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RPI 2012-2013 Season Thread

Re: RPI 2012-2013 Season Thread

The women working on their very own Hicks Screwjob with a disallowed goal as Taylor Horton was supposedly in the crease. Video replay showed that she stayed on the line until after the puck was in the net but our favorite ref thought otherwise. Still 1-1 with 1:36 left in the 3rd.

EDIT: Headed to OT.
EDIT 2: Tie. So only half of a screwjob.
 
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Re: RPI 2012-2013 Season Thread

I thought that RPI played one of their better games of the year on Friday in the 3-1 loss to Clarkson. RPI defence moved the puck up very well and the whole team looked equal to Clarkson throughout. Bodes well for preparing for the playoffs.

Today's 1-1 tie with St. Lawrence was a bit of a different story: both teams looked tired (one of those tough Saturday afternoon games) and our defence coughed up the puck in our end several times in the first two periods.
 
Re: RPI 2012-2013 Season Thread

The Engineers got away with a LOT of physical play and hitting this afternoon, and it worked to their advantage. If the officials called that game like most games are called in women's hockey, I don't think RPI comes out of that one with any points. It let them slow the Saints down and helped them dictate the pace of play.

Michelle Ng got plastered into the boards at the final buzzer and was down for a long time. Sounds like she may be done for the season, but hoping for a quicker recovery for her. Smelker was given a 5-minute major for body checking but coming at the buzzer it's not much of a deterrent.

The replay of the no-goal seemed to me to show Horton holding her ground at the top of the crease and SLU's goalie having a hard time seeing around her. I don't know that there was contact worthy of waving a goal off for. Not sure if Horton initiated it or the goalie. Will need to wait for RPITV to put the complete video up in order to take another look at it.
 
Re: RPI 2012-2013 Season Thread

GRussinko said:
The replay of the no-goal seemed to me to show Horton holding her ground at the top of the crease and SLU's goalie having a hard time seeing around her. I don't know that there was contact worthy of waving a goal off for.
Click to expand...
There doesn't have to be any contact, just for the player to be in the crease and interfering with goalie's ability to make the save. The replay to me looked inconclusive as to whether she entered the crease before the puck arrived; her skate was very close. The problem was that they ruled "no goal" on the ice, and I don't know that there was enough in the video to prove conclusively that it was the wrong call. Very close either way.
 
Re: RPI 2012-2013 Season Thread

ARM said:
There doesn't have to be any contact, just for the player to be in the crease and interfering with goalie's ability to make the save. The replay to me looked inconclusive as to whether she entered the crease before the puck arrived; her skate was very close. The problem was that they ruled "no goal" on the ice, and I don't know that there was enough in the video to prove conclusively that it was the wrong call. Very close either way.
Click to expand...

Agreed, I think based on the video that whatever the original call was would have stood. If they had called it a goal on the ice, I doubt the video would have turned it the other way either. Very borderline.
 
GRussinko said:
The Engineers got away with a LOT of physical play and hitting this afternoon, and it worked to their advantage. If the officials called that game like most games are called in women's hockey, I don't think RPI comes out of that one with any points. It let them slow the Saints down and helped them dictate the pace of play.

Michelle Ng got plastered into the boards at the final buzzer and was down for a long time. Sounds like she may be done for the season, but hoping for a quicker recovery for her. Smelker was given a 5-minute major for body checking but coming at the buzzer it's not much of a deterrent.

The replay of the no-goal seemed to me to show Horton holding her ground at the top of the crease and SLU's goalie having a hard time seeing around her. I don't know that there was contact worthy of waving a goal off for. Not sure if Horton initiated it or the goalie. Will need to wait for RPITV to put the complete video up in order to take another look at it.
Click to expand...

Interesting how this thread fails to mention Mahoney getting "plastered" from behind head/shoulder first into the boards earlier in the game. Hope her collar bone is not broken Back Referee missed it by skating out of the zone too early. Where's the "deterrent?!"
 
Re: RPI 2012-2013 Season Thread

hockey711 said:
Interesting how this thread fails to mention Mahoney getting "plastered" from behind head/shoulder first into the boards earlier in the game. Hope her collar bone is not broken Back Referee missed it by skating out of the zone too early. Where's the "deterrent?!"
Click to expand...

The early diagnosis is her shoulder is not seperated but there could be ligament damage
 
Re: RPI 2012-2013 Season Thread

hockey711 said:
Interesting how this thread fails to mention Mahoney getting "plastered" from behind head/shoulder first into the boards earlier in the game. Hope her collar bone is not broken Back Referee missed it by skating out of the zone too early. Where's the "deterrent?!"
Click to expand...

Good point and one which had slipped my mind since it happened earlier in the game. The point I was trying to make was that, in my opinion, RPI on the whole took more liberties physically over the course of the game than SLU did. That's not to say they were the only ones playing chippy. Didn't mean any offense by not mentioning Mahoney.
 
Re: RPI 2012-2013 Season Thread

Current Standings (by Points %):
--- Home Lock - 31+
Harvard 29-41 [1-5]
Clarkson 30-38 [1-5]
Cornell 30-38 [1-5]
Quinnipiac 24-32 [1-6]
St. Lawrence 24-32 [1-6]
--- In - 19+
Dartmouth 19-29 [4-9]
--- Home Eligible - 25+
Rensselaer 16-24 [6-11]
Colgate 11-19 [6-12]
Princeton 10-18 [7-12]
Yale 8-20 [6-12]
Brown 6-16 [7-12]
Union 3-11 [8-12]
--- Out - 11

Harvard, with their glut of games-in-hand are still in 1st place by Points Percentage.

Clarkson and Cornell split the season series and have identical 15-3-0 records, so it goes down to Record vs Top 4. Clarkson is 3-1-0 while Cornell is 2-3-0, so the Knights currently own the tiebreaker over the Big Red.

Quinnipiac beat St. Lawrence in November at home. They will face off again this weekend in Canton, NY to solidify this tiebreaker.

Remaining League Schedules:
Code: 
----------------------------------------------------------------
|              |    ||T2/12|F2/15|S2/16|T2/19|F2/22|S2/23|T2/26|
----------------------------------------------------------------
| Harvard      | HA ||     | @CR | @CG |  BN |  SL |  CK |  YA |
| Clarkson     | CK ||     |  PN |  QN |     | @DA | @HA |     |
| Cornell      | CR ||     |  HA |  DA |     | @RP | @UC |     |
| Quinnipiac   | QN ||     | @SL | @CK |     | @YA | @BN |     |
| St. Lawrence | SL ||     |  QN |  PN |     | @HA | @DA |     |
| Dartmouth    | DA ||  YA | @CG | @CR |     |  CK |  SL |     |
| Rensselaer   | RP ||     | @YA | @BN |     |  CR |  CG |     |
| Colgate      | CG ||     |  DA |  HA |     | @UC | @RP |     |
| Princeton    | PN ||     | @CK | @SL |     | @BN | @YA |     |
| Yale         | YA || @DA |  RP |  UC |     |  QN |  PN | @HA |
| Brown        | BN ||     |  UC |  RP | @HA |  PN |  QN |     |
| Union        | UC ||     | @BN | @YA |     |  CG |  CR |     |
----------------------------------------------------------------

That winter storm really screwed up scheduling. Now, Harvard has to play seven games in the last fourteen days of the regular season. That's something that I'm not sure even Cornell would wish upon them. Besides that, not every team will be finishing their season at the same time.

Individual Team Limits:
Teams Losing Out (Floors)
Harvard, Clarkson, and Cornell either have enough points that they can't be caught by Dartmouth or already own the tiebreaker against the Big Green and I can't find a way for them to lose a 3- (or more) way tiebreaker, but can be passed by Quinnipiac and St. Lawrence, so each of the Crimson, Knights, and Big Red have a floor of 5th place.

Both Quinnipiac and St. Lawrence have won the season series against RPI, so I can't find any reasonable way for the Bobcats or Saints to lose the tiebreaker to the Engineers. That means that both teams have a floor of 6th place.

Dartmouth can theoretically fall all the way into a tie with Colgate and would lose said theoretical tiebreaker and RPI and Yale would both still have enough theoretical points to gain to finish ahead of them. Therefore, the Big Green can potentially finish as low as 9th place.

Rensselaer can still theoretically fall to 11th place. Yale and Colgate can both outright pass the Engineers without taking any points from Brown or Princeton. If Brown wins the head-to-head matchup between the Bears and Tigers, there would be a three-way tie between them and RPI at 16 points with all three of them having split against the other two. Brown's 8-14-0 record (compared to Princeton and RPI's 7-13-2 records) would win the tiebreaker on ECAC wins. Princeton and RPI's tiebreaker would go down to Record vs Top 4. As long as Dartmouth stays out of the Top 4, then Princeton wins tiebreaker and the Engineers fall to 11th.

Colgate can't fall into 12th by themselves, but they can drop to a tie with Union and the Dutchwomen can win the tiebreaker. They would split the season series and have identical 4-15-3 records, making it another Top 4 decision. If Quinnipiac sneaks into the Top 4, then Union can win the tiebreaker by going 1-6-1 as opposed to 1-7-0.

Any team that is currently in the bottom four can finish by themselves in twelfth place.

Teams Winning Out (Ceilings)
Union can finish in 8th place. It would end up being a tie with at least Colgate. They can win the tiebreaker against Colgate on Record vs Top 4 if Quinnipiac and Cornell stay in the Top 4 or Yale could also finish in the tie with 11 points and the Dutchwomen and Lady Bulldogs would drop the Lady Raiders from the comparison and Union would win the head-to-head matchup against Yale.

Brown can finish in a tie for 7th place with Rensselaer. They would have hypothetically split the season series and Brown's 8-14-0 record would push them past the Engineers' 7-13-2 record on the basis of wins.

Yale can finish by themselves in 6th place, just ahead of Dartmouth.

Princeton cannot pass Dartmouth (they have two less games to play than Yale), but they can finish ahead of RPI and not have to deal with tiebreakers.

Colgate can jump up to a tie with Dartmouth and they would win based on the season series that they would be forced to win in this scenario. So, Colgate can finish with the #6 seed.

RPI can push themselves into a tie for 5th with either Quinnipiac or St. Lawrence (but not both, because they still have to play each other this Friday), but I can't find a way for the Engineers to win either one. Quinnipiac swept RPI (so that's a non-starter) while SLU won the season series 3 points to 1. Dartmouth (whom the Engineers won the season series against) could conceivably also finish with 24 points, making it a 3-way tie for 5th place, but SLU and Dartmouth would have split their season series, meaning that SLU would still win the 5 seed. Therefore, the best position I can find for the Engineers is 6th place (by themselves or losing a tiebreaker for 5th).

Dartmouth can possibly finish tied with Harvard for 3rd place. However, Harvard won the season series 3-1 and none of the teams against whom the Big Green have scored more points during the season series can also finish tied at 29 points, meaning that there are no "beneficial third teams" for Dartmouth. That means that Dartmouth's ceiling is 4th place.

St. Lawrence or Quinnipiac can still barely slip in and finish by themselves in 1st place. With Harvard still having to face off against both Cornell and Clarkson, if those two games end in ties and those three teams lose all of their other games, they would each finish with 31 points. One of St. Lawrence and Quinnipiac (but not both) can finish with 32 points. In the extreme case, all five teams could finish with exactly 31 points.

Each of the top 3 obviously can finish by themselves in 1st.

Thresholds:
Home Lock - St. Lawrence dropped a point to RPI on Saturday, meaning that this threshold drops from 32 to 31 plus requisite tiebreakers.

Home Eligible - With St. Lawrence and Quinnipiac at 24 points apiece with a game to play against each other, the minimum is 25 points plus tiebreakers. And, it is possible to keep them still in 4th and 5th place with 25 points, so... 25 it is. If you can get to 25 points, you can still play an extra pair of home games.

In - If Colgate and Yale win out their remaining games, they end up with 19 and 20 points, respectively and Rensselaer is still capable of finishing with 20. Assuming Dartmouth didn't lose each of their three remaining games, they would also end up with at least 20 points. Therefore, 8th place would have 20 and 9th would have 19. Therefore, 20 points are necessary to guarantee yourselves a spot in the ECAC Playoffs.

Out - If each of the Top 7 win all of their games against the Bottom 5, then there are 5 games remaining. But, now Union can't catch 8th place Colgate, so we let them win out. Now, Colgate's and Union's seasons are "over" with 11 and 9 points, respectively. Princeton has 10 points and two games remaining, one against Yale (at 8 points) and one against Brown (at 6 points). If Princeton loses both games, then the Lady Raiders don't earn any more points over the course of the season and still make the playoffs in 8th place. So, if you can get to more than 11 points and/or beat Colgate in a tiebreaker, your hopes for postseason are play are not dashed yet.

I'll run the remainder of the season through the simulation machine after tonight's Yale / Dartmouth game is over and post something tomorrow morning.
 
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Re: RPI 2012-2013 Season Thread

Current Standings (by Points %):
--- Home Lock - 31+
Harvard 29-41 [1-5]
Clarkson 30-38 [1-5]
Cornell 30-38 [1-5]
Quinnipiac 24-32 [1-6]
St. Lawrence 24-32 [1-6]
Dartmouth 21-29 [4-8]
--- In - 19+
--- Home Eligible - 25+
Rensselaer 16-24 [6-11]
Colgate 11-19 [6-12]
Princeton 10-18 [7-12]
Yale 8-18 [7-12]
Brown 6-16 [7-12]
Union 3-11 [8-12]
--- Out - 11

Harvard, with their glut of games-in-hand are still in 1st place by Points Percentage.

Clarkson and Cornell split the season series and have identical 15-3-0 records, so it goes down to Record vs Top 4. Clarkson is 3-1-0 while Cornell is 2-3-0, so the Knights currently own the tiebreaker over the Big Red.

Quinnipiac beat St. Lawrence in November at home. They will face off again this weekend in Canton, NY to solidify this tiebreaker.

Remaining League Schedules:
Code: 
----------------------------------------------------------
|              |    ||F2/15|S2/16|T2/19|F2/22|S2/23|T2/26|
----------------------------------------------------------
| Harvard      | HA || @CR | @CG |  BN |  SL |  CK |  YA |
| Clarkson     | CK ||  PN |  QN |     | @DA | @HA |     |
| Cornell      | CR ||  HA |  DA |     | @RP | @UC |     |
| Quinnipiac   | QN || @SL | @CK |     | @YA | @BN |     |
| St. Lawrence | SL ||  QN |  PN |     | @HA | @DA |     |
| Dartmouth    | DA || @CG | @CR |     |  CK |  SL |     |
| Rensselaer   | RP || @YA | @BN |     |  CR |  CG |     |
| Colgate      | CG ||  DA |  HA |     | @UC | @RP |     |
| Princeton    | PN || @CK | @SL |     | @BN | @YA |     |
| Yale         | YA ||  RP |  UC |     |  QN |  PN | @HA |
| Brown        | BN ||  UC |  RP | @HA |  PN |  QN |     |
| Union        | UC || @BN | @YA |     |  CG |  CR |     |
----------------------------------------------------------

Mease Rankings (THETA) as of 02/10/13:
Code: 
-------------------------
|     Team     |  Theta |
-------------------------
| Harvard      |  1.150 |
| Clarkson     |  1.000 |
| Cornell      |  1.331 |
| Quinnipiac   |  0.350 |
| St. Lawrence |  0.343 |
| Dartmouth    |  0.320 |
| Rensselaer   | -0.553 |
| Colgate      | -0.584 |
| Princeton    | -0.507 |
| Yale         | -1.113 |
| Brown        | -1.190 |
| Union        | -0.943 |
-------------------------

PHI = 0.195

And, here are the results, organized by expected final standings...
Mease Simulation (25,000 trials):
Code: 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|              |  1st |  2nd |  3rd |  4th |  5th |  6th |  7th |  8th |  9th | 10th | 11th | 12th | ExpPl |
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Harvard      | 64.7 | 21.7 | 13.6 | XXXX | XXXX | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- |  1.49 |
| Cornell      | 22.2 | 47.2 | 30.6 | XXXX | XXXX | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- |  2.08 |
| Clarkson     | 13.1 | 31.1 | 55.6 |  0.1 | XXXX | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- |  2.43 |
| Quinnipiac   | XXXX | XXXX |  0.1 | 73.2 | 26.0 |  0.7 | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- |  4.27 |
| St. Lawrence | XXXX | XXXX |  0.0 | 26.3 | 65.4 |  8.4 | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- |  4.82 |
| Dartmouth    | ---- | ---- | ---- |  0.4 |  8.6 | 88.7 |  2.3 | XXXX | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- |  5.93 |
| Rensselaer   | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- |  2.3 | 97.1 |  0.6 |  0.0 | XXXX | XXXX | ---- |  6.98 |
| Colgate      | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | XXXX |  0.4 | 58.2 | 36.4 |  4.8 |  0.1 | XXXX |  8.46 |
| Princeton    | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- |  0.2 | 36.9 | 51.1 | 10.3 |  1.6 | XXXX |  8.76 |
| Yale         | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | XXXX |  4.2 | 10.8 | 60.1 | 22.5 |  2.5 | 10.08 |
| Brown        | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | XXXX |  0.2 |  1.7 | 19.5 | 60.0 | 18.6 | 10.95 |
| Union        | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | XXXX |  0.0 |  5.3 | 15.8 | 78.9 | 11.74 |
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"XXXX" indicates that the finish is mathematically possible, but did not occur in any of the 25,000 trails. "----" indicates that it is not possible. "0.0" means that it occurred 12 times or less.

Here are the resulting quarterfinal match-ups. The hosting team is listed on the left and the away team is listed on top. These matchups adds up the number of occurrences of the 1v8, 2v7, 3v6, and 4v5 matchups and lists it all in one block.

HOST (the far right column) indicates how often a team finished in Spots 1-4. ROAD (bottom row) indicates how often a team finished in Spots 5-8. The difference of 100 and the sum of HOST and ROAD indicates how often a team missed the playoffs (Spots 9-12).

Potential Quarterfinal Match-ups:
Code: 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|TEAM|  HA  |  CR  |  CK  |  QN  |  SL  |  DA  |  RP  |  CG  |  PN  |  YA  |  BN  |  UC  | HOST |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| HA |  XX  |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.1 |  0.5 | 13.2 | 21.8 | 37.2 | 24.4 |  2.7 |  0.1 |  0.0 |100.0 |
| CR |  0.0 |  XX  |  0.0 |  0.2 |  2.9 | 27.7 | 46.8 | 13.8 |  7.6 |  0.9 |  0.0 |  0.0 |100.0 |
| CK |  0.0 |  0.0 |  XX  |  0.4 |  5.1 | 49.9 | 31.4 |  7.6 |  4.9 |  0.6 |  0.0 |  0.0 |100.0 |
| QN |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.0 |  XX  | 65.2 |  8.1 |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.0 | 73.3 |
| SL |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.0 | 25.7 |  XX  |  0.6 |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.0 | 26.3 |
| DA |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.4 |  0.1 |  XX  |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.4 |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|ROAD|  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.0 | 26.7 | 73.7 | 99.6 |100.0 | 58.6 | 37.0 |  4.2 |  0.2 |  0.0 |      |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RPI's expected point / place distribution.
Code: 
---------------------------------------------------------------------
|Pl\Pts| 16  | 17  | 18  | 19  | 20  | 21  | 22  | 23  | 24  |      |
---------------------------------------------------------------------
|  6th |   0 |   0 |   0 |   0 |   0 | 112 | 369 |  58 |  31 |  570 |
|  7th | 370 | 651 |3607 |3428 |8203 |3492 |4349 | 125 |  56 |24281 |
|  8th |  64 |  66 |  16 |   1 |   0 |   0 |   0 |   0 |   0 |  147 |
|  9th |   2 |   0 |   0 |   0 |   0 |   0 |   0 |   0 |   0 |    2 |
| 10th |   0 |   0 |   0 |   0 |   0 |   0 |   0 |   0 |   0 |    0 |
| 11th |   0 |   0 |   0 |   0 |   0 |   0 |   0 |   0 |   0 |    0 |
---------------------------------------------------------------------
|      | 436 | 717 |3623 |3429 |8203 |3604 |4718 | 183 |  87 |      |
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 
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Re: RPI 2012-2013 Season Thread

Although the score doesn't reflect it, I thought the Engineers played a great game against Yale tonight, in their 4-2 win. I really like what I see with this team...I think that they are developing into a unit that could cause a surprise in the ECAC playoffs.
 
Re: RPI 2012-2013 Season Thread

Colgate lost to Dartmouth, so we have clinched a playoff spot!!! If we win out and Dartmouth loses out, we can take 6th, but given we still have to face Cornell, it seems unlikely. The best Princeton can do is tie us, and we split the season series with them. Unfortunately, Princeton has 2 points against Clarkson, who is likely to stay top 4, so they would win that tiebreaker. So, we must take another point to guarantee 7th.
 
Re: RPI 2012-2013 Season Thread

lugnut92 said:
Colgate lost to Dartmouth, so we have clinched a playoff spot!!! If we win out and Dartmouth loses out, we can take 6th, but given we still have to face Cornell, it seems unlikely. The best Princeton can do is tie us, and we split the season series with them. Unfortunately, Princeton has 2 points against Clarkson, who is likely to stay top 4, so they would win that tiebreaker. So, we must take another point to guarantee 7th.
Click to expand...

If Dartmouth loses out, we only need 5 points. We have the series over Dartmouth.
 
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