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First, a little history. Thanks to the Build Your Own Rankings Calculator we now have 10 years of Pairwise data to study. In that time there have been 19 teams that qualified thanks to the autobid and 141 who qualified by being ranked high enough (autobid or not) to make the NCAA tournament. Of the 141 teams, 102 (72.3%) that qualified as of the January 1 PWR would have made the eventual field. For teams ranked in the top 8 that percentage gets better. 35 of the 40 (87.5%) teams that were ranked 1-4 in the January 1 PWR have made the tournament. 30 of the 40 (75%) of teams ranked 5-8 made it. 25 of the 40 (62.5%) of teams ranked 9-12 qualified. In 2011 all of the top 12 teams in the January 1 PWR qualified. Last year saw the first #1 team (Ohio State) fall all the way out of the tournament. If your team doesn't appear below, take heart. In four of the last six years teams that were not in the top 25 of the PWR on January 1 earned at-large berths in the tournament. Last year, Union came from #25 to win the ECAC, earn a #1 seed and advance to the Frozen Four.
30 teams fell out of the NCAA tournament that were ranked 1-12 in the New Year PWR. 10 of those teams came from the WCHA, including four by Colorado College. The futility at CC is even more staggering when you consider they fell from being a 1-seed once and a 2-seed twice. A feat that flies in the face of all odds. Teams that have fallen out twice include Denver, Minnesota-Duluth, Michigan State, Ohio State, Dartmouth and Vermont. In addition to the 10 times WCHA teams have fallen out of contention, eight have come from the CCHA, seven from Hockey East and four from the ECAC. When Bemidji State was part of the CHA they fell out of the tournament as well.
With all that in mind, here is the January 1 Pairwise:
1 Boston Coll(HE)
2 Quinnipiac(EC)
3 New Hampshire(HE)
4 Dartmouth(EC)
5 Notre Dame(CC)
6 Boston Univ(HE)
7 Minnesota (WC)
8 North Dakota (WC)
9 Miami (CC)
10 Yale (EC)
11 Robert Morris (AH)
12 Cornell (EC)
13 Denver U (WC)
14 Western Mich (CC)
15 Union (EC)
Autobid: Niagara
That gives us
Even though the ECAC has five teams in the tournament, the Quinnipiac-Union game can be changed. An easy swap is to send them to Manchester for Western Michigan. We can further boost attendance in both Providence and Toledo by switching Yale and Miami. The only thing that might save attendance in Grand Rapids is if Michigan has a great second half and snags a bid. Attendance in Manchester would be fine with both UNH and BU there.
The new brackets:
The TUC line:
25 Ohio*State 0.5049
26 CO*College 0.5029
---
27 Vermont 0.4990
28 RPI 0.4975
29 Ferris*State 0.4964
30 teams fell out of the NCAA tournament that were ranked 1-12 in the New Year PWR. 10 of those teams came from the WCHA, including four by Colorado College. The futility at CC is even more staggering when you consider they fell from being a 1-seed once and a 2-seed twice. A feat that flies in the face of all odds. Teams that have fallen out twice include Denver, Minnesota-Duluth, Michigan State, Ohio State, Dartmouth and Vermont. In addition to the 10 times WCHA teams have fallen out of contention, eight have come from the CCHA, seven from Hockey East and four from the ECAC. When Bemidji State was part of the CHA they fell out of the tournament as well.
With all that in mind, here is the January 1 Pairwise:
1 Boston Coll(HE)
2 Quinnipiac(EC)
3 New Hampshire(HE)
4 Dartmouth(EC)
5 Notre Dame(CC)
6 Boston Univ(HE)
7 Minnesota (WC)
8 North Dakota (WC)
9 Miami (CC)
10 Yale (EC)
11 Robert Morris (AH)
12 Cornell (EC)
13 Denver U (WC)
14 Western Mich (CC)
15 Union (EC)
Autobid: Niagara
That gives us
Code:
[B]Manchester (UNH) Providence (Brown) Toledo (BGSU) Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
New Hamp Boston C Quinnipiac Dartmouth
Boston U North Dakota Minnesota Notre Dame
Robert Morris Miami Yale Cornell
Western Mich Niagara Union DenverEven though the ECAC has five teams in the tournament, the Quinnipiac-Union game can be changed. An easy swap is to send them to Manchester for Western Michigan. We can further boost attendance in both Providence and Toledo by switching Yale and Miami. The only thing that might save attendance in Grand Rapids is if Michigan has a great second half and snags a bid. Attendance in Manchester would be fine with both UNH and BU there.
The new brackets:
Code:
[B]Manchester (UNH) Providence (Brown) Toledo (BGSU) Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
New Hamp Boston C Quinnipiac Dartmouth
Boston U North Dakota Minnesota Notre Dame
Robert Morris Yale Miami Cornell
Union Niagara Western Mich DenverThe TUC line:
25 Ohio*State 0.5049
26 CO*College 0.5029
---
27 Vermont 0.4990
28 RPI 0.4975
29 Ferris*State 0.4964
