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Season 95, Vol 2: Michigan Tech '15-'16

Re: Season 95, Vol 2: Michigan Tech '15-'16

Based on your explanation given, it looks right. Just for poops & giggles, does the 0.8 or 1.2 replace the 1 inside the denominator function, when calculating for home or away?
I have no idea...I just fiddled with the numbers until I got one that seemed reasonable...analyzing KRACH is very new to me.
 
Re: Season 95, Vol 2: Michigan Tech '15-'16

This.

GFM <— should just give Shirtless permission to call him whenever at this point.

I was just trying to figure out roughly what CHN had for probabilities in their table vs the ones you provided. It's easy to see their 2 digit probability of MTU winning both games, its figuring out how often KRACH said MTU would lose to FSU.
 
Re: Season 95, Vol 2: Michigan Tech '15-'16

I was just trying to figure out roughly what CHN had for probabilities in their table vs the ones you provided. It's easy to see their 2 digit probability of MTU winning both games, its figuring out how often KRACH said MTU would lose to FSU.

KRACH looks reflexively at everyone playing everyone; my BELOW numbers are conference play only. That's the biggest difference.

GFM
 
KRACH looks reflexively at everyone playing everyone; my BELOW numbers are conference play only. That's the biggest difference.

GFM

Have no idea how you'd do it (or if it's worth the time), but do you or does KRACH take into account momentum? Take a Northeastern this year... My guess is their probability of winning this weekend is much higher than KRACH or their PWR suggests. Terrible start, but maybe one of the best teams out there in the second half.

Maybe some kind of rolling average on win % and SOS? Again, not sure it's worth the headache.
 
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Re: Season 95, Vol 2: Michigan Tech '15-'16

Have no idea how you'd do it (or if it's worth the time), but do you or does KRACH take into account momentum? Take a Northeastern this year... My guess is their probability of winning this weekend is much higher than KRACH or their PWR suggests. Terrible start, but maybe one of the best teams out there in the second half.

Maybe some kind of rolling average on win % and SOS? Again, not sure it's worth the headache.

None of them currently take into account momentum. At one point the PWR included a criteria based on record over last 10 games I think? Now that would be pretty unfair, slanted towards a team ranked 5-8 in ECAC/HEA that got on a hot streak in the playoffs.
 
Re: Season 95, Vol 2: Michigan Tech '15-'16

Planes do fly into CMX... Can't a connecting flight be made from Chicago to Houghton?
To the best of my knowledge, visiting teams don't fly into CMX due to the small size of the planes that are used (50 seat regional jets) and the high cost. Right now United (O'Hare to CMX) is the only airline that flies to CMX. They run two flights daily, both with 50 seat regional jets.

Assuming you booked the flight far enough in advance to get the whole team/staff seated on a single flight, there is no way you could get all their gear on one flight. As a result most teams fly to a nearby city (Marquette, Green Bay, Duluth) which handles larger aircraft, and bus the rest of the way in. Also much better suited for weather delays when you have more flights per day and as you're aware it snows from time to time in the Copper Country. :-)

Keep in mind that most teams will bus way farther than John Q Public is willing to drive for a trip for cost reasons. I believe in the old WCHA Tech only flew to the CO schools and Anchorage.

Ryan J
 
None of them currently take into account momentum. At one point the PWR included a criteria based on record over last 10 games I think? Now that would be pretty unfair, slanted towards a team ranked 5-8 in ECAC/HEA that got on a hot streak in the playoffs.

Agree 100% on not using momentum in PWR. Just wondering how it effects the accuracy of the prediction models.
 
Re: Season 95, Vol 2: Michigan Tech '15-'16

To the best of my knowledge, visiting teams don't fly into CMX due to the small size of the planes that are used (50 seat regional jets) and the high cost. Right now United (O'Hare to CMX) is the only airline that flies to CMX. They run two flights daily, both with 50 seat regional jets.

Assuming you booked the flight far enough in advance to get the whole team/staff seated on a single flight, there is no way you could get all their gear on one flight. As a result most teams fly to a nearby city (Marquette, Green Bay, Duluth) which handles larger aircraft, and bus the rest of the way in. Also much better suited for weather delays when you have more flights per day and as you're aware it snows from time to time in the Copper Country. :-)

Keep in mind that most teams will bus way farther than John Q Public is willing to drive for a trip for cost reasons. I believe in the old WCHA Tech only flew to the CO schools and Anchorage.

Ryan J
I rather think it's the price. the equipment will fit, But the price is real high. I've noticed a number of teams who charter the same size airplane to games. In particular Wisconsin, so reference them going to the north country next year, once they get on an airplane it's all the same. in fact since charters are based on miles, it's cheaper than a boston game.
 
Re: Season 95, Vol 2: Michigan Tech '15-'16

I rather think it's the price. the equipment will fit, But the price is real high. I've noticed a number of teams who charter the same size airplane to games. In particular Wisconsin, so reference them going to the north country next year, once they get on an airplane it's all the same. in fact since charters are based on miles, it's cheaper than a boston game.
Michigan Tech used to fly out of CMX all the time, and were very organized on what needed to go on the plane with them and what could arrive later. The switch from Delta to United was brutal because the new people didn't understand all those details and the wrong stuff got there with the team and important things were left for a later flight.
 
To the best of my knowledge, visiting teams don't fly into CMX due to the small size of the planes that are used (50 seat regional jets) and the high cost. Right now United (O'Hare to CMX) is the only airline that flies to CMX. They run two flights daily, both with 50 seat regional jet
Assuming you booked the flight far enough in advance to get the whole team/staff seated on a single flight, there is no way you could get all their gear on one flight. As a result most teams fly to a nearby city (Marquette, Green Bay, Duluth) which handles larger aircraft, and bus the rest of the way in. Also much better suited for weather delays when you have more flights per day and as you're aware it snows from time to time in the Copper Country. :-)

Keep in mind that most teams will bus way farther than John Q Public is willing to drive for a trip for cost reasons. I believe in the old WCHA Tech only flew to the CO schools and Anchorage.

Ryan J
Thanks for explanation. That does make sense now.
I remember years ago, it must have been the early 80's, I thought DC9 or DC10's use to fly out of here and I thought they held more people(don't remember how many seat were on those).With few people boarding that went by the wayside, which I can understand. Then we had prop jets flying out of here.
Those were brutal. That was my first ride on a plane out of here.You couldn't even stand up in those to get to your seat. Scary stuff...shaky take-off too.
 
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Thanks for explanation. That does make sense now.
I remember years ago, it must have been the early 80's, I thought DC9 or DC10's use to fly out of here and I thought they held more people(don't remember how many seat were on those).With few people boarding that went by the wayside, which I can understand. Then we had prop jets flying out of here.
Those were brutal. That was my first ride on a plane out of here.You couldn't even stand up in those to get to your seat. Scary stuff...shaky take-off too.

DC-10 was a trijet widebody. I doubt those ever flew in or out of Houghton. :)

I could see DC-9-15s or 30s back in the days before the RJ craze though.
 
Re: Season 95, Vol 2: Michigan Tech '15-'16

WCHA should just get a Net Jets account. For many trips the price has to be competitive with commercial flights.
 
Re: Season 95, Vol 2: Michigan Tech '15-'16

Also, since we're talking about travel, we're only minutes away from that dumbass davyd coming in here and spouting off the same tired post about traveling, like he's the only one on the internet thats ever been on an airplane.
 
Re: Season 95, Vol 2: Michigan Tech '15-'16

Have no idea how you'd do it (or if it's worth the time), but do you or does KRACH take into account momentum? Take a Northeastern this year... My guess is their probability of winning this weekend is much higher than KRACH or their PWR suggests. Terrible start, but maybe one of the best teams out there in the second half.

Maybe some kind of rolling average on win % and SOS? Again, not sure it's worth the headache.

KRACH is reflexive: it only tells you who has done what, and the ideas of relative strength are, per the originator, not supposed to be predictive.

That said, you can view BELOW in a momentum-like manner. Through most of the second half, I would add last-10 or similar columns to the tables for my weekly rankings posts. For example, there's the penultimate one: http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2016/02/28/2015-16-week-22-below/. If you took the 2016 results for each of those teams, you find the following:

Tech (+82) was rising hotter than NMU was (+21).
Ferris (+2) and Lake (-5) were playing pretty much at their potential over the last few weeks.
BGSU (+8) and UAH (+3) are who we thought they were, which makes that split look very strange.
BSU (+73) was rising up, while MSU was flagging (-21).
UAA (-125) was in freefall, while UAF was just merely down after their early precipitous fall (-18).

Mind you, what happened that week was largely predictable, but if I'd said, "Let's let some concept of momentum help drive our decision," I would probably have gone with four of those five results (I had BGSU creaming UAH while trying to get to the MacNaughton).

It's something that I'll have to evaluate over the summer as I tweak a predictive model.

I've done high/low; I can do week-by-week graphs if people are interested. http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2016/03/06/2015-16-below-beginning-to-end/

GFM
 
Re: Season 95, Vol 2: Michigan Tech '15-'16

what Shirtless said about United. Delta was much better, not just for the team and its equipment but for the hours and connection in Minneapolis instead of Chicago.
 
Re: Season 95, Vol 2: Michigan Tech '15-'16

Also, since we're talking about travel, we're only minutes away from that dumbass davyd coming in here and spouting off the same tired post about traveling, like he's the only one on the internet thats ever been on an airplane.

To be fair, your whining about it every time is just as predictable...
 
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