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SCOTUS 12: Will Kavanaugh Be Confirmed?

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The Sicatoka said:
Thirty years ago, claims of recollections already out there, if I'm supposed to set book on that ... hmmm ...

I'll go 8:1 says the FBI comes back with "we can't substantiate beyond what the Committee already has" or some other similarly obtuse finding.
Click to expand...

Probably a good bet.

Flake stuck it to Itch but might have saved Kavanaugh. What might do him in though is the FBI knows where Judge is and won't let him get away with "I don't remember" and "the book is fiction and a coincidence".
 
Re: SCOTUS 12: Will Kavanaugh Be Confirmed?

The Sicatoka said:
So Flake just pulled off the ultimate ...

I'll vote yes here and now but I'm voting no on the floor vote unless

A) one week has passed, and
B) FBI has investigated.


Plus Flake all but said he got the Ds to say they'll tone down the rhetoric if the FBI comes back with nothing more than what's out there now (i.e. unsubstantiated claims).

On his way out the door Flake's jammed up ol' Mitch.
Click to expand...

Per my previous post, it didn't seem that he would just sign up to vote yes, seemed that he was the one hesitating and that Collins/Murkowski were the yes votes. Jeff is not the one who is the flake here.

The Sicatoka said:
Between now and a week from now the over/under for new claims against Kavanaugh is 2.5 new claimants. Place your bets.
Click to expand...

Yeah...and probably legitimate victims too.
 
Re: SCOTUS 12: Will Kavanaugh Be Confirmed?

Handyman said:
That won't be what takes him down. My bet has been he knocked up some girl and had mommy and daddy pay her off.
Click to expand...

Ah ... but Flake was very careful ... he said "investigate the claims before this Committee" ... would the FBI go looking for that.

Should something like that roll out now it makes yesterday's R roilings about "timing" yesterday all the more. And, should the first half of your posit be real, are Kavanaugh's parents well enough off to do the second portion?
 
Re: SCOTUS 12: Will Kavanaugh Be Confirmed?

Handyman said:
Probably a good bet.

Flake stuck it to Itch but might have saved Kavanaugh. What might do him in though is the FBI knows where Judge is and won't let him get away with "I don't remember" and "the book is fiction and a coincidence".
Click to expand...

You downplay Judge's "I'm a drunk and don't remember" out.

And the book? Well ... "I never saw Brett act in the manner Dr. Ford describes."
 
The Sicatoka said:
Ah ... but Flake was very careful ... he said "investigate the claims before this Committee" ... would the FBI go looking for that.

Should something like that roll out now it makes yesterday's R roilings about "timing" yesterday all the more. And, should the first half of your posit be real, are Kavanaugh's parents well enough off to do the second portion?
Click to expand...

If the FBI investigates and finds something else it is still relevant. Plus it would destroy his credibility on the "I didn't drink to excess" and "I didn't do anything like what she accused me of" statements. That is why you never speak in absolutes much easier to impeach.

BTW Flake's Gambit only works if he knows Heitkamp and Manchin are "no" votes as of now. Also probably means Collins and Murkowski are undecided but leaning yes.
 
Re: SCOTUS 12: Will Kavanaugh Be Confirmed?

I seem to have been taken out to the woodshed by the resident centrist while I was out. I'll explain my position so it's clear.

I believe her.
If this were a criminal court I doubt a jury could convict on the standard of "Beyond a reasonable doubt". However, the jury may hang and not acquit.
If this were a civil court and it was based on the preponderance if the evidence there is no doubt in my mind she would win the case.
Why do I say that?

Because she knew her attacker. I knew the guy who assaulted me in junior high. No, it wasn't sexual assault. It was physical assault. He attacked me in the hallway in front of 15 classmates. I could tell you his name. I know his face. I know his brother cause his brother is the one who told him to attack me. He grabbed me by the arm. Threw me up against the wall. I landed on the floor facedown. And then he kicked me in the face. Then he ran.

I could not tell you the identity of any of those 15 witnesses. I also could not tell you the name of the Vice Principal that I talked to about it. My parents refused to press charges. My dad, as was his custom, blamed me for the attack just like he always blamed me for being teased.

Yes, I believe her. And I do not believe him.
 
The Sicatoka said:
You downplay Judge's "I'm a drunk and don't remember" out.

And the book? Well ... "I never saw Brett act in the manner Dr. Ford describes."
Click to expand...

You do know being questioned by the FBI is different right? He went into hiding for a reason. If he can't handle the press he will pee his pants when special agents come knocking.

Let's not forget the FBI aren't exactly in love with the GOP right now. Trump and his humpers blame them for everything and basically call them traitors.
 
Re: SCOTUS 12: Will Kavanaugh Be Confirmed?

Handyman said:
That won't be what takes him down. My bet has been he knocked up some girl he date raped and had mommy and daddy pay her off.
Click to expand...

Since we're playing "what if they find" ...

What if the FBI finds irrefutable proof that Dr. Ford is being untruthful in her claim against Kavanaugh.
 
Re: SCOTUS 12: Will Kavanaugh Be Confirmed?

The Sicatoka said:
Since we're playing "what if they find" ...

What if the FBI finds irrefutable proof that Dr. Ford is being untruthful in her claim against Kavanaugh.
Click to expand...

Then he will be seated with Democratic votes. Despite the fact that even without this allegation he's not fit for the Court and never has been.
 
FadeToBlack&Gold said:
Or pay for her abortion.
Click to expand...

Oh god...the fallout would be delicious.

Also remember Sicatoka the Feds won't be the only ones digging up dirt. Avenatti will go public with any info his already private investigators can find. Public perception can shift massively either way in a week.
 
Re: SCOTUS 12: Will Kavanaugh Be Confirmed?

The Sicatoka said:
Ah ... but Flake was very careful ... he said "investigate the claims before this Committee" ... would the FBI go looking for that.

Should something like that roll out now it makes yesterday's R roilings about "timing" yesterday all the more. And, should the first half of your posit be real, are Kavanaugh's parents well enough off to do the second portion?
Click to expand...

I thought about those "limitations" Flake mentioned. But as the old saying goes, you can't unsee something. If something else pops up, especially if it's explosive, Kavanaugh is done. "Limitations" be dammed.
 
Re: SCOTUS 12: Will Kavanaugh Be Confirmed?

So if you're, like, on a committee that decides to advance someone, and you don't want to advance someone until a thing is done yet, and that thing hasn't been done, shouldn't you, like, maybe, not advance the person?
 
ScoobyDoo said:
I seem to have been taken out to the woodshed by the resident centrist while I was out. I'll explain my position so it's clear.

I believe her.
If this were a criminal court I doubt a jury could convict on the standard of "Beyond a reasonable doubt". However, the jury may hang and not acquit.
If this were a civil court and it was based on the preponderance if the evidence there is no doubt in my mind she would win the case.
Why do I say that?

Because she knew her attacker. I knew the guy who assaulted me in junior high. No, it wasn't sexual assault. It was physical assault. He attacked me in the hallway in front of 15 classmates. I could tell you his name. I know his face. I know his brother cause his brother is the one who told him to attack me. He grabbed me by the arm. Threw me up against the wall. I landed on the floor facedown. And then he kicked me in the face. Then he ran.

I could not tell you the identity of any of those 15 witnesses. I also could not tell you the name of the Vice Principal that I talked to about it. My parents refused to press charges. My dad, as was his custom, blamed me for the attack just like he always blamed me for being teased.

Yes, I believe her. And I do not believe him.
Click to expand...

My name is Handyman and I approve (and feel exactly the same as) this message. I know the name and face of everyone who bullied me post 3rd grade and in many cases could tell you when and where it happened.
 
Re: SCOTUS 12: Will Kavanaugh Be Confirmed?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Warning - If the committee advances the nomination this afternoon, my client and I are going to thoroughly enjoy embarrassing <a href="https://twitter.com/ChuckGrassley?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ChuckGrassley</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@LindseyGrahamSC</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/tedcruz?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@tedcruz</a> and all of the other GOP members on the committee this weekend when her story is told and is deemed credible.</p>— Michael Avenatti (@MichaelAvenatti) <a href="https://twitter.com/MichaelAvenatti/status/1045728933596016640?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 28, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-conversation="none" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">And if you think I am bluffing, you have not been paying attention the last 7 months. I don’t traffic in nonsense. I traffic in facts and evidence.</p>— Michael Avenatti (@MichaelAvenatti) <a href="https://twitter.com/MichaelAvenatti/status/1045729213536448513?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 28, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Re: SCOTUS 12: Will Kavanaugh Be Confirmed?

French Rage said:
So if you're, like, on a committee that decides to advance someone, and you don't want to advance someone until a thing is done yet, and that thing hasn't been done, shouldn't you, like, maybe, not advance the person?
Click to expand...

Yes. Flake didn't have the balls to cut his buddies off at the knees in the committee. So, he tried to screw Mitch. It won't work. I bet dollars to doughnuts that Mitch holds the vote tomorrow and blows off the FBI request. He'll lose only Flake which is enough to get it passed I believe.
 
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