Happy said:
No, they started to do it when the WCHA put 4 teams in the FF. since the east hockey conferences never had that kind of power, it was not done to them.
Click to expand...

Last year it happened.

Happy said:
We will know there is a real power change to the East when the committe does two things.

1) Put all the Hockey East teams in only 3 regions so they cannot have an all Hockey East FF.

2) make sure that the East's best teams end up in a "region of death" so they knock themselves out before the FF.
Click to expand...


Chief Wosinc said:
Remember this from January 8th? It looks like the committee did just that:

1a) No Hockey East teams in the Midwest Regional
1b) No ECAC teams in the West Regional

2a) UML and BC both in the Northeast Regional
2b) Union and Quinnipiac both in the East Regional.
Click to expand...
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Per Buccigross and ESPN on Twitter

#1 Minnesota State to South Bend
#2 UND to Fargo
#3 BU to Manchester
#4 Miami to Providence
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Happy said:
No, they started to do it when the WCHA put 4 teams in the FF. since the east hockey conferences never had that kind of power, it was not done to them.
Click to expand...
And over the same period, there have been bracketology columns that have predicted the brackets quite accurately using consistent criteria none of which was an anti-WCHA conspiracy.
 
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