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The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

  • Thread starter Thread starter Priceless
  • Start date Start date
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

There is so much parity from 1-8 this year. If the brackets keep their integrity, the second round games are going to be amazing! UMD a one seed traveled in the first round of the NCHC tourney!
 
The Exiled One said:
Win in three or win in two doesn't matter too much because they'll need to win at least one game at the Target Center just to meet the .500 record qualification. If they lose in the semis to UND, they still have to win the 3rd place game just to satisfy the .500 rule. Going 3-2 instead of 3-1 would put them a bit closer to the bubble, but they'd still probably get in. According to Jim Dahl, that should be enough.

Conceivably, they could go 2-2 and finish 14th or 15th in the PWR yet fall victim to the .500 rule. They'd be the first victim of "Wisconsin Rule" if this is how it plays out, which isn't very likely.
Click to expand...

I'm saying the existence of the third place game is huge, especially if we win in 3, because if we went 2-1 this weekend, and lost in the semis, we'd be under .500 and out of luck without the third place game.
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Priceless said:
Fargo
#1 North Dakota vs Robert Morris
Omaha vs Boston C

South Bend
#3 Miami vs Minnesota
Denver vs Bowling Green

Providence
#2 Mankato vs Harvard
Michigan Tech vs Providence

Manchester
#4 Duluth vs Lowell
Boston U vs Quinnipiac

(Minnesota gets the AQ from the B1G by winning percentage)
Click to expand...

Michigan is the conference leader because they have more conference wins than minnesota
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

MagnessMan said:
There is so much parity from 1-8 this year. If the brackets keep their integrity, the second round games are going to be amazing! UMD a one seed traveled in the first round of the NCHC tourney!
Click to expand...
There are some very good eastern teams sitting on the bubble... Lowell, Harvard, Yale, Colgate, and some that may wind up on the bubble... BC, Providence, QU. Some won't make it in, but trust me... any one of them could take it all, or at the very least, throw a major monkey wrench into the parity. Some very good hockey teams right there.
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Looking back on the January 1 pairwise, former #2 Harvard is at risk of joining some very select company that fell all the way from being a 1-seed to missing the tournament altogether. Only six teams have ever done that, most notably the 2012 Ohio State team that fell from #1 overall to missing the tournament entirely. Former #8 Vermont is also at risk. As of today, 11 of the top 12 teams (91.7%) in the January 1 pairwise are in the field.

Boston College was ranked 22 in the January 1 pairwise and have climbed into the tournament. It appears they will be the lowest ranked January 1 team to make the final selection as an at-large team.
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Priceless said:
Looking back on the January 1 pairwise, former #2 Harvard is at risk of joining some very select company that fell all the way from being a 1-seed to missing the tournament altogether. Only six teams have ever done that, most notably the 2012 Ohio State team that fell from #1 overall to missing the tournament entirely.
Click to expand...

A few days later, Harvard was actually #1 for the week of Jan. 5 before they began their decline.
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

JimDahl said:
A few days later, Harvard was actually #1 for the week of Jan. 5 before they began their decline.
Click to expand...

A remarkable fall from grace, but they can redeem themselves in the ECAC tournament.

Are you going to have an update today, or wait until tomorrow/Monday when things are more settled?
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

The one game still going has ramifications for 11, 12 and 13. It will either be SCSU, Bowling Green, Minnesota (if BSU wins) or Bowling Green, Minnesota, SCSU (if Ferris wins)

There are currently seven game threes scheduled for tomorrow. When the games are final, the Pairwise Predictor will go live. (The games listed there now are for last year)
Also, shortly after that goes live (or Monday morning, depending on when all the games finish) there will be another thread posted with a bracketology contest. Everything will be posted then, but it will be a two-step process of picking the conference tournaments, then designing a bracket based on your predicted results. Let's see how well everyone has been paying attention. There will be a prize for the winner (other than bragging rights).
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

I was wondering if anyone has done the legwork to see what the PWR would look like under the formula from a couple years ago, with the TUC component and RPI only adjusted for negative effects of beating a weak opponent?
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Stauber1 said:
I was wondering if anyone has done the legwork to see what the PWR would look like under the formula from a couple years ago, with the TUC component and RPI only adjusted for negative effects of beating a weak opponent?
Click to expand...

Chn's pwr page lets you modify criteria...
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

1 North Dakota
2 Minnesota State
3 Denver
4 Boston University
5 Michigan Tech
6 Minnesota-Duluth
7 Miami
8 Nebraska-Omaha
9 Boston College
10 Providence
11 Bowling Green
12 Minnesota
13 St. Cloud State
14 Yale
15 Quinnipiac
---
16 Colgate
17 Harvard
18 Mass.-Lowell
19 Vermont
20 St. Lawrence

Fargo
#1 North Dakota vs Robert Morris
Omaha vs Boston C

South Bend
#2 Mankato vs Quinnipiac
Miami vs Bowling Green

Providence
#3 Denver vs Minnesota
Duluth vs Providence

Manchester
#4 Boston U vs Yale
Michigan Tech vs SCSU
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Priceless said:
1 North Dakota
2 Minnesota State
3 Denver
4 Boston University
5 Michigan Tech
6 Minnesota-Duluth
7 Miami
8 Nebraska-Omaha
9 Boston College
10 Providence
11 Bowling Green
12 Minnesota
13 St. Cloud State
14 Yale
15 Quinnipiac
---
16 Colgate
17 Harvard
18 Mass.-Lowell
19 Vermont
20 St. Lawrence

Fargo
#1 North Dakota vs Robert Morris
Omaha vs Boston C

South Bend
#2 Mankato vs Quinnipiac
Miami vs Bowling Green

Providence
#3 Denver vs Minnesota
Duluth vs Providence

Manchester
#4 Boston U vs Yale
Michigan Tech vs SCSU
Click to expand...

No way to get the Eagles to Manchester? BU, Yale or Quinnipiac could all be put in Providence to help with attendance.
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Priceless said:
1 North Dakota
2 Minnesota State
3 Denver
4 Boston University
5 Michigan Tech
6 Minnesota-Duluth
7 Miami
8 Nebraska-Omaha
9 Boston College
10 Providence
11 Bowling Green
12 Minnesota
13 St. Cloud State
14 Yale
15 Quinnipiac
---
16 Colgate
17 Harvard
18 Mass.-Lowell
19 Vermont
20 St. Lawrence

Fargo
#1 North Dakota vs Robert Morris
Omaha vs Boston C

South Bend
#2 Mankato vs Quinnipiac
Miami vs Bowling Green

Providence
#3 Denver vs Minnesota
Duluth vs Providence

Manchester
#4 Boston U vs Yale
Michigan Tech vs SCSU
Click to expand...

No way to get the Eagles to Manchester? BU, Yale or Quinnipiac could all be put in Providence to help with attendance.
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Priceless said:
1 North Dakota
2 Minnesota State
3 Denver
4 Boston University
5 Michigan Tech
6 Minnesota-Duluth
7 Miami
8 Nebraska-Omaha
9 Boston College
10 Providence
11 Bowling Green
12 Minnesota
13 St. Cloud State
14 Yale
15 Quinnipiac
---
16 Colgate
17 Harvard
18 Mass.-Lowell
19 Vermont
20 St. Lawrence

Fargo
#1 North Dakota vs Robert Morris
Omaha vs Boston C

South Bend
#2 Mankato vs Quinnipiac
Miami vs Bowling Green

Providence
#3 Denver vs Minnesota
Duluth vs Providence

Manchester
#4 Boston U vs Yale
Michigan Tech vs SCSU
Click to expand...

Sorry, Priceless. With Bemidji losing, Minnesota becomes a 3, and SCSU a 4 by the barest of margins. This allows the committee to save flights with this ingenious bracket:

Fargo: 1-NoDak v 16-RoMorris, 6-UMD v 12-Minny
South Bend: 2-Mankato v 13 St Cloud, 7-Miami v 11-Bowling Green
Manchester: 3-Denver v 14-Yale, 8-Neb-Omaha v 9- Boston College
Providence: 4-Boston University v 15-Quinnipiac, 5-MichTech v 10-Providence

Obviously, here, Yale and Q east for flights, so St Cloud gets Mankato and South Bend. UMD and Minny can both drive to Fargo, so that saves big time to put both there. Miami and BGSU both in South Bend for Atmosphere.

It's a strange bracket in a way, but there is only one flight to Fargo, 2 flights to South Bend, and only 3 flights to the eastern regions.
 
Numbers said:
Sorry, Priceless. With Bemidji losing, Minnesota becomes a 3, and SCSU a 4 by the barest of margins. This allows the committee to save flights with this ingenious bracket:

Fargo: 1-NoDak v 16-RoMorris, 6-UMD v 12-Minny
South Bend: 2-Mankato v 13 St Cloud, 7-Miami v 11-Bowling Green
Manchester: 3-Denver v 14-Yale, 8-Neb-Omaha v 9- Boston College
Providence: 4-Boston University v 15-Quinnipiac, 5-MichTech v 10-Providence

Obviously, here, Yale and Q east for flights, so St Cloud gets Mankato and South Bend. UMD and Minny can both drive to Fargo, so that saves big time to put both there. Miami and BGSU both in South Bend for Atmosphere.

It's a strange bracket in a way, but there is only one flight to Fargo, 2 flights to South Bend, and only 3 flights to the eastern regions.
Click to expand...

I'm having a bad weekend...I had brackets set up depending on which team won that triple overtime game, then I went and copied the wrong one...Will post my bracket in the morning...but it wasn't nearly as adventurous as yours (and had a whopping 10 flights as I recall)
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

So does a WMU win over SCSU in the NCHC final potentially result in 7 NCHC teams in the field???
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

SJHovey said:
So does a WMU win over SCSU in the NCHC final potentially result in 7 NCHC teams in the field???
Click to expand...
i guess it is possible, shows the flaw that is QWB adjusted RPI being the tiebreaker, once the field is set I will redo my previous rankings and see how things shake out.

I personally think the QWB adjusted RPI show be a comparison similar to record vs common opponents but tiebreaker should fall back to RPI excluding negative impact games.
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

What surprised me in this is that Denver can move up so far with one win. I didn't think BU would move up that much either. I'd be interested to play with the predictor going forward.
 
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