Re: SCSU @ UNO 1st Round NCHC Playoffs: Unleash the Worry
I know you're a numbers/stats guy so I figured you'd appreciate this:
Despite being 6th out of 8 teams in the conference, we gave up tied for the 2nd fewest goals in conference play with 56, one behind UND's 55. That would make it sound like we can't score, but we finished fourth with a respectable 69 goals. Our +13 goal differential is tied with Miami for 2nd behind UND. And just think if we'd gotten a second series with CC, at home no less.
Omaha is tied for 2nd with us in goals surrendered, 56, and has scored 2 less than us. Their 67 are the 6th most in the conference.
I am NOT trying to make the argument that these numbers indicate SCSU is/was vastly better than UNO, or even better at all. Just pointing out how in the NCHC, there's a very fine line between how the teams in the middle finish, and I have the feeling that 3-6 will be separated by very little year after year (heck, this year you can throw in Miami and I think make an argument for WMU in that mix as well).
Yeah, I am a huge sabermetrics fan and wish that something approximating that approach to hockey existed for college hockey.
You are absolutely right. There is an an incredibly fine line in our league. Just ask DU, who played into the NCAA tourney last year in the conference's first season. That would be a bigger surprise, I think, this season, but I don't think its
impossible that it could happen again this season. I'd like WMU's chances much better than CC (and, I have yet to look at the actual brackets, I might add).
If we lose our series with you guys next weekend, I'll be shocked, like, not at all. Given how young we are and what, basically, the same cast and characters on your team did last season, I'd have hard time saying I'd be crushingly disappointed if SCSU does prevail next weekend.
SCSU would be a legitimate threat to win any other other conference tourney in the country this season. Hell, you could win ours.
The more I think about it, the more I think UNO is currently playing with house money this season. We've exceeded my expectations on the season, frankly. My REAL hope had been (and, is) for
next season, when I think UNO is a legitimate pre-season top 10 team, with another great recruiting class arriving, playing in a new arena, and might be a legitimate title threat (NCAA) if they have somebody that surfaces to play goalie at the level that will require.
Whatever happens in the rest of UNO's season, I see as laying groundwork for next. I can't see us being a serious factor in the NCAA tourney (IF we actually get there) and, how far we go, both in the conference tourney, and in the NCAA's, are all just gravy from here, being realistic.
Boy, do I wish we hadn't burned Massa's redshirt two years ago. I guarantee that our staff, had they known what the lay of the land is, now, would not have done this.