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RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

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Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

engineerhockeyfan said:
I distinctly remember the last time RPI got into the tournament, Colorado College having a fit that they were left out. I can't say for sure if they had a better PWR, but they certainly felt that they got screwed.
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I too remember a year when Colorado College was out of the tournament even though they finished first in their league but was eliminated in the first round of the league playoffs-do not recall the year but i think it goes back before they computed PWR as they do now.
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

knsmith said:
I agree with your basic challenge to premise of using raw KRACH for weighting probabilities (especially in the ECAC consolation game), but how can you purport to come to these conclusions without accounting for the goings on in other conferences? For example, my understanding is that if we were to get perfect results in the CCHA, we would likely be in even with an upset ECAC winner (Cornell or Colgate). Indeed, a Cornell win tonight helps us in that scenario.
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I didn't mean to imply that ranking in or out of the tournament would be the final result. To get there all of the games need to be played of course. I was trying to show the impact of the ECAC games only and implying that the relationship carries to the wider comparisons - and in fact after a little more checking, they do.

I think we all agree that the most likely scenario is for a favorite to win a particular game (else they wouldn't be favored right?). Extending that, the most likely outcome of a tournament is for all favorites to win (not that most likely means anything close to the "likely" outcome). I set the other 4 conferences to show all of the favorites winning out and then ran the 16 permutations for the ECAC to get a feel for the relative merits of the various ECAC outcomes. That's only 16 scenarios to find the "most likely" outcome. And the results are:


Outcome RPI Ranking
CGDY 0.524 15 (13T)
CGYD 0.524 13 (11T)
CYDG 0.5238 14 (13T)
CYGD 0.5241 13 (11T)
DGCY 0.5241 14 (13T)
DGYC 0.5241 14 (13T)
DYCG 0.5237 14 (13T)
DYGC 0.524 13 (12T)
GCDY 0.5243 15 (13T)
GCYD 0.5243 13 (11T)
GDCY 0.5244 15 (13T)
GDYC 0.5244 13 (11T)
YCDG 0.5238 14 (13T)
YCGD 0.5241 13 (11T)
YDCG 0.5237 15
YDGC 0.524 13 (11T)

Note that the 4 letter refer to the order of finish (G is for Colgate). Note that we finish out of the NCAA's in 4 scenarios - 2 with Cornell as champ and 2 with Colgate winning. We are in so long as D and Y win round #1. Root for Dartmouth!
 
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Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

I guess all I had to do was go to page two of this thread to get my answer (should have done that before posting).....Nice job RHamilton, makes the rest of us looks like fools ;)
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

Saints#1 said:
I guess all I had to do was go to page two of this thread to get my answer (should have done that before posting).....Nice job RHamilton, makes the rest of us looks like fools ;)
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Am I the only person on this board that has the posts listed from earliest to latest?
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

DrDemento said:
Now I'm even more confused on who to root for in the Dartmouth/Cornell game. I know every game has an effect but for some reason that is the one I just cannot figure out. I have read everyone's posts on it-and still find myself not knowing.
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I think it's clear... given a choice for someone to root against doesn't Cornell almost always win?
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

What the heck would we have done if we won a few games down the strech.....For these engineer/math types this appears to be about as much fun as one can have your clothes on....and for any non RPI people dropping in whom just didn't get all the fuss re: RPI and the pride alum have for the quality of education you get @ the 'Tute I hope now you get it...granted its no Ivy League Psycology or History Degree or for that fact Hotel Mgm't degree(only kidding/or not) but these are some ******* bright kids !!!!!!!!
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

troyboy said:
What the heck would we have done if we won a few games down the strech.....For these engineer/math types this appears to be about as much fun as one can have your clothes on....and for any non RPI people dropping in whom just didn't get all the fuss re: RPI and the pride alum have for the quality of education you get @ the 'Tute I hope now you get it...granted its no Ivy League Psycology or History Degree or for that fact Hotel Mgm't degree(only kidding/or not) but these are some ******* bright kids !!!!!!!!
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You got that right. :cool::D
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

FlagDUDE08 said:
Am I the only person on this board that has the posts listed from earliest to latest?
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I had no idea you could do that, or at least I have never tried to play around with my settings before to see if I could. Thanks FlagDUDE08
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

RHamilton, is there a chance that we could get an update on our chances after the first round of semis?
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

Miami now up 4-0 even more excellenter! And Denver now over BSU 4-2 in the 3rd.
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

Sitting here with 3 TVs on and watching 3 games WCHA, CCHA and ECAC all on at the same time. This is college hockey heaven!
 
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