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POTUS 45.42: Who Needs Tax Increases? If You're Rich Just Write A Check.

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Re: POTUS 45.42: Who Needs Tax Increases? If You're Rich Just Write A Check.

Wisko McBadgerton said:
I had a conversation with Mrs. McBadgerton yesterday about Chinese tariffs. She works for a relatively small company (couple billion+ in sales) that mainly sources from China/Asia, to which she will be traveling again in a few weeks. Their Chinese vendors have been asked to absorb existing tariffs, and further, asked to absorb any future tariffs up to 25%. The Chinese expect currency manipulation to account for about 5% and the remaining 20% they have all, so far, agreed to absorb. So in these cases and under those conditions, American consumers are going to pay $0 more for Mrs. McB's products. Assuming her company's US sales grow, they will buy even more from China which will, of course, contribute to an increased trade deficit, however the US Treasury will be pocketing up to 25% on every transaction. At this level at least, and in this industry, it doesn't appear to be negatively affecting the US at all, but rather the Chinese will be financing cash into the US treasury. I was a bit surprised by that.
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Chinese factory workers make about $1.50 an day, and you go any lower and you're pretty much looking at children. Chinese companies will always tell you that currency, etc will allow them to absorb costs because they don't want American customers looking for international child labor violations.

Beyond that, remember how happy everyone was with the Iraq war 2 months in - 'boy, was that easy'. Today the Iraq tally appears to be closer to $2 trillion...and countless lives. With coal, steel and a vast array of other materials, costs on Chinese manufacturers, American distributors and we consumers are already real and will be incalculable as individual companies change course to some suboptimal strategy to manage the situation.
 
Re: POTUS 45.42: Who Needs Tax Increases? If You're Rich Just Write A Check.

Wisko McBadgerton said:
Shifting production to Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Korea, etc. is all good for us, good for them, and not good for China, even if we're still buying from some Chinese pass-throughs for the time being. The issue we want to avoid is inflationary consumer pricing. It doesn't seem clear at this point how much of that will materialize in the near term. That is not to say it won't become an issue, just that it's not clear when or how much, vs. how much and how soon China really feels the squeeze. It's just much less certain to me than it at first appeared to be.
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It is and it isnt. It isnt that simple. Price points change, costs change, regulations change. It isnt like they switched to Vietnam and everything is hunky dory. The last time this happened they took a bath switching to Vietnam but had to do it just to make the rent.

China wont feel the pinch any time soon if ever. As easy as it is for the US business to switch to other Asian Countries it is just as easy an in many ways cheaper for them to do so.

The only ones feeling the pinch are workers here. Consumers wont deal with it for a while, most likely when the economy corrects and the recession hits. This was not a problem that needed fixing any time soon and the cost benefit analysis of it doesnt add up.
 
Re: POTUS 45.42: Who Needs Tax Increases? If You're Rich Just Write A Check.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-cards="hidden" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Trump claims U.S. towns are celebrating liberation from immigrants like "World War II movies" <a href="https://t.co/7m9SPgnlmj">https://t.co/7m9SPgnlmj</a> <a href="https://t.co/kdOKJBZRpz">pic.twitter.com/kdOKJBZRpz</a></p>— Newsweek (@Newsweek) <a href="https://twitter.com/Newsweek/status/1055854091602182144?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 26, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Re: POTUS 45.42: Who Needs Tax Increases? If You're Rich Just Write A Check.

Wisko McBadgerton said:
Shifting production to Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Korea, etc. is all good for us, good for them, and not good for China, even if we're still buying from some Chinese pass-throughs for the time being. The issue we want to avoid is inflationary consumer pricing. It doesn't seem clear at this point how much of that will materialize in the near term. That is not to say it won't become an issue, just that it's not clear when or how much, vs. how much and how soon China really feels the squeeze. It's just much less certain to me than it at first appeared to be.
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Wrong. Its bad for us.

When not required for consumer protection, we want a very free US marketplace - that's been the secret behind the US economy. Why would we impose costly, sub optimal trade regulations on companies for Trump's political reasons?
 
Re: POTUS 45.42: Who Needs Tax Increases? If You're Rich Just Write A Check.

Handyman said:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-cards="hidden" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Trump claims U.S. towns are celebrating liberation from immigrants like "World War II movies" <a href="https://t.co/7m9SPgnlmj">https://t.co/7m9SPgnlmj</a> <a href="https://t.co/kdOKJBZRpz">pic.twitter.com/kdOKJBZRpz</a></p>— Newsweek (@Newsweek) <a href="https://twitter.com/Newsweek/status/1055854091602182144?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 26, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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I assume he's thinking of the Sudetenland.
 
Re: POTUS 45.42: Who Needs Tax Increases? If You're Rich Just Write A Check.

So, no surprise a Trump Humper is sending out bombs to the Chump's enemies. Only thing left is for Scooby to come out here and post how this is going to help the GOP pick up 30 seats in the House and 10 in the Senate.
 
Re: POTUS 45.42: Who Needs Tax Increases? If You're Rich Just Write A Check.

Rover said:
So, no surprise a Trump Humper is sending out bombs to the Chump's enemies. Only thing left is for Scooby to come out here and post how this is going to help the GOP pick up 30 seats in the House and 10 in the Senate.
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I have no idea what effect it will have either way.
 
Re: POTUS 45.42: Who Needs Tax Increases? If You're Rich Just Write A Check.

Joe Scarborough didnt have an opinion on it? ;)

(its a joke)
 
Re: POTUS 45.42: Who Needs Tax Increases? If You're Rich Just Write A Check.

Handyman said:
Joe Scarborough didnt have an opinion on it? ;)

(its a joke)
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To be honest I don't like Joe very much. His show is great but it's others (the guests they get) that carry it. Mika doesn't do much for me either.
 
Re: POTUS 45.42: Who Needs Tax Increases? If You're Rich Just Write A Check.

5mn_Major said:
Chinese factory workers make about $1.50 an day, and you go any lower and you're pretty much looking at children. Chinese companies will always tell you that currency, etc will allow them to absorb costs because they don't want American customers looking for international child labor violations.

Beyond that, remember how happy everyone was with the Iraq war 2 months in - 'boy, was that easy'. Today the Iraq tally appears to be closer to $2 trillion...and countless lives. With coal, steel and a vast array of other materials, costs on Chinese manufacturers, American distributors and we consumers are already real and will be incalculable as individual companies change course to some suboptimal strategy to manage the situation.
Click to expand...


You have no idea what you're talking about in the first part of this at all. Average Chinese factory worker makes close to $30/day, compared to about $9 in Vietnam. Chinese companies don't just "tell you" stuff. This is real business with contracts and inspections and regulations and consequences. There is no US company of any significance at all doing business in China without US inspectors regularly checking on factories and labor conditions and making sure they meet minimum requirements. I've been to several Chinese factories myself and Mrs. McB has probably been to hundreds.

And what does the Iraq war have to do with trade in China? Remember when Miami was up by 2 with 2 minutes to play over BU in the National Championship game? Yeah? WELL- LOOK HOW THAT TURNED OUT!?!?!
 
Re: POTUS 45.42: Who Needs Tax Increases? If You're Rich Just Write A Check.

Rover said:
So, no surprise a Trump Humper is sending out bombs to the Chump's enemies.
Click to expand...

Do card carrying Trump Humpers get an option which Trump to hump?
 
Re: POTUS 45.42: Who Needs Tax Increases? If You're Rich Just Write A Check.

Handyman said:
It is and it isnt. It isnt that simple. Price points change, costs change, regulations change. It isnt like they switched to Vietnam and everything is hunky dory. The last time this happened they took a bath switching to Vietnam but had to do it just to make the rent.

China wont feel the pinch any time soon if ever. As easy as it is for the US business to switch to other Asian Countries it is just as easy an in many ways cheaper for them to do so.

The only ones feeling the pinch are workers here. Consumers wont deal with it for a while, most likely when the economy corrects and the recession hits. This was not a problem that needed fixing any time soon and the cost benefit analysis of it doesnt add up.
Click to expand...

If China really never feels the pinch, then perhaps they can afford the tariffs? If so, then isn't it status quo but with the US treasury getting a boost?

The issue with moving supply chain out of China is capacity. Everyone can't shift tomorrow and building capacity is costly. But once it's built in Vietnam or Indonesia, it will generate better returns for the next decade or two, and some, (but not all) Chinese middleman can pound sand. Whether tarriffs stay or go, I'd say a really good investment right now is building any sort of labor intensive factory in Vietnam.
 
Re: POTUS 45.42: Who Needs Tax Increases? If You're Rich Just Write A Check.

burd said:
Do card carrying Trump Humpers get an option which Trump to hump?
Click to expand...

I think you have to offer to hump Trump first, and if you can't write a big enough check he passes you off to one of his kids.

Flaggy, Brent, Sic, etc - you're fans of the man. Does that sound about right? :D
 
Re: POTUS 45.42: Who Needs Tax Increases? If You're Rich Just Write A Check.

French Rage said:
I like he will retweet the same image 50 times in a row. You know, to really make the point.
Click to expand...

I wish I could remember the name of the politician who repeats himself over and over. Must not be important.
 
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