Point taken. And, in all honesty, the discrepancy with these guys was worse before the PWR was redefined to eliminate the TUC.
I still want Jim Dahl or Reilly Hamilton
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Point taken. And, in all honesty, the discrepancy with these guys was worse before the PWR was redefined to eliminate the TUC.
I still want Jim Dahl or Reilly Hamilton
FlagDUDE08
Banned
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread
Given who has a shot, it's a fairly safe bet you're not going to be getting one of those.
Given who has a shot, it's a fairly safe bet you're not going to be getting one of those.
Shirtless Guy
Old Dirty Basterd
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread
cant argue there, the stuff Jim Dahl produces is great...I think playoffstatus would be fine with how they do things if they used their own ranking system to help determine future outcomes but then ranked teams on their probability page by the existing pairwise...
cant argue there, the stuff Jim Dahl produces is great...I think playoffstatus would be fine with how they do things if they used their own ranking system to help determine future outcomes but then ranked teams on their probability page by the existing pairwise...
Fighting Sioux 23
New member
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread
Pretty much what mcfarljd said. Each conference gets an autobid. In order to account for that with the current rankings, I just take the team with the top winning % in the conference and assign them the autobid. Obviously, that likely will not be the case when all is said and done. I think this year will be similar to last year in that you probably need to be in the top 11 to be "safe" going into the last day or two of conference championship weekend. There is a strong likelihood that 3-4 of the actual autobids will come from outside the top 16 of the Pairwise. I wouldn't be shocked if we had 5 teams from outside the top 16 capture autobids. Of course, I wouldn't be shocked either if we had only 1 or 2 autobids come from outside the top 16.
Pretty much what mcfarljd said. Each conference gets an autobid. In order to account for that with the current rankings, I just take the team with the top winning % in the conference and assign them the autobid. Obviously, that likely will not be the case when all is said and done. I think this year will be similar to last year in that you probably need to be in the top 11 to be "safe" going into the last day or two of conference championship weekend. There is a strong likelihood that 3-4 of the actual autobids will come from outside the top 16 of the Pairwise. I wouldn't be shocked if we had 5 teams from outside the top 16 capture autobids. Of course, I wouldn't be shocked either if we had only 1 or 2 autobids come from outside the top 16.
manurespreader
Still upright
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread
I don't think it will be 4 or 5 but I think the chances are really good that you get at least 2. I don't think St Cloud will be in the top 15 once all is said and done so I think they are a good candidate, along with St Lawrence, Bemidji, and maybe Canisius. I would also say it's been very interesting watching things unfold.
I don't think it will be 4 or 5 but I think the chances are really good that you get at least 2. I don't think St Cloud will be in the top 15 once all is said and done so I think they are a good candidate, along with St Lawrence, Bemidji, and maybe Canisius. I would also say it's been very interesting watching things unfold.
Shirtless Guy
Old Dirty Basterd
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread
There are possibilities in pretty much every league.
WCHA: BSU, NMU, maybe FSU getting hot at the right time
ECAC: Colgate, St. Lawrence, its doubtful that Harvard/Yale wouldn't be top 12 if they won the ECAC title...
Big 10: Penn State, Michigan State, its doubtful Michigan wouldn't be top 12 if they won the B1G
Hockey East: It would have to be a team like Northeastern or Merrimack on a roll to have it not be a top 12 team
NCHC: I think its doubtful that WMU could pull it off and beyond that everyone else is likely to be top 12 if they win the AQ
AHA: No matter who wins this, they're pretty much guaranteed to be outside of the top 12.
There are possibilities in pretty much every league.
WCHA: BSU, NMU, maybe FSU getting hot at the right time
ECAC: Colgate, St. Lawrence, its doubtful that Harvard/Yale wouldn't be top 12 if they won the ECAC title...
Big 10: Penn State, Michigan State, its doubtful Michigan wouldn't be top 12 if they won the B1G
Hockey East: It would have to be a team like Northeastern or Merrimack on a roll to have it not be a top 12 team
NCHC: I think its doubtful that WMU could pull it off and beyond that everyone else is likely to be top 12 if they win the AQ
AHA: No matter who wins this, they're pretty much guaranteed to be outside of the top 12.
Fighting Sioux 23
New member
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread
From most likely to least:
AHA: As you mentioned, whoever wins the conference tournament will almost assuredly be from outside the top 12. I suppose there is some miniscule probability that the right set of results allow Robert Morris to sneak in there, but I just don't see that happening. My guess on chance of AHA autobid stealing a spot from the top 16: 99.99%
Big Ten: The conference has been poor all year long, so it wouldn't surprise me much if whoever won the league tournament title would be sitting outside the top 12. I don't know if Michigan would be a top 12 team if they won the tournament...but it is possible. Minnesota is the only team inside the top 12 at the moment from the conference, and I just don't have a whole lot of faith that they can win 2 games in a row in Michigan...especially if they had to knock off both Michigan State and Michigan. My guess on chance of Big Ten autobid stealing a spot from the top 16: 75%
ECAC: Only Quinnipiac is in the top 12 at the moment, and just barely so. Yale would likely move up into the top 12 with winning the ECAC Tournament, but Harvard might not. It would be tight. As you mentioned, Colgate and St. Lawrence are both good possibilities of winning the tournament. However, they would also have an opportunity to jump up into the top 12 if they did so. My guess on chance of ECAC autobid stealing a spot from the top 16: 40%
WCHA: Minnesota State and Michigan Tech are obviously the top of the league, and if Bowling Green were to make that run (especially if they did so dispatching Mankato and Tech) they would finish in the top 12. As you discussed, that leaves Bemidji State and Northern Michigan. I think Bemidji State has a decent chance of pulling such a feat. I haven't seen much from Northern Michigan to truly know what their odds are, so my number here might be a bit off. My guess on chance of WCHA autobid stealing a spot from the top 16: 25%
Hockey East: I think Notre Dame has a shot of getting on a roll and winning the league title. I think Northeastern would probably vault themselves up into the top 12 if they won the Hockey East Tournament...although that likely depends on how they fare before the tournament. I just don't see Merrimack having much of a shot, along with anyone else from the bottom of the league. My guess on chance of Hockey East autobid stealing a spot from the top 16: 10%
NCHC: I think Western would probably be in the top 12 if they managed to run the table in the NCHC Tournament...same with St. Cloud. That leaves only Colorado College, and while they could cause whoever finishes first in the conference some fits, I don't see them winning 4 straight when they've only managed to win 1 conference game all season. My guess on chance NCHC autobid stealing a spot from top 16: 5%
Maybe I shouldn't have said "strong likelihood" that there would be 3-4 autobids coming from outside the top 16. The better language would be a "strong possibility."
Obviously, we'll know a whole lot more in about two weeks as to how those percentages hold up (or likely change).
From most likely to least:
AHA: As you mentioned, whoever wins the conference tournament will almost assuredly be from outside the top 12. I suppose there is some miniscule probability that the right set of results allow Robert Morris to sneak in there, but I just don't see that happening. My guess on chance of AHA autobid stealing a spot from the top 16: 99.99%
Big Ten: The conference has been poor all year long, so it wouldn't surprise me much if whoever won the league tournament title would be sitting outside the top 12. I don't know if Michigan would be a top 12 team if they won the tournament...but it is possible. Minnesota is the only team inside the top 12 at the moment from the conference, and I just don't have a whole lot of faith that they can win 2 games in a row in Michigan...especially if they had to knock off both Michigan State and Michigan. My guess on chance of Big Ten autobid stealing a spot from the top 16: 75%
ECAC: Only Quinnipiac is in the top 12 at the moment, and just barely so. Yale would likely move up into the top 12 with winning the ECAC Tournament, but Harvard might not. It would be tight. As you mentioned, Colgate and St. Lawrence are both good possibilities of winning the tournament. However, they would also have an opportunity to jump up into the top 12 if they did so. My guess on chance of ECAC autobid stealing a spot from the top 16: 40%
WCHA: Minnesota State and Michigan Tech are obviously the top of the league, and if Bowling Green were to make that run (especially if they did so dispatching Mankato and Tech) they would finish in the top 12. As you discussed, that leaves Bemidji State and Northern Michigan. I think Bemidji State has a decent chance of pulling such a feat. I haven't seen much from Northern Michigan to truly know what their odds are, so my number here might be a bit off. My guess on chance of WCHA autobid stealing a spot from the top 16: 25%
Hockey East: I think Notre Dame has a shot of getting on a roll and winning the league title. I think Northeastern would probably vault themselves up into the top 12 if they won the Hockey East Tournament...although that likely depends on how they fare before the tournament. I just don't see Merrimack having much of a shot, along with anyone else from the bottom of the league. My guess on chance of Hockey East autobid stealing a spot from the top 16: 10%
NCHC: I think Western would probably be in the top 12 if they managed to run the table in the NCHC Tournament...same with St. Cloud. That leaves only Colorado College, and while they could cause whoever finishes first in the conference some fits, I don't see them winning 4 straight when they've only managed to win 1 conference game all season. My guess on chance NCHC autobid stealing a spot from top 16: 5%
Maybe I shouldn't have said "strong likelihood" that there would be 3-4 autobids coming from outside the top 16. The better language would be a "strong possibility."
Obviously, we'll know a whole lot more in about two weeks as to how those percentages hold up (or likely change).
purpleinnebraska
Well-known member
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread
I'd have to lower the odds for a WCHA team stealing an autobid. As noted, BGSU probably gets in the top 12 anyway with a win, so if you're saying 25% odds of someone stealing a bid, you're saying you like a #4 seed's chances as much as you do the #1, #2, or #3 seed's chances.
I'd have to lower the odds for a WCHA team stealing an autobid. As noted, BGSU probably gets in the top 12 anyway with a win, so if you're saying 25% odds of someone stealing a bid, you're saying you like a #4 seed's chances as much as you do the #1, #2, or #3 seed's chances.
Fighting Sioux 23
New member
Well, the odds of #4-8 = 25%. Also, you have to factor in a scenario where Bowling Green falls flat on their face the next two weekends and wins the Final Five while still below the Top 16. I put that all together at 25%.
P
Priceless
Guest
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread
Fargo
#1 North Dakota vs Robert Morris
Denver vs Boston C
Providence
#3 Duluth vs Lowell
Omaha vs Providence
South Bend
#4 Miami vs Minnesota
Michigan Tech vs Bowling Green
Manchester
#2 Mankato vs St Cloud
Boston U vs Quinnipiac
Fargo
#1 North Dakota vs Robert Morris
Denver vs Boston C
Providence
#3 Duluth vs Lowell
Omaha vs Providence
South Bend
#4 Miami vs Minnesota
Michigan Tech vs Bowling Green
Manchester
#2 Mankato vs St Cloud
Boston U vs Quinnipiac
Patman
Rodent of Unusual Size
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread
in a heartbeat... I can take the train, get a hotel right there, keep everything cheap... not against driving per se. I think I'm out for most other options and I may even skip for Manchester... just don't feel so good about my resources.
in a heartbeat... I can take the train, get a hotel right there, keep everything cheap... not against driving per se. I think I'm out for most other options and I may even skip for Manchester... just don't feel so good about my resources.
Shirtless Guy
Old Dirty Basterd
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread
uhm no, MTU vs BGSU can't happen
P
Priceless
Guest
Last edited:
Spartanforlife4
Generic Catchy Message
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread
Also, Michigan is the B10 bid now due to tiebreaker/have a game in hand.
Also, Michigan is the B10 bid now due to tiebreaker/have a game in hand.
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread
Here's what Chris Dilks of SB Nation has come up with, that is quite different from your scenario:
http://www.sbncollegehockey.com/2015/3/1/8128563/ncaa-hockey-bracketology-march-1st
Here's what Chris Dilks of SB Nation has come up with, that is quite different from your scenario:
http://www.sbncollegehockey.com/2015/3/1/8128563/ncaa-hockey-bracketology-march-1st
P
Priceless
Guest
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread
The March 1 pairwise
1 North Dakota
2 Minnesota State
3 Minnesota-Duluth
4 Miami
5 Nebraska-Omaha
6 Boston University
7 Michigan Tech
8 Denver
9 Providence
10 Boston College
11 Minnesota
12t Quinnipiac
12t Yale
14 Bowling Green
15t Michigan
15t Massachusetts-Lowell
17 St. Cloud State
18 Colgate
19t Vermont
19t Northeastern
21 St. Lawrence
22 Harvard
23 Bemidji State
24 Dartmouth
25 Robert Morris
26 Alaska
27t Western Michigan
27t Penn State
29 Northern Michigan
30t New Hampshire
30t Notre Dame
32 Michigan State
33t Cornell
33t Merrimack
33t Union
36 Ferris State
37 Ohio State
38 Connecticut
39 Bentley
40t Canisius
40t Clarkson
42t Mercyhurst
42t Maine
44 RIT
45 Massachusetts
46 Brown
47 Holy Cross
48 Rensselaer
49 Colorado College
50t Air Force
50t Sacred Heart
50t Alaska-Anchorage
53 Alabama-Huntsville
54 Lake Superior
55 Wisconsin
56 Princeton
57 Army
58 American International
59 Niagara
There have now been 170 teams that have been ranked high enough to qualify for an NCAA invite without relying on an autobid to make the field. 155 (91.2%) have been in playoff position on March 1. No team in the top seven at this point in the season has ever fallen out of the field. Only Denver in 2007 and Mankato in 2008 have fallen out of the top 11. The state of Michigan continued a very bad trend as Michigan joined Western Michigan (2013), Northern Michigan (2012) and Michigan State (2010) - along with Duluth (2008) and Dartmouth (2005) - as 12-seeds who have missed the tournament. Overall, 41 of the 48 (85.4%) teams ranked 9-12 qualified.
The teams don't HAVE to be moved, but to help attendance and reduce flights they would be.
Fargo
#1 North Dakota vs Robert Morris
Denver vs Minnesota
South Bend
#4 Miami vs Michigan
Omaha vs Boston C
Manchester
#3 Duluth vs Bowling Green
Boston U vs Quinnipiac
Providence
#2 Mankato vs Yale
Michigan Tech vs Providence
The March 1 pairwise
1 North Dakota
2 Minnesota State
3 Minnesota-Duluth
4 Miami
5 Nebraska-Omaha
6 Boston University
7 Michigan Tech
8 Denver
9 Providence
10 Boston College
11 Minnesota
12t Quinnipiac
12t Yale
14 Bowling Green
15t Michigan
15t Massachusetts-Lowell
17 St. Cloud State
18 Colgate
19t Vermont
19t Northeastern
21 St. Lawrence
22 Harvard
23 Bemidji State
24 Dartmouth
25 Robert Morris
26 Alaska
27t Western Michigan
27t Penn State
29 Northern Michigan
30t New Hampshire
30t Notre Dame
32 Michigan State
33t Cornell
33t Merrimack
33t Union
36 Ferris State
37 Ohio State
38 Connecticut
39 Bentley
40t Canisius
40t Clarkson
42t Mercyhurst
42t Maine
44 RIT
45 Massachusetts
46 Brown
47 Holy Cross
48 Rensselaer
49 Colorado College
50t Air Force
50t Sacred Heart
50t Alaska-Anchorage
53 Alabama-Huntsville
54 Lake Superior
55 Wisconsin
56 Princeton
57 Army
58 American International
59 Niagara
There have now been 170 teams that have been ranked high enough to qualify for an NCAA invite without relying on an autobid to make the field. 155 (91.2%) have been in playoff position on March 1. No team in the top seven at this point in the season has ever fallen out of the field. Only Denver in 2007 and Mankato in 2008 have fallen out of the top 11. The state of Michigan continued a very bad trend as Michigan joined Western Michigan (2013), Northern Michigan (2012) and Michigan State (2010) - along with Duluth (2008) and Dartmouth (2005) - as 12-seeds who have missed the tournament. Overall, 41 of the 48 (85.4%) teams ranked 9-12 qualified.
The teams don't HAVE to be moved, but to help attendance and reduce flights they would be.
Fargo
#1 North Dakota vs Robert Morris
Denver vs Minnesota
South Bend
#4 Miami vs Michigan
Omaha vs Boston C
Manchester
#3 Duluth vs Bowling Green
Boston U vs Quinnipiac
Providence
#2 Mankato vs Yale
Michigan Tech vs Providence
Terrier520
Sungo
That differs from what the committee has done in the last. Bracket integrity has always been of utmost importance.
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread
This bracket makes sense in lots of ways.
1) Miami plays at South Bend because Mankato and Duluth have to fly anyway.
2) Michigan plays at South Bend because it's close to Ann Arbor, and will bring fans to the games.
3) Once Michigan goes to South Bend, all the 1 v 4 games fall where they 'have to' go.
4) Priceless put the #2 seeds in the normal serpentine arrangement. No way to to better, unless you assume that Michigan Tech would travel well, and should therefore go to Fargo or South Bend. Both of those are long drives. Denver in Fargo makes a certain amount of sense. So, the #2s seem easy enough.
5) The #3s. First, Minnesota at Fargo saves a flight. Plus, what a region!!!
6) Once that happens, BU has to play Quinnipiac, to avoid BC or Prov.
7) Omaha gets the lower seed of BC/Prov, and Prov plays close to home. This is perhaps the only nit to pick. BC would probably bring more fans to Providence than Providence (at least that's what one poster from the east said).
This bracket makes sense in lots of ways.
1) Miami plays at South Bend because Mankato and Duluth have to fly anyway.
2) Michigan plays at South Bend because it's close to Ann Arbor, and will bring fans to the games.
3) Once Michigan goes to South Bend, all the 1 v 4 games fall where they 'have to' go.
4) Priceless put the #2 seeds in the normal serpentine arrangement. No way to to better, unless you assume that Michigan Tech would travel well, and should therefore go to Fargo or South Bend. Both of those are long drives. Denver in Fargo makes a certain amount of sense. So, the #2s seem easy enough.
5) The #3s. First, Minnesota at Fargo saves a flight. Plus, what a region!!!
6) Once that happens, BU has to play Quinnipiac, to avoid BC or Prov.
7) Omaha gets the lower seed of BC/Prov, and Prov plays close to home. This is perhaps the only nit to pick. BC would probably bring more fans to Providence than Providence (at least that's what one poster from the east said).