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SCOTUS 14: Confirming a Rabid Partisan to Own the Libs

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dxmnkd316 said:
Because you spend money to get the best bang for your buck. It's basically the money spent times the difference in the Dem vs Rep for voting in Congress. You also have to weigh the likelihood that dollar will be effective.

$ * (D-R) * Effectiveness = value of that dollar

Effectiveness might be the 100 minus the abs value of the delta in the polls.

You focus your money where you can get the most Congressional vote per dollar. I'm betting it tracks pretty closely with the Trump +/- on 538.

1. Jon Tester - D/2012 - MT - 47.3% delta from expected alignment w/ trump - DSCC spent $4.14 million in that race or 6.7% of their total expenses.
2. Sherrod Brown - D/2012 - OH - 40.2% - $7.0M - 11.3%
3. Claire McCaskill - D/2012 - MO - 37.4% - $3.9M - 6.2%
4. Heidi Heitkamp - D/2012 - ND - 36.3% - $4.5M - 7.2%
5. Doug Jones - D/2018 - AL - 32.2% - ??? - ???
6. Joe Manchin - D/2012 - WV - 32.0% - $0.0M - 0.0% * $0 in 2012 likely because he was polling +30. So that's where the effectiveness factor comes in.
7. Tammy Baldwin - D/2012 - WI - 32.0% - $7.9M - 12.7%
8. Joe Donnelly - D/2012 - IN - 28.5% - $4.2M - 6.8%
9. Al Franken - D/2012 - MN - 25.9% - $0.0M - 0.0% - Likely because he was polling well but public polls had him at +10-15%
10. Jeff Merkley - D/2014 - OR - 24.4% - $0.0M - 0.0% - Won by 20%
11. Robert Casey - D/2012 - PA - 24.2% - $0.2M - 0.3% - Won by 9%
12. Debbie Stabenow - $0 - Won by 20%
13. Gary Peters - D/2014 - MI - 21.4% - $5.0M - 6.8% - won by 13%
14. Tina Smith - D/2018 TBD
15. Amy Klobuchar - $0 - Won by 35%!!
16. Maggie Hassan - D/2016 - NH - 19.4% - $22.2M - 18.7%
17. Cory Booker - $0 - Won by 13%
18. Ron Wyden - $0 - Won by 33%!
...
21. Catherine Masto - D/2016- NV - 15.3% - $15.3M - 12.9%
...
23. Michael Bennett - D/2010 - 14.5% - $8.5M - 16.3%
24. Bill Nelson - D/2012 - FL - 14.1% - $5.0M - 8.0%
...
31. Tim Kaine - D/2012 - VA - 8.6% - $9.0M - 14.5% - ????????? Probably just a raw numbers game here. Protect the seat.
..
33. Chris Murphy - D/2012 - CT - 5.2% - $4.3M - 6.9%


Losses:
78. Mary Landrieu - D/2014 - LA - (-9.2%) - $5.1M - 7.0% - Lost by 11.8% :-\ w t f were they spending money here for?
79. Baron Hill - D/2016 - IN - (-9.6%) - $12.7M - 10.7% - Lost by 9.7% - more wt f? Both of these top ones are so bizarre since the people who were elected there aren't voting out of line with their state.
81. Mark Begich - D/2014 - AK - (-14.2%) - $6.4M - 8.8% - Lost by 2.2%
82. Jason Kander - D/2016 - MO - (-12.7%) - $13.0M - 11.0%
87. Richard Carmona - D/2012 - AZ - (-23.6%) - $4.0M - 6.3% Fixed
88. Bruce Braley - D/2014 - IA - (-19.3%) - $12.4M - 17.1% - Lost by 8.3%, again w t f?
94. Deborah Ross - D/2016 - NC - (-33.1%) - $24.3M - 20.6% - Lost by 5.7%
94. Kay Hagan - D/2014 - NC - (-33.6%) - $15.0M - 20.7% - Lost by 1.5%
97. Katie McGinty - D/2016 - PA - (-35.8%) - $24.8M - 21.0% - Lost by 1.5% - $10.2M in 2010 (Spector) as well. Lost there too.
99. Shelley Berkley - D/2012 - NV - (-43.1%) - $5.4M - 8.7% *Lost by 1.2% - Dean Heller is second most out of favor with the Dems relative to his state. Votes with Trump 92% of the time.
100. Mark Udall - D/2014 - CO - (-46.5%) - $10.1M - 14.0% - Lost by 1.9%. MOST out of favor with dems relative to the state. Gardner votes w/ trump 90.9%.

*There's always math, so shut up.
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Yeah this is total expenditures including the general election and neglects to show who their primary opponent is and how much money they (don’t) get from the party. Nobody is arguing that if the party decides to give vastly more money to Manchin than Swearingen, that he probably won’t win, obviously he will because money is probably the biggest predictor of who wins these races. My argument is that in a lot of these primaries (and I believe it was the intercept that showed some of the embarrassing losses they had where they threw money at the centrist who lost and told the more left candidate to exit the race) they don’t necessarily fund the best option and it’s more ideologically driven as that Cornell study showed.
 
unofan said:
You don't vote or live in Maine anymore, so no one cares what obvious troll says while obviously trolling.
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Drew hates the outside money for Collins opposition but I think he’s just fine with Russian money going to republicans.
Has anyone reminded him to breathe today?
 
unofan said:
You don't vote or live in Maine anymore, so no one cares what obvious troll says while obviously trolling.
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Au contraire. Even if I hadn’t moved back it’s where I’m from, where my family is, where I own land, etc. Susan Collins represents Maine, not CA or NY.
 
Re: SCOTUS 14: Confirming a Rabid Partisan to Own the Libs

trixR4kids said:
That has nothing to do with a primary.
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Ah yes. Let’s primary a Democrat in West Virginia.

Your brand of politics will go real well in the state that has the highest trump approval ratings.
 
Re: SCOTUS 14: Confirming a Rabid Partisan to Own the Libs

Well near as I can tell, trix's brand of politics is that everyone right of Bernie gets the bullet, so...
 
Re: SCOTUS 14: Confirming a Rabid Partisan to Own the Libs

Vote confirms him, 50-48. More winning! :D

*raises a glass of left-wing tears* Here's to more winning!
 
Re: SCOTUS 14: Confirming a Rabid Partisan to Own the Libs

Murkowski voted present rather than no since the Montana senator was at his daughter's wedding. If she had voted no, then Manchin's vote would've mattered.

Yep, they clearly coordinated that ahead of time.
 
Re: SCOTUS 14: Confirming a Rabid Partisan to Own the Libs

Deutsche Gopher Fan said:
I missed the circus today working and traveling, but why did Susan grandstand for so long? Why not just make a simple statement
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Because Suzie loves to be the center of attention. The "moderate" Republican who both sides have to court. Except she always ends up siding with the Republicans. Imagine that?
 
rufus said:
Because Suzie loves to be the center of attention. The "moderate" Republican who both sides have to court. Except she always ends up siding with the Republicans. Imagine that?
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Yeah which is why that description Scooby posted before was perfect.
 
Re: SCOTUS 14: Confirming a Rabid Partisan to Own the Libs

Oh and please don't respond to the 4chan wanna be bot. Don't give him the satisfaction.
 
Re: SCOTUS 14: Confirming a Rabid Partisan to Own the Libs

There is now no part of our government that isn't corrupted.
 
Re: SCOTUS 14: Confirming a Rabid Partisan to Own the Libs

Presumably Kavanaugh will be just blasted to the bejeezus on the shoulders of Squi and PJ, wearing mirrored shades, his tie for a headband, and a Georgetown Prep half-shirt with the sleeves ripped off, high five-ing everyone while being escorted by a couple dozen strippers rolling kegs down the aisle at his swearing in ceremony.
 
Re: SCOTUS 14: Confirming a Rabid Partisan to Own the Libs

Wisko McBadgerton said:
Presumably Kavanaugh will be just blasted to the bejeezus on the shoulders of Squi and PJ, wearing mirrored shades, his tie for a headband, and a Georgetown Prep half-shirt with the sleeves ripped off, high five-ing everyone while being escorted by a couple dozen strippers rolling kegs down the aisle at his swearing in ceremony.
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This was never about that, but sure, you go for sarcasm if it makes you feel good about all of this.
 
Wisko McBadgerton said:
Presumably Kavanaugh will be just blasted to the bejeezus on the shoulders of Squi and PJ, wearing mirrored shades, his tie for a headband, and a Georgetown Prep half-shirt with the sleeves ripped off, high five-ing everyone while being escorted by a couple dozen strippers rolling kegs down the aisle at his swearing in ceremony.
Click to expand...

Or, he has a Jebby in full ecclesiastical garments preceded by an acolyte swinging a thurfir and a cross bearer leading him into the swearing in
 
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