I hope this is not considered a troll...but...
You could compare MN and MI...not incomparable programs. There were two periods where MN didn't make the NCAAs for three year stretches: 98, 99, 00 and 09, 10, 11. In the late stages of one, we let Woog go...and in the late stages of the other we kept Lucia. Both were coaches with great records. But the difference was in the Woog stretch, the team was just not good and underperformed. In the Lucia stretch, it was caused by a stellar foundation that was so good that it left early. We had EJ (number 1 overall), Okposo, Jim OBrien, Stu Bickel, Sam Lofquist and others...that left somewhere between their freshman or sophomore years. It left a gigantic whole in the program. The point is that there were reasons that we should hit the skids under Lucia and there weren't under Woog. Once Woog left and we had a single subsequent down year, we got numbers 4 and 5.