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Presidential Election Prediction Thread

Kepler

Kepler

Si certus es dubita
Go to 270towin.

If not there already go to the President tab.

Start from their default view (2016 Competitive). This appears to be the only way to include ME or NE splits. Go ahead and update your map so there are no beige undecideds.

List your EV totals here. Include the chain of changes you made from the default map if you want.

Here is my entry as an example:

(Changes right to left)

ME all blue
NH blue
NC blue
OH red
GA red
FL blue
MI blue
IA red
NE all red
AZ red
NV blue

Clinton 323 Trump 215
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

I got 340-197.

ME Split
NH blue
NC blue
OH blue
GA red
FL blue
MI blue
IA red
NE all red
AZ red
NV blue
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

308-230

ME all blue
NH blue
NC red
OH red
GA red
FL blue
MI blue
IA red
NE all red
AZ red
NV blue

Florida isn't called until 6am Wednesday, NC around midnight.
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

50-43-6-1 for Hillary/Orange Clown/Stoner/Loon. Trump loses about 10% of GOP vote from Romney's levels, most of which go and get baked with Gary Johnson on election night. :D

EV 341-197. Only states that flip from last time are IA goes Trump and NC goes Hillary. She holds Ohio as Trump needs a good GOTV on election day to overtime Hillary EV advantage, but he has no campaign in place to do so and the state GOP (Kasich, etc) hates him.

Senate 52-46 Dems. Dems win IL-WI-NH-PA-NC and at least one of IN-MO-FL (little Marco isn't out of the woods yet especially if Trump loses by more than a couple of %).

House about 20 seat gain primarily from states that Trump is going to get killed in, like IL/CA/NY as well as a giveback of some of the 25 or so GOP reps sitting in Dem districts.
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

I predict much higher turnout compared to past several national elections; I'll take the over at 65%. What that means, who knows?

Someone needs to take the other side, with appropriate odds, I suppose.

Trump 279, Clinton 259. Just to be a contrarian. ;)
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

341-197 Clinton

ME split
NH blue
NC blue
OH blue
GA red
FL blue
MI blue
IA red
NE split
AZ red
NV blue

That is my "If the FBI BS never really mattered" because that was my prediction after debate 3. When I did my more realistic one I had Florida and OH flipped and Clinton won 294-244.
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

FreshFish said:
I predict much higher turnout compared to past several national elections; I'll take the over at 65%. What that means, who knows?

Someone needs to take the other side, with appropriate odds, I suppose.

Trump 279, Clinton 259. Just to be a contrarian. ;)
Click to expand...
If he wins I see it this way.

270-268

ME split
NH red
NC red
OH red
GA red
FL red
MI blue
IA red
NE all red
AZ red
NV red
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

I'm not sure what the final outcome will be but I think Trump will do significantly better than people expect in ME, NH, CO, PA, MI, WI, and MN. It seems to me LePage (ME governor) did much better in the actual voting than the polls leading up to the election and in a lot of ways those elections were similar to this years presidential election. He is similar to Trump and ran against very flawed democrats. They were flawed in different ways than Clinton but flawed nonetheless.
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

Kepler said:
Can you post your states? I'm curious.
Click to expand...

Hey, we're "playing" with the map, no? I thought I'd flip a few states both ways that would be unexpected.

I gave Clinton GA, NV, NC.

I gave Trump AZ, IA, WI, MI, IN, OH, PA, NH, FL, 1 in ME, 4 in NE.

If you want to be more conventional, flip NC and WI back the other way.

and I ignored that "rogue" elector in WA or wherever it is...
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

Kepler said:
Go to 270towin.

If not there already go to the President tab.

Start from their default view (2016 Competitive). This appears to be the only way to include ME or NE splits. Go ahead and update your map so there are no beige undecideds.

List your EV totals here. Include the chain of changes you made from the default map if you want.

Here is my entry as an example:

(Changes right to left)

ME all blue
NH blue
NC blue
OH red
GA red
FL blue
MI blue
IA red
NE all red
AZ red
NV blue

Clinton 323 Trump 215
Click to expand...

322-216 Clinton

You and I are identical, except I spit-balled and gave ME-2 to Trump. I suspect you're probably correct, though.

Seriously, fck Ohio.
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

FreshFish said:
I gave Clinton GA, NV, NC.

I gave Trump AZ, IA, WI, MI, IN, OH, PA, NH, FL, 1 in ME, 4 in NE.
Click to expand...

That's an interesting angle. You could even push it further, like this:

Rust Belt Rebellion: Trump + PA, OH, MI, WI and IL.

The Unbroken Coast: Clinton + NC, SC, GA, FL, NH, solid ME

The Solid Prairie: Trump + IA, solid NE, MN, CO

Montezuma's Revenge: Hillary + NV, AZ, TX

Brave New Map: Clinton 312 Trump 226.
 
Last edited:
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

Clinton 278, Sniffles 260

Clinton: MI, NV, NH
Sniffles: FL, OH, GA, NC, AZ, IA, ME CD2, NE
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

I don't even have to read the paper to find out who won. All I have to see is who complains about a hangover from partying too hard, and who goes all emo and tries to slit their wrists. All while the Stein supporters, the Johnson supporters, and I sit in the corner and facepalm at the stupidity.
 
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