Ohio State Buckeyes 2021-2022 ... Destination: Happy Valley

[robertearle]

"The other way that this could have been more fair with OSU playing one game fewer is if the points percentage was calculated by each opponent and summed. Both OSU and UM would then earn 100% of the points versus SCSU in that hypothetical situation and would be tied overall, even though OSU had one fewer game against that opponent."

That's actually very clever. Here's to hoping that game cancellations are a non-issue in 2022-23. But the powers-that-be should add this idea to their arsenal, just in case.

Again, this assume that there will be at least one game played between each pair of opponents. When the WCHA conference people had to go to 'points percentage' last year and again this year because of COVID, they had no way of knowing whether 'at least one game played' would necessarily be the case. It has turned out to be the case both years, but they didn't know that at the time.

(I also don't come up with "would be tied overall", though all the tie games that Minn has played, I could have messed it up. If both teams win out, I get OSU at 5.75 'points percentage', and Minn at 5.667. Minn is some better vs Duluth and Wisconsin, while OSU is some better vs Mankato, and head-to-head.)

 

[pgb-ohio]

The issue is more complicated on the SCSU side, because the Huskies were also needing to make up a postponed series versus UMD. They will have the second of those make-up games next week. Obviously, there is a "slightly" more manageable commute to consider between St. Cloud and Duluth.

Yes. And all the more reason why making up 100% of the cancelled games wasn't really viable, and may not have even been requested.

 

[ARM]

(I also don't come up with "would be tied overall", though all the tie games that Minn has played, I could have messed it up. If both teams win out, I get OSU at 5.75 'points percentage', and Minn at 5.667. Minn is some better vs Duluth and Wisconsin, while OSU is some better vs Mankato, and head-to-head.)

The would-be-tied scenario is for a model that assumes UM gains one point over OSU along the way; if OSU runs the table, UM doesn't catch the Buckeyes no matter what system is used (well, not straight points, but I think we all agree there). IMO, that is the case of primary interest, because that is where the two teams would have been tied on points had each played all 28 games, and OSU completed its sweep of SCSU. And using basic points percentage, which is attempting to overcome that bit of unfairness, doesn't go quite far enough.

Another thing they could have done would have been to double the points at stake for single-game series. If you only play one of two games at a site, that single game could be worth six points rather than three. Obviously, this isn't a rule change that can be made after the fact.

 

[pgb-ohio]

Again, this assume that there will be at least one game played between each pair of opponents. When the WCHA conference people had to go to 'points percentage' last year and again this year because of COVID, they had no way of knowing whether 'at least one game played' would necessarily be the case. It has turned out to be the case both years, but they didn't know that at the time.

Although this year, when a final decision was made that particular games would never be made up, we knew that everyone had played head-to-head, correct? Meaning ARM's method could have been used in this year's scenario, had it been included in the original rule as an option. (available only if every team has, in fact, played)

Drafting a rule to cover multiple scenarios can be a headache. But it's not uncommon for tie breaking rules to have multiple steps. (If X, then Procedure #1; If Not X, then Continue to Procedure #2, and so on)

(I also don't come up with "would be tied overall", though all the tie games that Minn has played, I could have messed it up. If both teams win out, I get OSU at 5.75 'points percentage', and Minn at 5.667. Minn is some better vs Duluth and Wisconsin, while OSU is some better vs Mankato, and head-to-head.)

I'll look forward to your updates as the next two weeks play out. Thanks in advance!

 

[robertearle]

Although this year, when a final decision was made that particular games would never be made up, we knew that everyone had played head-to-head, correct? Meaning ARM's method could have been used in this year's scenario, had it been included in the original rule as an option. (available only if every team has, in fact, played)

In fact, no.

The first games cancelled were Duluth vs St Cloud on the weekend of Jan 6th. They only played their first game against one another on Feb 1st, and have yet to play a seond game.

 

[pgb-ohio]

Another thing they could have done would have been to double the points at stake for single-game series. If you only play one of two games at a site, that single game could be worth six points rather than three. Obviously, this isn't a rule change that can be made after the fact.

This occurred to me immediately after the single make-up game was announced. Double or nothing would make that single game mighty interesting, that's for sure.

I personally experienced this once in intramural sports. Junior High Flag Football, to be exact. I was fortunate enough to be part of a homeroom that was on track to win the championship. The season was a double round robin. For some long forgotten -- but legitimate -- reason, one of our games with a "bottom feeder" team was postponed. Finding a make-up date was proving to be impossible; but the other scheduled game was still to be played. As the season finale. So we agreed to the double or nothing format.

Interesting twist: The opposing homeroom had a talented player who usually couldn't be bothered to show up. But he sure showed up for the double or nothing game, making it a much closer match-up.

In the end, we bagged the two wins by a score of 14-12. We won the championship because we were able to convert our extra points.

Now you'd be hard pressed to come up with a less significant sporting event. But my point is that double or nothing can really change the character of a game.

 

[ARM]

When you get a case where some teams never play, it isn't possible to be 100% fair, because now the degree of difficulty isn't the same. I realize it is never equal in the case of the H2H percentage, but that's the nature of competition. But even if two teams never play, you can make it more fair than it is now. One option would be to compute an average points percentage per opponent, given you now can't sum them. Or you can treat it like COp does for the PWR and confine it to the teams that both played; each comparison has its own set of teams included in the domain. If everyone plays everyone, there are seven, but you can still make a comparison if there are only six, five, or whatever.

 

[ARM]

Now you'd be hard pressed to come up with a less significant sporting event.

I sometimes think those are actually the most significant. Youth sports are where we learn to try our best for outcomes, to succeed and fail, and deal as best we're able with both results. It is only when we're adults that we lose all perspective and obsess about whether someone else wins or loses what is still merely a game.

 

[pgb-ohio]

In fact, no.

The first games cancelled were Duluth vs St Cloud on the weekend of Jan 6th. They only played their first game against one another on Feb 1st, and have yet to play a seond game.

OK, I didn't realize that this pair of teams had played zero games through January. The weekend of January 6th must have still been in the first half for those two clubs.

But I'm not sure that really changes my point on a multi-step rule. Had UMD & SCSU really gone the entire season without playing, then the conditions of Procedure #1 aren't satisfied, and you'd move on to Procedure #2.

 

[FiveHoleFrenzy]

The Muzzinator...What the heck strategy was that? I suppose she was all in on winning but that is a fail.

 

[Offsides Guy]

The Muzzinator...What the heck strategy was that. I suppose she was all in but that is a fail.

Muzz showed no respect for Bemidji by pulling the goalie in a tie game and karma bit her in the a$$. I love it!

 

[robertearle]

So I get home from the Badger game, where they had announced that Bemidji was up 2-1 in the third, so I'm anxious to pull up the box score and see how it ended up.

And I see Bemidji empty net goal at 20:00?!?!?

What The F????

I just watched the end on BTNPlus. I guess if Muzzy is assuming Minnesota isn't going to give up any more standings points this year (despite the fact that they were trailing very late in the second period today), then pulling the goalie is the desperation move to get the three points necessary to win the conference. Second place by one point or three is still second place. (Bulletin board material for Wisconsin, BTW)

But Holy Cow!! That is quite the bold move. And by "bold", I mean pretty effing questionable.

 

[Offsides Guy]

I guess if Muzzy is assuming Minnesota isn't going to give up any more standings points this year (despite the fact that they were trailing very late in the second period today), then pulling the goalie is the desperation move to get the three points necessary to win the conference. Second place by one point or three is still second place. (Bulletin board material for Wisconsin, BTW)

Very good point. Likely more that then disrespecting BSU.

 

[robertearle]

Very good point. Likely more that then disrespecting BSU.

I guess that's what she was thinking. But that will be a really interesting post-game press 'availability', won't it? LOL

 

[ARM]

Mark Johnson did something similar versus UM in a tie game in OT with ~ 30 second to go in 2009, with two more weekends remaining in the season. The Gophers were a point ahead in the standings, and he assumed that both teams would win out. The Badgers were able to control the puck, but didn't score. The message was that the WCHA season title matters to these teams, and they will risk those mythical PairWise points to attempt to get it.

 

[osualum86]

Muzz showed no respect for Bemidji by pulling the goalie in a tie game and karma bit her in the ***. I love it!

It had nothing to do with a lack of respect and everything to do with trying to win a regular season title. Nadine Muzerall preaches respect for our opponents. Her pulling the goalie had nothing to do with a lack of respect for Bemidji. Had the game gone into OT, we would have only gotten two points for the win instead of three. Our only chance to win the regular season title was to win out in regulation.

Congratulations to the Minnesota Gophers for winning the WCHA Regular Season Title.

As others have alluded to, Bemidji State defeated Ohio State earlier tonight by a final score of 3-2 with an empty net goal at the buzzer after Ohio State had pulled goaltender Amanda Thiele. Ohio State opened the scoring on a first period goal from Gabby Rosenthal to take a 1-0 lead into the first intermission. Bemidji State's Graysen Myers scored the only goal of the second period and the teams went into the second intermission tied at 1-1. The Beavers got a goal from Claudia Verkerke in the third period to take 2-1 lead. The Buckeyes answered late in the third period on a goal from Clair DeGeorge to tie it at 2-2. With less than a minute to go in the game, Coach Muzerall opted to pull the goalie in an attempt to win the game in regulation and keep Ohio State's regular season title hopes alive. Anything less than regulation wins in Ohio State's remaining games would all but eliminate the Buckeyes' hopes of winning the regular season title. It was a risk, and it ended up backfiring on Ohio State as Bemidji's Paige Beebe scored an empty net goal at the buzzer to win it for the Beavers. Ohio State outshot the Beavers 53-16. Buckeye netminder Amanda Thiele stopped 13 of the 15 shots she faced. Beaver backstop Kerigan Dowhy stopped 51 of the 53 shots she faced to get the win. The two teams are back at it tomorrow at 4:00 pm EST.

 

[ARM]

Congratulations to the Minnesota Gophers for winning the WCHA Regular Season Title.

Don't do that. The Huskies and Tommies deserve more respect.

 

[osualum86]

I watched the end on BTNPlus. I guess if Muzzy is assuming Minnesota isn't going to give up any more standings points this year (despite the fact that they were trailing very late in the second period today), then pulling the goalie is the desperation move to get the three points necessary to win the conference. Second place by one point or three is still second place. (Bulletin board material for Wisconsin, BTW)

Wisconsin did the same thing against us a few years ago in an attempt to win a regular season title. And just curious, how is that bulletin board material for Wisconsin? We had to win tonight in regulation to give ourselves a chance to win the regular season title. Not sure how or why that's bulletin board material for Wisconsin.

 

[osualum86]

Don't do that. The Huskies and Tommies deserve more respect.

Yeah, I know. Sorry to the Huskies and Tommies! I am just bummed because I wanted to see this team win the regular season title as it carries more weight in the postseason than winning the WCHA Final Faceoff. That was crystal clear two years ago when we won the WCHA Final Faceoff and the selection committee was going to send us to Ridder to play the Gophers on the road. I just hope we didn't blow a home quarterfinal with the loss tonight.

 

[Offsides Guy]

It had nothing to do with a lack of respect and everything to do with trying to win a regular season title. Nadine Muzerall preaches respect for our opponents. Her pulling the goalie had nothing to do with a lack of respect for Bemidji. Had the game gone into OT, we would have only gotten two points for the win instead of three. Our only chance to win the regular season title was to win out in regulation.

Yep, I stand corrected.