Re: Patty Kaz 2012 - Top Three
While every argument in favor of JLam is true, it's not a definitive case for JLam. It just means we have an apples-to-oranges kind of comparison to resolve. It's not straightforward to evaluate how each would do with each other's teammates.
Looking at stats like ppg against top teams has predictive value in the voting outcome, not because voters look directly at these numbers -- it's because a lot of coaches vote by looking both at total stats to narrow the field, and then thinking, which of these players was the greatest challenge for me to shut down. Now sure, the challenge of shutting down Decker is amplified by the strength of her teammates, but the fact she won WCHA POTY tells me the opposing coaches thought she was a greater challenge than the Lams, controlling for the strength of teammates. Now I agree northhockey has a good point that JLam could've won this award with less success than Decker against the top teams -- because you need to consider JLams academics and Decker's talented teammates -- but I expect Decker's advantages are too large for JLam to overcome.
The kind of success Decker had against the best teams isn't inevitable. There have been plenty of elite players with elite linemates who simply weren't as successful. I look back at 06-07 for example, which is usually regarded as one of the toughest Kaz decisions. Sara Bauer was almost totally shut down by UMD during the regular season. Julie Chu was more successful than Bauer against top opponents (at least before the postseason), and that's a big part of why she won -- she had more total points and more consistency. But neither had success anywhere close to Decker & Prevost this year. So that's one reason I don't believe it's inevitable JLam would've been just as successful as Decker if the two were to swap places.
While every argument in favor of JLam is true, it's not a definitive case for JLam. It just means we have an apples-to-oranges kind of comparison to resolve. It's not straightforward to evaluate how each would do with each other's teammates.
Looking at stats like ppg against top teams has predictive value in the voting outcome, not because voters look directly at these numbers -- it's because a lot of coaches vote by looking both at total stats to narrow the field, and then thinking, which of these players was the greatest challenge for me to shut down. Now sure, the challenge of shutting down Decker is amplified by the strength of her teammates, but the fact she won WCHA POTY tells me the opposing coaches thought she was a greater challenge than the Lams, controlling for the strength of teammates. Now I agree northhockey has a good point that JLam could've won this award with less success than Decker against the top teams -- because you need to consider JLams academics and Decker's talented teammates -- but I expect Decker's advantages are too large for JLam to overcome.
The kind of success Decker had against the best teams isn't inevitable. There have been plenty of elite players with elite linemates who simply weren't as successful. I look back at 06-07 for example, which is usually regarded as one of the toughest Kaz decisions. Sara Bauer was almost totally shut down by UMD during the regular season. Julie Chu was more successful than Bauer against top opponents (at least before the postseason), and that's a big part of why she won -- she had more total points and more consistency. But neither had success anywhere close to Decker & Prevost this year. So that's one reason I don't believe it's inevitable JLam would've been just as successful as Decker if the two were to swap places.
