Snapshot of the remaining WCHA race -- getting down to the nitty gritty

[Red Cows]

Re: Snapshot of the remaining WCHA race -- getting down to the nitty gritty

Red Cow is really excited about his team you guys

Uh, no I'm not.

Our ability to make the NCAA tournament is seriously in question, even if we do go 7-3-0 the rest of the way, and even though we have the the easiest path to the MacNaughton Cup in the WCHA, by far, and I don't think we're gonna get that done, either.

I think we fall just short on both accounts.

You listen to Coach Blais in pregame shows and in his press conferences and you get the same vibe I am feeling. He knows what he does or does not have and he is very guarded in everything he says about this particular team's future. I trust the guy implicitly, so, so am I in being very guarded. The loss of Brock Montpetit, the only true center on the entire team, until at least the Wisconsin series, as well as the loss of forward Zahn Raubenheimer, has him as well as me very concerned.

 

[MrCollegeHockey]

Re: Snapshot of the remaining WCHA race -- getting down to the nitty gritty

Im going to go with St. Cloud.

 

[Red Cows]

Re: Snapshot of the remaining WCHA race -- getting down to the nitty gritty

Update:

8 conference games left for all the contenders except the Gophers, who have 10 left.

SCSU, UNO, & Mankato all have 4 home and 4 away left. Minnesota has 5 home, 1 neutral, and 4 home. DU has 5 home and 3 away. North Dakota has 2 home and 6 away. Wisconsin has 5 home, 1 neutral, 2 away.

SCSU has 4 games left with contenders (2 at home)
UNO has 4 games left with contenders (all at home)
Mankato has 2 games left with contenders (both at home)
Minnesota has 6 games left with contenders (2 at home)
Denver has 4 games left with contenders (2 at home)
North Dakota has 4 games left with contenders (none at home)
Wisconsin has 6 games left with contenders (3 at home)

The Purple Cows, with only 21 points and only 2 games left against contenders (North Dakota-at home), I think, has to win out and even they do, it's dicey for them as I don't think 37 points would be enough, since I think somebody is going to end up with 39 or 40 and win it unless somebody gets real hot and does a little better than that. The best anybody can finish with is SCSU at 45 points, which they'd obviously have to win out to accomplish.

Even though UNO is currently in 2nd place at 26 points, I personally only see them finishing 5-3 (with 36 points) or so since I don't have a lot of faith in Faulkner coming up big when needed (read: see Michigan Tech game this past Saturday night) and UNO has the worst defense corps of any of these teams in contention and has given up 5 more goals than any of them. Their schedule is favorable, though, and all 4 of their games with the contenders are at home and they are one of the 2 teams here that has a series remaining with AA (DU is the other). Additionally, they also have a road series with UMD, a team they have already swept once at home.

Minnesota has a tough road to hoe since they have to play 4 of their 6 toughest games on the road plus one at a neutral site. Even if they won the 2 games in hand they have on everybody else they'd still be one point behind SCSU. If they want to establish any comfort level for themselves in the race I really think they need to sweep them this weekend, but I don't think they will. I see a split of some kind in points, 3-1 or 2-2. I see the Gophers losing games to SCSU, Wisconsin, and Denver before it's all said and done. That said, they are in the the best position to overtake SCSU but I think they'll have to sweep them to get it done in the long run. That is one mighty important series this weekend. Easily the biggest of the year so far in the conference.

Wisconsin is an interesting case, not only because of who they play but also because they play the largest number of teams (3) ahead of them. Plus, those 6 games are with the teams that are currently the 1st, 2nd, & 3rd place teams in the league. However, I think they go 5-3 the rest of the way and finish with 32 points. But, if they got hot and somehow managed to run the table or even go 6-2 or 7-1, it would dramatically impact the situation for everybody else because they'd be sticking extra losses on the top 3 teams I don't envision now and they could actually theoretically open the door for just about anybody to win the thing, all by themselves. They are really the team to watch in the race because they could really upset the apple cart here more so than just about any other team. Winning out, in their case, might very well win them the cup because of who they play.

Denver, I see going 5-3 or maybe 6-2. They are pretty much going to have to sweep North Dakota at home and the Gophers in Mariucci to win the MacNaughton, unless they get some help along the way from another quarter.

North Dakota's situation is similar to DU's, I think, except they have a tougher schedule than DU does. They have 6 games against contenders remaining and they are all on the road. I think they go 5-3 and finish with 34 points. They have the added intangible of one of the games being an outdoor road game against a team ahead of them in the standings, a situation that they have never had to deal with before (of course, neither has UNO--that cuts both ways). I think that's a game where almost anything could happen either way. Another intangible for them is they will have an extraordinary number of their fans on hand for both their road games this weekend, perhaps as many as 2,000 - 3,000 or so.

All that said, I think it's SCSU's title to lose at this point. I think they go 5-2-1 the rest of the way and take the cup with 39 points.

My best guess at final conference standings:

St. Cloud State - 5-2-1 the rest of the way, 39 points
Minnesota - 7-3-0 the rest of the way, 38 points
UNO - 5-3-0 the rest of the way, 36 points
Denver - 5-3-0 the rest of the way, 34 points
North Dakota - 5-3-0 the rest of the way, 34 points
Wisconsin - 5-3-0 the rest of the way, 32 points
Mankato - 5-3-0 the rest of the way, 31 points

In a nutshell, essentially the same thing we have right now with the exception of UNO and Minnesota flip-flopping their current spots in the standings.

Hope I got all my facts straight. Flame away on my guesstimate here. Dissenting opinions encouraged. Which Gopher fan wants to be first?

 

[SCSU Euro]

Re: Snapshot of the remaining WCHA race -- getting down to the nitty gritty

First off, UND will have thousands of UND fans and at least 3 SCSU fans this Saturday.

Second, I'll take the over on # of ties SCSU, MN, UNO, DU, UND, UW and MSUM pick up the rest of the season if you are listing it at 1.

 

[Gurtholfin]

Re: Snapshot of the remaining WCHA race -- getting down to the nitty gritty

I assume the gophers and/or SCSU has their destiny in their own hands.

Among other things!

Comedy gold right there for ya!

 

[Gurtholfin]

Re: Snapshot of the remaining WCHA race -- getting down to the nitty gritty

I am very confident the Gophers have the drive to end the WCHA in style.

So... Gophers versus the field. Who ya got!?!


Much as i hate to say it, I pick the Gophers. Too deep at forward with skilled character guys and Wilcox in net. I think they're about to go on a run where difficulty of schedule won't really matter as they are simply better than most everyone else.

Hope, hope, HOPE that I'm wrong.

But I'm not.

 

[Red Cows]

Re: Snapshot of the remaining WCHA race -- getting down to the nitty gritty

Second, I'll take the over on # of ties SCSU, MN, UNO, DU, UND, UW and MSUM pick up the rest of the season if you are listing it at 1.

I totally agree with you about the ties but, jeez, that is so hard to predict. It's the biggest flaw in my guesswork.

 

[Red Cows]

Re: Snapshot of the remaining WCHA race -- getting down to the nitty gritty

So... Gophers versus the field. Who ya got!?!


Much as i hate to say it, I pick the Gophers. Too deep at forward with skilled character guys and Wilcox in net. I think they're about to go on a run where difficulty of schedule won't really matter as they are simply better than most everyone else.

Hope, hope, HOPE that I'm wrong.

But I'm not.

I think they are ONLY team that might really run the table. But, I don't think they will. I'll be pretty shocked if anybody does. They have looked decidedly mortal here and there and if I am Bob Motzko I am looking real carefully at film of UNO's win against Minnesota as well as Mankato's. Two eerily similar games and both authored up by coaches that, before this season, had spent the last three years on the same bench, and I don't think that was a coincidence, since they are great friends and probably "talked".

The Gophers run the table here then they are gonna be my pick to with the whole enchilada. Wilcox is a good goalie, but he IS a freshman. That said, I'd like our chances a lot better if he was our goalie.