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Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

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I'd flock to treasuries, too, but I'd travel three hours north to do it. Canada's still AAA. ;) You would think, with a credit rating downgrade, the rates would go up because people are less likely to purchase something where they don't trust they'll get something in return...

Honestly, if the government defaults on the debt, any money you have in treasuries will be the least of your worries.
 
Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

Honestly, if the government defaults on the debt, any money you have in treasuries will be the least of your worries.

I'm well aware of the Constitutionally-mandated lien structure. I believe that's why fiscal conservatives are not budging on the credit limit. Not to mention, the credit limit is protected under the necessary and proper clause. It'd be nice to see most of these pet projects go bye-bye for a while. Not to mention, didn't the government shut down for a little while in the Clinton era?
 
Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

I'm well aware of the Constitutionally-mandated lien structure. I believe that's why fiscal conservatives are not budging on the credit limit. Not to mention, the credit limit is protected under the necessary and proper clause. It'd be nice to see most of these pet projects go bye-bye for a while. Not to mention, didn't the government shut down for a little while in the Clinton era?
Yup, many think it was the undoing of Gingrich as Speaker. Clinton came out of the shutdown smelling like a rose, Gingrich not so much.
 
Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

Yup, many think it was the undoing of Gingrich as Speaker. Clinton came out of the shutdown smelling like a rose, Gingrich not so much.

And yet, the purse strings tightened, and there were a few tax cuts (mostly corporate), and for the rest, just listen to any libstain attempt fiscal gloating.
 
Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

These results are something I would have expected, and I'm pleasantly surprised to see that someone actually has undertaken a serious academic study of the subject.

One of the biggest factors depressing government revenue is slow economic growth. If we had a higher annual rate of economic growth, many of the "revenue" problems would be less severe, and on top of that, many of the outsize expenditures also would be reduced as well.

The study referenced above indicates that there is a strong correlation between the expanded "safety net" and reduced workforce participation rate. A lower workforce participation rate means lower economic growth (both fewer productive workers and also more constrained consumption as well).

The implications are pretty clear cut: we've gone "too far" and need to re-balance. It's not to say we do away with it at all. The problem is that the "safety" net is no longer limited only to safety! It has become a "comfort and convenience" net too. and that is the problem. Imagine if you could wake up in the morning, mutter "i don't feel like going to work today" and then just roll over and go back to sleep again, and you suffered no adverse consequences. In the short run that might sound luxurious; but in the long run it is unhealthy for you, you have less self-esteem because you haven't really accomplished anything of meaning with your life. Meanwhile all the other people who do have the self-discipline to get up are now resenting you for freeloading on them.

it's not an "either / or" problem it's a "matter of degree" problem. and with the Panderer-in-Chief that we have now, coupled with Dumb and Dumber in the House, it's very likely neither party will address this civic cancer in any meaningful way. :(
 
Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

These results are something I would have expected, and I'm pleasantly surprised to see that someone actually has undertaken a serious academic study of the subject.

One of the biggest factors depressing government revenue is slow economic growth. If we had a higher annual rate of economic growth, many of the "revenue" problems would be less severe, and on top of that, many of the outsize expenditures also would be reduced as well.

The study referenced above indicates that there is a strong correlation between the expanded "safety net" and reduced workforce participation rate. A lower workforce participation rate means lower economic growth (both fewer productive workers and also more constrained consumption as well).

The implications are pretty clear cut: we've gone "too far" and need to re-balance. It's not to say we do away with it at all. The problem is that the "safety" net is no longer limited only to safety! It has become a "comfort and convenience" net too. and that is the problem. Imagine if you could wake up in the morning, mutter "i don't feel like going to work today" and then just roll over and go back to sleep again, and you suffered no adverse consequences. In the short run that might sound luxurious; but in the long run it is unhealthy for you, you have less self-esteem because you haven't really accomplished anything of meaning with your life. Meanwhile all the other people who do have the self-discipline to get up are now resenting you for freeloading on them.

it's not an "either / or" problem it's a "matter of degree" problem. and with the Panderer-in-Chief that we have now, coupled with Dumb and Dumber in the House, it's very likely neither party will address this civic cancer in any meaningful way. :(

Quite interesting. Obviously any private job is a net gain for the government because of tax revenue. From a fiscal standpoint and looking at the employment alone, any public job is an expenditure for the government since you must pay the salary (of course, you only really need to count about 75% of it because of tax revenue, just be sure not to double count the tax). I'm also not surprised that government welfare becomes the norm'; people aren't entirely stupid, they'll take scraps if you give it to them and figure out a way to live off it. Not to mention, Dumb and Dumber are worried that taking away the scraps will result in a loss of trust. The people of this country aren't dogs, as much they like to treat us as such.

The federal government has always looked for an excuse to spend. If the country's doing well, we'll spend because we have the money. If the country's in the tank, we'll spend and pass it off as "stimulus". When we have a pay cut, or perhaps one source of income is lost, does that mean we go splurge and buy a whole bunch of stuff? No! Why should it be any different for the government?
 
Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

Get this as to why governments need to raise gas taxes, at least according to Virginia: http://business.time.com/2013/01/16/virginia-is-worried-cars-are-becoming-too-fuel-efficient/

Cars are getting too good gas mileage that they aren't purchasing enough gas to make the tax effective as it is.

Gee, where have we seen this before? I can think of a few countries at or east of 0-degrees longitude...
 
Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

These results are something I would have expected, and I'm pleasantly surprised to see that someone actually has undertaken a serious academic study of the subject.

One of the biggest factors depressing government revenue is slow economic growth. If we had a higher annual rate of economic growth, many of the "revenue" problems would be less severe, and on top of that, many of the outsize expenditures also would be reduced as well.

The study referenced above indicates that there is a strong correlation between the expanded "safety net" and reduced workforce participation rate. A lower workforce participation rate means lower economic growth (both fewer productive workers and also more constrained consumption as well).

The implications are pretty clear cut: we've gone "too far" and need to re-balance. It's not to say we do away with it at all. The problem is that the "safety" net is no longer limited only to safety! It has become a "comfort and convenience" net too. and that is the problem. Imagine if you could wake up in the morning, mutter "i don't feel like going to work today" and then just roll over and go back to sleep again, and you suffered no adverse consequences. In the short run that might sound luxurious; but in the long run it is unhealthy for you, you have less self-esteem because you haven't really accomplished anything of meaning with your life. Meanwhile all the other people who do have the self-discipline to get up are now resenting you for freeloading on them.

it's not an "either / or" problem it's a "matter of degree" problem. and with the Panderer-in-Chief that we have now, coupled with Dumb and Dumber in the House, it's very likely neither party will address this civic cancer in any meaningful way. :(

Correlation does NOT prove causation.
 
Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

Nice to see the American people speaking decisively in their support of the President over the Knuckledraggers...

http://www.nationalmemo.com/poll-obamas-approval-surges-voters-back-white-house-on-debt-ceiling/

We're still waiting for Republicans to detail those entitlement cuts they're looking for. Since they're so hot to trot to do so, they must have their own plan, right? Right?
Entitlements are becoming the new 3rd rail of American Politics. After Mitt's thumping last November, partially due to the 47% remark, nobody in a close seat is going to cost themselves votes by going after government handouts. Sad, but a fact of political life these days.

In fact, look for more goodies from the Congre$$ to make sure of their lifetime appointment.
 
Entitlements are becoming the new 3rd rail of American Politics. After Mitt's thumping last November, partially due to the 47% remark, nobody in a close seat is going to cost themselves votes by going after government handouts. Sad, but a fact of political life these days.

In fact, look for more goodies from the Congre$$ to make sure of their lifetime appointment.

Problem is the wimpiness out of the GOP. When Obama wanted tax hikes he spelled out who was going to get whacked by them (as in what income level he was looking to raise taxes on). Pretty clear as he based his re-election on it. Lets give the man credit for being upfront about that. What exactly aside from a vague "cut" does the GOP want? If they'd like to raise the retirement age, propose that and say how much and when it takes effect. If they want to get rid of Medicaid, say that. The Republicans are trying to force entitlement cuts but have the Prez propose the specifics for them. It doesn't work that way.

Frankly this amazes me. If ever there was a time to slip in tort reform as well as other measures like allowing Medicare to bargain on prescriptions etc now would be the time.
 
Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

it will be interesting to see what happens to our political parties in the years ahead. it seems to me like we have three parties right now, not two.

it appears that the most brittle of the three is the <strike>Demagog</strike> Democrat party. It operates more like a cult these days than anything else, enforcing a rigid orthodoxy that allows for no deviation among the members. It is no longer so much a traditional political party as it is a coalition of single-issue constituencies. Each constituency has to be continually reassured that its one issue is always at the forefront, hence the pressure to conform. if anyone strays beyond their one issue, it threatens the monolithic consistency for all. in the short run it is a great way to deliver cobbled-together Presidential majorities every four years, but as Harry Reid's continued reluctance ever to hold a vote on anything substantive indicates, it is no way to govern once in office. It seems clear that the Democrats don't even want to govern; they prefer to rule. That's a problem for them in a democratic republic, and why there is such an important struggle over constitutional rights and individual liberties underway.

The Republican party actually seems to be two parties under one banner. You have the old-school Republicans, and frankly I am not really sure what they stand for or who they represent. Large corporations these days are more Democrat because of all the subsidies for green energy and related pork; financial companies have been more Democrat because its easier for them to coopt the regulators when they also are the source of so many donations. I guess small business and suburban voters have been the traditional Republican party base, though I don't really know that much about it.

The other party, one that is a true populist grass-roots movement, is the TEA Party (though probably not the one demonized by such propagandists as the NY Times). They have a nice ideological consistency in supporting limited government and states' rights, but they are too new and too inexperienced to have learned much about how to govern. One can be an effective opposition by insisting on ideological purity, but ideological purity also makes governing difficult if not impossible.

Can the uneasy coalition between traditional Republicans and TEA Party populists continue longer than the polygamous collection of single-issue devotees nominally known as Democrats? The harem members were all happy as long as the Sultan had enough to go around to keep everyone happy, but what happens when scarcity arrives and choices have to be made? History indicates that catfights are more likely to result when that happens.

The nice thing about these speculations is that we'll be able to see how events actually do unfold. Who's "right"? no need to argue, we'll know soon enough.
 
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it will be interesting to see what happens to our political parties in the years ahead. it seems to me like we have three parties right now, not two.

it appears that the most brittle of the three is the <strike>Demagog</strike> Democrat party. It operates more like a cult these days than anything else, enforcing a rigid orthodoxy that allows for no deviation among the members. It is no longer so much a traditional political party as it is a coalition of single-issue constituencies. Each constituency has to be continually reassured that its one issue is always at the forefront, hence the pressure to conform. if anyone strays beyond their one issue, it threatens the monolithic consistency for all. in the short run it is a great way to deliver cobbled-together Presidential majorities every four years, but as Harry Reid's continued reluctance ever to hold a vote on anything substantive indicates, it is no way to govern once in office. It seems clear that the Democrats don't even want to govern; they prefer to rule. That's a problem for them in a democratic republic, and why there is such an important struggle over constitutional rights and individual liberties underway.

The Republican party actually seems to be two parties under one banner. You have the old-school Republicans, and frankly I am not really sure what they stand for or who they represent. Large corporations these days are more Democrat because of all the subsidies for green energy and related pork; financial companies have been more Democrat because its easier for them to coopt the regulators when they also are the source of so many donations. I guess small business and suburban voters have been the traditional Republican party base, though I don't really know that much about it.

The other party, one that is a true populist grass-roots movement, is the TEA Party (though probably not the one demonized by such propagandists as the NY Times). They have a nice ideological consistency in supporting limited government and states' rights, but they are too new and too inexperienced to have learned much about how to govern. One can be an effective opposition by insisting on ideological purity, but ideological purity also makes governing difficult if not impossible.

Can the uneasy coalition between traditional Republicans and TEA Party populists continue longer than the polygamous collection of single-issue devotees nominally known as Democrats? The harem members were all happy as long as the Sultan had enough to go around to keep everyone happy, but what happens when scarcity arrives and choices have to be made? History indicates that catfights are more likely to result when that happens.

The nice thing about these speculations is that we'll be able to see how events actually do unfold. Who's "right"? no need to argue, we'll know soon enough.

For whatever reason this makes me think of the party heads getting together and saying..."remember, we divided these issues up so nobody would get more than 52% of the vote...one of us changes 5 things and they get 70% of the vote and we're both outta business".

The two parties need each other, they give reason for people to donate billions, they give opportunity to excuse their own feeble leadership with the "we're better than those guys!" claim and they give reason to perpetuate the longest string of do nothingness on record.

A real third party would be the last thing these guys ever want to see.

So, quit your part and vote the same way if you want...just don't donate money that should be spent on your kid's education and your retirement, since they cannot provide those things for you adequately.
 
Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

A real third party would be the last thing these guys ever want to see.

Which has made the TEA Party's attempt to co-opt the Republicans rather than compete with them so interesting. Much easier to try to take over an existing organization than to build one.
 
Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

Which has made the TEA Party's attempt to co-opt the Republicans rather than compete with them so interesting. Much easier to try to take over an existing organization than to build one.

Once the GOP understands that they cannot kidnap a movement for their own gain but rather must shape themselves around the movement, they might actually get somewhere. Reagan is no different from Obama. Each came in with their own ideas, the respective parties chose to embrace it, and they've not only assumed power, but are seen by their respective sheeple as heroes. I will make a prediction that, in about 10-20 years, the right will have control while the left cries about how they must return to Obama-esque policies.
 
Once the GOP understands that they cannot kidnap a movement for their own gain but rather must shape themselves around the movement, they might actually get somewhere. Reagan is no different from Obama. Each came in with their own ideas, the respective parties chose to embrace it, and they've not only assumed power, but are seen by their respective sheeple as heroes. I will make a prediction that, in about 10-20 years, the right will have control while the left cries about how they must return to Obama-esque policies.

Ill make the prediction that the right 20 years from now will look remarkably like today's left. Amazing how demographics change over time.
 
Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

Which has made the TEA Party's attempt to co-opt the Republicans rather than compete with them so interesting. Much easier to try to take over an existing organization than to build one.

That goes both ways. I think it's obvious that a segment of the Republican Party immediately set out to co-opt the TEA Party, and largely succeeded in that goal.
 
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