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RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

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Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

Bemidji beats Minnesota-Duluth 3-2 in OT. So even more than before, GO SEAWOLVES!!!
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

Not sure if it was mentioned earlier, but...

UAA vs. CC on Fox Sports Central (TimeWarner cable channel 671) @ 8pm EDT
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

Unfortunately, CC leads UAA 2-0 after one period. Cheer for the Seawolves even harder!
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

CC beats UAA 4-2. Not what we wanted at all. Who do we cheer for now?
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

I'm re-KRACHing and running a bunch of scenarios to determine the most important game for us tomorrow. Hopefully 30-45 minutes until I have some data.
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

I'm re-KRACHing and running a bunch of scenarios to determine the most important game for us tomorrow. Hopefully 30-45 minutes until I have some data.

Thanks so much. You're pretty much the only one keeping me optimistic.
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

Thanks so much. You're pretty much the only one keeping me optimistic.

Updated rankings with new KRACH. I also fixed a bug where RIT's KRACH was equal to our's (not sure how it happened), but it shot RIT farther down the order. I double checked everyone else's KRACH and there were no other mistakes.
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/default.html

Individual "what-ifs" coming soon.
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond


"An assistant captain from Edina, Minn., Polacek is just the third player in the league’s 50-year history to earn the Player of the Year Award twice. Rensselaer’s Bob Brinkworth won the award following the 1962-63 and 1963-64 seasons and Harvard’s Scott Fusco was recognized after the 1984-85 and 1985-86 campaigns."

And if they gave the award to the right person in 1985, we would have the only two. :D
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

Updated rankings with new KRACH. I also fixed a bug where RIT's KRACH was equal to our's (not sure how it happened), but it shot RIT farther down the order. I double checked everyone else's KRACH and there were no other mistakes.
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/default.html

Individual "what-ifs" coming soon.
Our range shrunk from 10-19 to 11-17. It's nice to see a couple of the outlier scenarios being eliminated. I'm assuming that we're pretty indifferent about the rest of the WCHA tourney at this point. Same with the AHA tourney (other than we want the UConn / RIT winner to win on Saturday for that huge 0.0002 boost to our RPI).

It seems like Western or Dartmouth losing twice have the biggest influence on our chances with other, slightly riskier scenarios still lurking in the wings.

Also, I'm curious to see some of the 11th place scenarios.

ETA: One more thing, teams that need to play their way into the tournament by way of auto-bid (Northeastern, Colgate, etc.) have their "out of tournament" scenarios add up to 100%. Is that supposed to happen? Shouldn't "out of tournament" and "in tournament" combined add up to 100%. Otherwise, fantastic job as usual.
 
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Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

I'm assuming that we're pretty indifferent about the rest of the WCHA tourney at this point.

Surprisingly, my program seems to indicate that the outcome of the CC / UND game is the most important game for us tomorrow, and that we want CC to win. I was quite taken aback when it suggested that. Looking at the data a bit more, it seems that the CC comparison is a lost cause and that a UND win causes UNO to rise past us in the rankings. I sent the data off to Tom; I'm hoping he has a better idea why it would suggest this.

The 2nd most important game, according to the program, is Miami vs. Notre Dame, where we want a Miami victory. That one makes a lot more sense to me, as we still have a shot of flipping the Notre Dame comparison. 3rd most important is Merrimack vs. New Hampshire, where we want a Merrimack victory. 4th is Michigan vs. Western Michigan, where we want Michigan. The rest we're mostly indifferent toward, according to the program -- no single result has a large impact either way in the other 6 games.

ETA: One more thing, teams that need to play their way into the tournament by way of auto-bid (Northeastern, Colgate, etc.) have their "out of tournament" scenarios add up to 100%. Is that supposed to happen? Shouldn't "out of tournament" and "in tournament" combined add up to 100%. Otherwise, fantastic job as usual.

Ah, I was hoping no one would catch that. I added auto-bids to the "in tournament" section using a custom case but didn't subtract them from the "out of tournament". I figured it wasn't a big deal as that section isn't as important as the "in tournament" section.
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

Also, I'm curious to see some of the 11th place scenarios.

Here's an 11. My guess is they involve eliminating Cornell as a TUC, but I didn't look at very many.

Code:
Atlantic Hockey
Semifinal #2: Holy Cross defeats Air Force
Semifinal #1: RIT defeats Connecticut
Championship game: RIT defeats Holy Cross
CCHA
Semifinal #2: Notre Dame defeats Miami
Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Western Michigan
Championship game: Michigan defeats Notre Dame
Consolation game: Miami defeats Western Michigan
ECAC
Semifinal #2: Dartmouth defeats Cornell
Semifinal #1: Yale defeats Colgate
Championship game: Yale defeats Dartmouth
Consolation game: Colgate defeats Cornell
Hockey East
Semifinal #2: Merrimack defeats New Hampshire
Semifinal #1: Northeastern defeats Boston College
Championship game: Northeastern defeats Merrimack
WCHA
Semifinal #2: Denver defeats Bemidji State
Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Colorado College
Championship game: North Dakota defeats Denver
 
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