Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

[robertearle]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

Inaccurate. As I said above, a loss is a loss when it comes to calculating RPI. KRACH works the way you're thinking; RPI does not.

A loss is a loss when it comes to the team's own won-loss record component to the RPI. But does it not also improve the "opponent's won-loss record" component if the loss is to a good team, as opposed to a bad team? Losing to Wisconsin is the same as losing to Mankato with regard to the first component of RPI, but very different with regard to the second component. No?

 

[Eeyore]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

A loss is a loss when it comes to the team's own won-loss record component to the RPI. But does it not also improve the "opponent's won-loss record" component if the loss is to a good team, as opposed to a bad team? Losing to Wisconsin is the same as losing to Mankato with regard to the first component of RPI, but very different with regard to the second component. No?

All true, but the loss just counts as a loss. In the same way that a win over a bad team can hurt your RPI, a loss to a good one can help it, but if you're a good team, the benefit to your OWP won't outweigh the cost to your own winning percentage.

 

[pgb-ohio]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

Guys I appreciate the replies. And for the most part, I do follow the logic of your carefully written responses.

When asking posters to "Translate Pairwise Into English" I hoping for a description of key points and most probable scenarios. Comprehensive versions, which attempt to cover all eventualities, tend to obscure things for the average fan in stands. I do agree that the actual decision-makers should fully grasp the comprehensive version. Eeyore is correct to object when that's not the case.

On the fan side, I take it the bottom line is that further simplification is hopelessly misleading, and therefore counterproductive. I can respect that response.

 

[KTDC]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

Guys I appreciate the replies. And for the most part, I do follow the logic of your carefully written responses.

When asking posters to "Translate Pairwise Into English" I hoping for a description of key points and most probable scenarios. Comprehensive versions, which attempt to cover all eventualities, tend to obscure things for the average fan in stands. I do agree that the actual decision-makers should fully grasp the comprehensive version. Eeyore is correct to object when that's not the case.

On the fan side, I take it the bottom line is that further simplification is hopelessly misleading, and therefore counterproductive. I can respect that response.

I believe you originally underestimated the value of beating Wisconsin. Even though you will not pass them in the pairwise, the Quality Win Bonus you would get from beating the Badgers would be significant. However...lol.....I write this based only on my impression as an average fan in the stands who is inviting someone with more expertise to let us know the QWB impact would really not be significant.

Good luck vs Robert Morris, I shall be rooting for you guys!

 

[pgb-ohio]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

I believe you originally underestimated the value of beating Wisconsin.

Actually, I wasn't estimating at all. I was just trying to understand what robertearle was saying, by asking questions. In his initial comment, the OSU/UW series didn't even qualify as "interesting." But on further review, that characterization was directed specifically at the H2H component, not the Pairwise as a whole.

Even though you will not pass them in the pairwise, the Quality Win Bonus you would get from beating the Badgers would be significant. However...lol.....I write this based only on my impression as an average fan in the stands who is inviting someone with more expertise to let us know the QWB impact would really not be significant.

This is exactly the kind of confusion I was hoping the experts would address. Just what is the absolute value of the QWB in relation to the other factors? Is it a big enough prize to cause changes in the rankings? Or is it dwarfed by the other factors, such that it rarely makes any difference?

Related questions: Is the QWB awarded on a sliding scale? Meaning that beating the top ranked team yields the biggest payoff? Or is it just a dichotomous variable -- meaning there's one bonus value, and you either earn it or you don't?

I don't know the answer to any of those questions, and wish I did.

Good luck vs Robert Morris, I shall be rooting for you guys!

Appreciate that. I also root for the conference in interleague play, for both selfish and altruistic reasons.

 

[robertearle]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

In his initial comment, the OSU/UW series didn't even qualify as "interesting." But on further review, that characterization was directed specifically at the H2H component, not the Pairwise as a whole.

What I said was the only two Pairwise comparisons involving Ohio State that may be decided on anything other than "who has the better RPI?" are Robert Morris and and Minnesota (because those have the third comparison component - head-to-head - necessary to 'overcome' a better RPI).

In the case of Wisconsin: yes, there is head-to-head, and I guess it is possible that Ohio State could win both remaining games AND beat UW in the WCHA tournament such that the UW-vs-OSU Pairwise comparison gets 'interesting'. I will come back and look more closely at it when that day arrives.

Just what is the absolute value of the QWB in relation to the other factors? Is it a big enough prize to cause changes in the rankings? Or is it dwarfed by the other factors, such that it rarely makes any difference?

Related questions: Is the QWB awarded on a sliding scale? Meaning that beating the top ranked team yields the biggest payoff? Or is it just a dichotomous variable -- meaning there's one bonus value, and you either earn it or you don't?

From what Grant wrote up two years ago, which in turn quotes from the NCAA Women's hockey manual; I think it is all still valid.

"The [Quality Win Bonus] scale for the women starts at a .060 RPI bonus for a win against #1 and descends .005 per team, ending in a .005 bonus for a win against #12."

With that, let's look at Ohio State: Right now (Thursday PM) their QWB is shown as being .0034. They have a win and a tie (which equals a half-win) over the current #5, Minnesota, and a win over current #10 Robert Morris (with those rankings reflecting the "adjusted RPI", before any QWB has been added in) The win over Minnesota is worth .04, the 'half-win' is worth .02, and the win over #10 Robert Morris is worth .015. That totals up to 0.75, which is then divided by the number of games played to date, 22 for OSU. .075 divided by 22 equals .0034.

OSU's "adjusted RPI" of .5577 has .0034 added to it, bringing it to .5611.

If you look at the current RPI rankings, you'll see that before QWBs are added, Providence in ranked ahead of Cornell and OSU, and Robert Morris is ahead of St Lawrence. But when the QWBs are added in, Providence dropped behind Cornall and OSU, and St Lawrence passes Robert Morris. Yes, QWB can most certainly make a difference in the RPI ranks, and in turn who wins a particular Pairwise compariosn, and even to the point of who does and does not get into the Tournament.

(If you click on the column headers of the 'RPI page, you can re-sort the table to that particular column's values.)

Note, of course, that QWBs re-calculated every week, based on new RPI values and rankings. If Minnesota moves up in the 'Adjusted RPI' ranking, OSU's QWB for beating them and tying them increases (although the 'games played' divisor also gets bigger with every game OSU plays). And wins over teams can lose their QWB value, if the team drops out of the top twelve. For example, the OSU win over Robert Morris currently has QWB value; if OSU were to sweep RMU this weekend, and RMU dropped out of the top twelve, any QWB for any win over RMU would disappear. Even if RMU only drops from #10 to #11 or 12, the QWB decreases.

Grant's column from two years ago:
https://www.bcinterruption.com/bost...bc-eagles-minnesota-gophers-wisconsin-badgers

 

[osualum86]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

I almost feel bad interrupting this conversation about the pairwise and rpi because I have found it interesting and am learning from all the great information, but the Buckeyes had a big game earlier tonight vs top ten-ranked Robert Morris. Ohio State took game one earlier tonight in dominating fashion by a final score of 5-0. The shots on goal were close with Ohio State winning the SOG battle 38-34. The Bucks were actually outshooting the Colonials 27-15 after two periods when they were building a 4-0 lead, then Robert Morris made a push in the third period and outshot the Bucks 19-11 in that period. Kassidy Sauve earned another shutout with a 34-save performance. Robert Morris used two different goalies. Elijah Milne-Price started for RMU and earned 11 saves on 15 shots. She was relieved by Lauren Bailey, who stopped 22 of the 23 shots she faced. The Buckeye goals were scored by Rebecca Freiburger, Tatum Skaggs (2), Emma Maltais, and Maddy Field. One thing that I noticed right away was that Charly Dahlquist was back centering a line with Emma Maltais and Tatum Skaggs, and they were lethal tonight, accounting for three of the five Buckeye goals. That line stood out, but it was a team effort as eleven different Buckeyes pointed tonight. Ohio State scored on one of their four power plays and the Colonials were scoreless on their three power plays. Coach Nadine was happy with the performance and said, “I was really hard on the team this week because of how we played last Friday, I know we’re better than that. They responded and played really well tonight. As a coach, you can have a ton of ideas, but if the team doesn’t execute you’ll get nowhere. We executed tonight in every way.” That quote was from the recap on ohiostatebuckeyes.com. The two teams are back at it tomorrow at 3:07 pm, and as good as tonight's performance was by the Buckeyes, I will be interested in seeing if they can complete the sweep tomorrow. Robert Morris will come out determined to show that they are a better team than what they showed tonight. Ohio State needs to be prepared for that and bring their A game. Hopefully the road conditions are better for travel tomorrow. Hats off to the 200 folks who braved the elements to support these teams tonight!

 

[robertearle]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

I almost feel bad interrupting this conversation about the pairwise and rpi because I have found it interesting and am learning from all the great information...

I think it can be instructive in getting a feel for RPI and the rankings to look closely at what a 'set' of game outcomes can have. Yesterday's game outcomes ended up moving Ohio State past Cornell in RPI (and I think in the Pairwise, but I didn't have that written down).

Going into Friday, Cornell had a slim .0002 lead over Ohio State in the raw RPI and 'adjusted RPI'. Cornell's win over Dartmouth helped their 'Adjusted RPI' less than the OSU win (probably because RMU had a better winning percentage than Dartmouth, so the "opponent's won-loss" segment of the RPI calculation went up more for OSU than for Cornell); OSU's 'adjusted RPI' went up by .0050, while Cornell's went up only .0006. Beating a pretty good team helps more than beating a not-so-good team. OSU's QWB did go down a bit, from .0034 to .0030, because Robert Morris dropped from #10 to #11, and because the 'games played' divisor went up by one game. (Though Minnesota lost, and their RPI took a big hit - down .0130 - they stayed at #5 in the RPI, so their 'contribution' to OSU's QWB stayed pretty much the same). Cornell's QWB dropped more - from .0081 to .0056 - because even though Colgate went up in the RPI rankings, both St Lawrence and Providence dropped in RPI rankings.


Overall, that meant OSU's "QWB adjusted RPI" went from .5611 to .5657, while Cornell went from .5660 to .5640. That change moved OSU past Cornell Cornell in RPI ranking, and (must have) flipped the Pairwise comparison of the two teams.


(Adding one more note on how RPI can work: Wisconsin didn't even play, and their 'adjusted RPI' dropped .0023, while their QWB went up by .0009. Science!)

 

[pgb-ohio]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

Adding one more note on how RPI can work: Wisconsin didn't even play, and their 'adjusted RPI' dropped .0023, while their QWB went up by .0009. Science!

You're Blinding Us With Science! More please.

But do take some time for the actual games. Last night the Buckeyes certainly rocked the Ice Rink. Read about the Rock Stars on the WCHA Thread.

 

[osualum86]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

Pgb, I'll be heading over to check out the three stars! So, I am way late on this, but Ohio State completed the sweep yesterday afternoon by a final score of 5-2. This one was completely different than yesterday's, though. The thing that will stick out with anyone who checks out the box score is that the Colonials dominated the shots on goal today ... 46 to 21. The Buckeyes came out just fine with a 3-1 lead at the end of the first period and a 10-9 advantage in SOG. RMU's first period goal was a short-hander and it seemed to spark the Colonials as they came out and dominated the second period. Robert Morris outshot Ohio State 19-4 in the second period and added another goal to make the game really interesting. That continued halfway into the third period where RMU outshot the Bucks 18-7. Unfortunately for Robert Morris, Kassidy Sauve was, well, Kassidy Sauve, and the Colonials could not get another goal by her. Ohio State found the back of the net two more times in the third period to put it out of reach and complete the sweep. Kassidy Sauve stopped 44 of the 46 Robert Morris shots. RMU goaltender Lauren Bailey stopped 16 of the 21 shots she faced. RMU's goals were scored by Kirsten Welsh and Jessica Gazzola. Ohio State's goals were scored by Charly Dahlquist (2), Rebecca Freiburger, Emma Maltais, and Jincy Dunne. The first line of Charly Dahlquist, Emma Maltais, and Tatum Skaggs continues to sizzle as the trio combined for eight points on three goals and five assists. The Buckeyes will remain on home ice to take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers next weekend. This will be a big series in the WCHA standings as the Buckeyes and Gophers are battling for second place. Right now Minnesota is ahead of Ohio State 32 pts to 31 pts, but the Buckeyes have two games in hand on the Gophers. These games will have pairwise implications as well since both are ranked in the top ten. The Colonials will head to Rochester, NY, for a pair of games with RIT.

 

[pgb-ohio]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

Hungry for more 3 Stars? Game for another write-up? See The WCHA thread.

 

[KTDC]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

���� We're heading for a SHOWDOWN!����

Way to take care of business this weekend. One would expect the Buckeyes and Gophers both to be licking their chops heading into this series. I hope the Gopher team that shows up is more like the one that played yesterday, than Friday's team, which was very disappointing.

I bought my month's worth of College Sports Live yesterday and I look forward to tuning in to the streams

pgb and osualum86 are you attending the games this weekend?

 

[BigFan]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

Nice to see the "Straw" ( Maltais) back in the lineup. Coach may have been hard on the gals last week but nothing beats having the leading scorer in the WCHA back in your lineup. Upcoming games will be the real test for this team, nice to also see Sauve playing at the top of her game. Go Bucks Go.

 

[pgb-ohio]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

���� We're heading for a SHOWDOWN!����

Way to take care of business this weekend. One would expect the Buckeyes and Gophers both to be licking their chops heading into this series. I hope the Gopher team that shows up is more like the one that played yesterday, than Friday's team, which was very disappointing.

I bought my month's worth of College Sports Live yesterday and I look forward to tuning in to the streams

pgb and osualum86 are you attending the games this weekend?

Why do you ask? Because '86 & I both have such spotty attendance records?

Well, my car needs an oil change & I've got a ton of laundry to do. But if I work efficiently, I just may be able to squeeze in the games. There is, of course, plenty of incentive. The series should be excellent.

 

[osualum86]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

���� We're heading for a SHOWDOWN!����

Way to take care of business this weekend. One would expect the Buckeyes and Gophers both to be licking their chops heading into this series. I hope the Gopher team that shows up is more like the one that played yesterday, than Friday's team, which was very disappointing.

I bought my month's worth of College Sports Live yesterday and I look forward to tuning in to the streams

pgb and osualum86 are you attending the games this weekend?

I will be there for both! I know Minnesota is going to be motivated as the Buckeyes took five of the six points at Ridder back in October with a win and a shootout win. The Bucks will need to bring their A game.

 

[osualum86]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

Nice to see the "Straw" ( Maltais) back in the lineup. Coach may have been hard on the gals last week but nothing beats having the leading scorer in the WCHA back in your lineup. Upcoming games will be the real test for this team, nice to also see Sauve playing at the top of her game. Go Bucks Go.

Emma is clearly an amazing player and I don't think she ever gets tired as she was all over the ice both games. She basically sealed the deal yesterday with a beautiful breakaway goal that made it 4-2. With only two goals scored against her in the past three games, yeah, I would say Kass is back on her game. She may have let in four vs Penn State (one of their goals was an empty-netter), but everyone played bad that game. Kass did not get any help from the players in front of her in that game. Anyway, yeah, the Bucks seem to have things figured out. This should be a hotly-contested series this weekend.

 

[osualum86]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

Hungry for more 3 Stars? Game for another write-up? See The WCHA thread.

Heading over to that thread now. Cannot wait to see it. I have a feeling Charly Dahlquist is going to figure into the three stars for yesterday's game.

 

[pgb-ohio]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

I will be there for both! I know Minnesota is going to be motivated as the Buckeyes took five of the six points at Ridder back in October with a win and a shootout win. The Bucks will need to bring their A game.

A+ Game; but yes.

Emma is clearly an amazing player and I don't think she ever gets tired as she was all over the ice both games.

There was no jet lag issue, that's for sure.

She basically sealed the deal yesterday with a beautiful breakaway goal that made it 4-2.

I wasn't comfortable until Jincy scored the 5th goal. But in hindsight, Emma's goal was the one that returned the momentum to the Buckeyes for good.

Heading over to that thread now. Cannot wait to see it. I have a feeling Charly Dahlquist is going to figure into the three stars for yesterday's game.

It's true that great minds think alike. We often do. But even a feeble-minded person would have found a place for Charly on Saturday's list!

 

[osualum86]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

Pgb - Haha, yeah, I never claim to be a hockey expert. I could not have a legitimate conversation about the x's and o's of the game, but after being the distributor on that line for much of the season and watching her linemates score the goals, it was really nice seeing Charly Dahlquist stick a couple into the back of the net Saturday. She is a special young lady. It couldn't have been easy to see your program dropped and have to start over somewhere else. That goes for all the players that played for UND and had to find new homes to continue their college hockey careers. I am very happy that Charly chose to be a Buckeye, and I would be remiss if I didn't mention former UND assistant coach Peter Elander, who has also come on board and is doing great things for our program. Anyway, safe travels to all who are coming down this weekend. I know Eeyore said he would be here, and I hope to see CrazyDave also.

 

[CrazyDave]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

Greetings all. I know that I've been MIA from the board for awhile, though I'm still plenty busy with the Gopher gals and their booster club. Anyway, just came on briefly to drop the note that I will be in Columbus this weekend.

The last time I saw Coach Muz, she strongly suggested that I make the trip; I told her that the league shouldn't schedule the series on a weekend when Gopher football had a home game (yeah, I know, priorities... ). Since that's not a problem with a January hockey series, I'm making the trip. See you on Friday.