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The 114th Congress: How Low Can They Go?

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Re: The 114th Congress: How Low Can They Go?

A 10k foot view of the Senate elections. For those who follow closely there's nothing new, but it's a good primer for those who check in only at election time.
 
Re: The 114th Congress: How Low Can They Go?

Senate article was kinda dumb. Its no more complicated than this: whoever wins the White House wins the Senate. To pick up on a featured race in the article, there's no way Kelly Ayotte survives in New Hampshire if the top of the ticket loses her state by high single digits. The electorate is too polarized to split their tickets that much unless you're a long term entrenched incumbent with a lot of goodwill, not a first termer (ex. Scott Brown).

The House article was better. There are about 28 seats maybe that Obama won but have GOP reps in them. I believe its more like 37 based on 2008 results. The point being that the Dems don't need a '64 or '84 type blowout. They need a result between 2012 and 2008 to put in play the 30 seat gain they're looking for. Not saying this will happen of course, but the days of Reagan kicking @ ss in a landslide election yet the opposition party holding big majorities in the House are over. People seem to vote straight line in national elections a lot more nowadays.
 
Re: The 114th Congress: How Low Can They Go?

Rover said:
the days of Reagan kicking @ ss in a landslide election yet the opposition party holding big majorities in the House are over. People seem to vote straight line in national elections a lot more nowadays.
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There's a simple reason for that: the Dixiecrats moved from D to R. For a long time Democratic numbers in Congress far outstripped liberal numbers. The Republican racial strategy peeled off the Dixiecrats and created the current Triple Alignment of party, ideology, and geography. Rove et al. thought this would give the Republicans the same "permanent majority" in the House that the Democrats enjoyed for 54 years. They didn't factor in that the rightward gallop of the GOP would alienate moderates and result in a almost perfect 50/50 split.
 
Re: The 114th Congress: How Low Can They Go?

Kepler said:
There's a simple reason for that: the Dixiecrats moved from D to R. For a long time Democratic numbers in Congress far outstripped liberal numbers. The Republican racial strategy peeled off the Dixiecrats and created the current Triple Alignment of party, ideology, and geography. Rove et al. thought this would give the Republicans the same "permanent majority" in the House that the Democrats enjoyed for 54 years. They didn't factor in that the rightward gallop of the GOP would alienate moderates and result in a almost perfect 50/50 split.
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To be fair, Dems are also less apt to ticket split as well (for federal races). That's why while I'm not predicting a Dem win the GOP's hold on the House isn't as iron clad as pundidiotry seems to think. They can't afford a 2008 type loss or they'll be fighting tooth and nail to hang on. I'm also curious how population changes affect some of these districts. The partisan makeup in 2016 might not be the same as the makeup in 2012. Mind you, any gains have the chance to be reversed in 2018 since Democrats seem to take the mid-terms off. :mad:
 
Re: The 114th Congress: How Low Can They Go?

Rover said:
Mind you, any gains have the chance to be reversed in 2018 since Democrats seem to take the mid-terms off. :mad:
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Older white poor people vote; non-white and younger white poor people don't. These differences are magnified at the policy level by the influence of corporate media and bribery, er, campaign contributions. The result is the GOP always has a shot, and even in bad years they are insulated from spectacular routs*. OTOH, the Democrats can't afford a really bad cycle because the bottom can fall out.

(* This is a mixed blessing, though, since it protects them from the "market forces" of the changing electorate.
 
Re: The 114th Congress: How Low Can They Go?

Congress?
What is this "Congress" of which people are speaking?
I haven't seen Congress act, or demand other branches live within Constitutional limits and checks and balances, for quite a while.

I thought Congress had gone out of business. They're still around?
 
Re: The 114th Congress: How Low Can They Go?

The Sicatoka said:
Mmmm ... I like https://www.pandaexpress.com/ ... oh, wait, you said pander ... nevermind. :D
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Is it my imagination or did Panda Express go in the sh-tter the last few years? I swear the first few times I ate there in the 00's it was great, and now it's awful. I suppose my taste buds might have gotten more discriminating, but I doubt it. I think this is Hershey Syndrome.
 
Re: The 114th Congress: How Low Can They Go?

Kepler said:
Is it my imagination or did Panda Express go in the sh-tter the last few years? I swear the first few times I ate there in the 00's it was great, and now it's awful. I suppose my taste buds might have gotten more discriminating, but I doubt it. I think this is Hershey Syndrome.
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It's good the first couple times you eat at one. After that, ... meh.
 
Re: The 114th Congress: How Low Can They Go?

Interesting article on the potential further erosion of filibustering in the Senate. The great thing about it is it's not at all obvious who would benefit from it long term, which squeezes out the usual partisan false arguments.

Senate Republicans will make one last effort to reform the Senate's arcane rulebook this month, in hopes of putting the chamber on course to pass all 12 appropriations bills this year.

On Wednesday, shortly before heading to Baltimore for a joint retreat with House Republicans, the Senate GOP will huddle over strategies to speed the passage of spending legislation, according to a notice given to chiefs of staff obtained by POLITICO.

The discussion, led by Sen. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, will focus on a proposal to potentially eliminate an individual senator's power to filibuster a spending bill before it's even debated on the Senate floor.
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The GOP wants to use it to empower leadership, screwing both the Democratic minority and the Freedom Caucus in their own party, but of course that blade cuts both ways when the majority flips, as may happen as early as next Congress, or if God forbid some as-hat like Cruz ever became SML.

Still no movement on blue slips, which would help in the nomination process -- that may have to wait until the next time the WH and Senate are on the same page. The interesting thing about that is if Hillary wins and the Dems take back the Senate there will be a huge backlog of judiciary noms that the GOP sat on, which will now be filled by Clinton rather than Obama. To the extent that they have different criteria for judgeships (Obama seems to favor experience and chops, while the Clintons favor patronage and back scratching), that may backfire badly on the GOP as they see positions filled with more politically activist jurists.
 
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Re: The 114th Congress: How Low Can They Go?

Every time I see the name Lamar, I flash back to The Revenge of the Nerds, and it's hard for me to take anything that person says seriously.
 
Re: The 114th Congress: How Low Can They Go?

Lamar was my governor from 1st-9th grade, so in my mind he has that god-like quality we tend to assign to our first heroes. Plus he got a ton of favorable press for his famous "walk across Tennessee" governor's campaign, and he played solo piano with my city symphony on several occasions - nothing but positive associations for me.

Of course, deep down he's probably a scheming, pandering scumbag like the rest of 'em.... ;)
 
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