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PoTUS 45 LVXII: Pandemic Legacy Season 3

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Re: PoTUS 45 LVXII: Pandemic Legacy Season 3

French Rage said:
Bass has paid a small amount (say $1) to bet that a stock currently at $150 will be worth $100 on a certain date; at that date, the other side has to buy the stock at $100 if Bass so chooses. (I'm making up numbers here but the idea is the same.) That amount Bass paid ($1) is determined by how likely the drop is (which can depend on the company but ALSO how close it is currently to that price) and how long Bass has to exercise it (longer means there is more time for it to fall, so longer usually means you pay more for the put).

One way to make money is if the price drops below $100. If it's at $95, Bass gets a profit of $5 for each share ($4 total when you factor in the $1 Bass paid for each put).

But, Bass can also sell the put option, rather than exercise it. If the price drops down to $101, it starts to look pretty **** good that it will end up in the money (below the strike price). Other people will suddenly be willing to pay Bass more than $1 for it, because it's looking pretty darn likely it will go below $100, and Bass bought in back when it looked less likely. Bass can certainly wait and see if it drops below $100, but Bass could also see that someone is now willing to pay $5 for each put option, and that's a 500% increase over what Bass paid!

If the price goes in the money (below $100), Bass could even then still choose to sell the put option rather than exercise it. At that point, the option is DEFINITELY worth something. But maybe it will go down more, and be definitely worth more. Who knows? But the point is, someone will be willing to up what they pay for the option based on these factors.

So with options, there's the vanilla option of exercising it and the more interesting option of selling it based on how things change over time. Sort of like how for bonds there's the vanilla option of holding them to maturity, and selling them based on how rates and company factors change in the meantime.

I'm sure I missed some minor details here but hopefully the idea makes sense.
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Excellent summary.
 
aparch said:
Dump is 15 minutes late, and counting, for his own press conference.
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Probably hyperventilating that Nancy spoke first and still taking calls from donors on how much bail out money they get
 
Re: PoTUS 45 LVXII: Pandemic Legacy Season 3

dxmnkd316 said:
Ill bet the stock market rallies after this presser. Gut feeling. Unless the market has already priced it in. Probably has to some extent.

I’m hoping they announce something coherent. There’s probably an inverse correlation to how long trump speaks and how late in the day vs gains in the market.

I’m also guessing they’ve reached a deal with Pelosi. Watch her movements and that will tell you everything you need to know.
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I didn’t think I’d be THIS right. Especially given what I’ve been reading he actually said.

Five million tests in one week? Based on what? How are we ramping up this fast? Why not earlier? And then he says they are going to decide who gets tested not the doctors? That sounds like a massive ****ing tip-off they aren’t going to be close to five million.

They can’t do 1,000 this week. Five million next week? Lol.
 
Re: PoTUS 45 LVXII: Pandemic Legacy Season 3

dxmnkd316 said:
I didn’t think I’d be THIS right. Especially given what I’ve been reading he actually said.

Five million tests in one week? Based on what? How are we ramping up this fast? Why not earlier?
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He got rid of those Obama regulations that stopped it.
 
Re: PoTUS 45 LVXII: Pandemic Legacy Season 3

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Good to see everyone got the memo that their comments today needed to be at least 50% of praise for the president. <a href="https://t.co/Zd5J7rNNfc">https://t.co/Zd5J7rNNfc</a></p>— Kevin M. Kruse (@KevinMKruse) <a href="https://twitter.com/KevinMKruse/status/1238555264397213697?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 13, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
dxmnkd316 said:
I didn’t think I’d be THIS right. Especially given what I’ve been reading he actually said.

Five million tests in one week? Based on what? How are we ramping up this fast? Why not earlier? And then he says they are going to decide who gets tested not the doctors? That sounds like a massive ****ing tip-off they aren’t going to be close to five million.

They can’t do 1,000 this week. Five million next week? Lol.
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CNBC had someone from the Cleveland Clinic on this morning, he said now they can ramp up to 1000 a day starting next week.

This afternoon they had another huge clinic on that said they took the CDC system and the Euro system, combined the best parts, and can get results within hours not days.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
I didn’t think I’d be THIS right. Especially given what I’ve been reading he actually said.

Five million tests in one week? Based on what? How are we ramping up this fast? Why not earlier? And then he says they are going to decide who gets tested not the doctors? That sounds like a massive ****ing tip-off they aren’t going to be close to five million.

They can’t do 1,000 this week. Five million next week? Lol.
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Doesn’t matter. Stocks rallied, those mentioned in the presser went up exponentially. Republicans get to celebrate how great the private sector is going into the weekend.
 
aparch said:
CNBC had someone from the Cleveland Clinic on this morning, he said now they can ramp up to 1000 a day starting next week.

This afternoon they had another huge clinic on that said they took the CDC system and the Euro system, combined the best parts, and can get results within hours not days.
Click to expand...

This is what I need to see. Thanks for info. I have a ton of faith in our medical professionals. Ultimately I think the worse case scenario numbers won't be reached. With the national emergency declared now just lock Trump in a closet.
 
Re: PoTUS 45 LVXII: Pandemic Legacy Season 3

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Leadership in a crisis. <a href="https://t.co/kb6hwAOVLJ">pic.twitter.com/kb6hwAOVLJ</a></p>— Schooley (@Rschooley) <a href="https://twitter.com/Rschooley/status/1238559753770389504?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 13, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Re: PoTUS 45 LVXII: Pandemic Legacy Season 3

Ah yes, who can forget that famous Truman quote, "The buck stops somewhere over there."
 
Re: PoTUS 45 LVXII: Pandemic Legacy Season 3

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">There is, as they say, always a tweet (cc <a href="https://twitter.com/KevinMKruse?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@KevinMKruse</a>) <a href="https://t.co/V01bR7WJrK">https://t.co/V01bR7WJrK</a></p>— Jesse Hawken (@jessehawken) <a href="https://twitter.com/jessehawken/status/1238562243928829953?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 13, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Re: PoTUS 45 LVXII: Pandemic Legacy Season 3

Do you suppose if we challenged him with, "Obama never resigned!" we could trick him into quitting?
 
Re: PoTUS 45 LVXII: Pandemic Legacy Season 3

Oh good, now he’s bragging about the stock market rise in which he lied countless times to near the closing bell so that the real news would have to sit for 48 hours.
 
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