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Northeastern Huskies 2013-14 Season Thread II: In Witt we Trust

Re: Northeastern Huskies 2013-14 Season Thread II: In Witt we Trust

TheRevengeance said:
Perhaps I'm just leading myself to more disappointment, but I'm optimistic for tonight. It's not like we're looking for Huntsville to beat Minnesota, we have the "normal" scenarios.
Click to expand...

Well, Penn State did it! Just what we needed. Whoever was the wet blanket that said that we had an 8% chance of making it, I'd like to see what the % is now. Furthermore, I'd be willing to bet that the 92% of ways we don't make it were mostly unrealistic scenarios where the bottom seeds end up winning their respective tournaments. Anyway, I'm pretty happy about the outcome yesterday. We'll see what happens today and this weekend.
 
Re: Northeastern Huskies 2013-14 Season Thread II: In Witt we Trust

well.. regardless of outcomes tonight, i hope the team is or has been practicing. and hard.
if we do make it.. just want a good effort & showing. they owe it to themselves.
(and us!) :)
 
Re: Northeastern Huskies 2013-14 Season Thread II: In Witt we Trust

I'll be watching Penn State and Wisconsin at 3. Need Wisky to take care of business. Then Union at 430.
 
Re: Northeastern Huskies 2013-14 Season Thread II: In Witt we Trust

Happy Husky Victory! said:
Well, Penn State did it! Just what we needed. Whoever was the wet blanket that said that we had an 8% chance of making it, I'd like to see what the % is now. Furthermore, I'd be willing to bet that the 92% of ways we don't make it were mostly unrealistic scenarios where the bottom seeds end up winning their respective tournaments. Anyway, I'm pretty happy about the outcome yesterday. We'll see what happens today and this weekend.
Click to expand...

No one said we had an 8% chance of making it, only that of the total number of remaining scenarios at the time, we only made the field in 8% of them. There was no weighting for likelihood.

At the time, there were 3-odd MM scenarios left. Now there are ~750k. The OSU-MSU game should have been roughly neutral to our chances, but the PSU-UM game should have knocked out a lot more don't-make-the-field than do-make-the-field scenarios.

Based on Jim Dahl's comments on other at-large teams, I'd guess NU went up to about 18% of scenarios put the Huskies in the tournament. As before, that's a simple count with no weighting for likelihood.
 
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Re: Northeastern Huskies 2013-14 Season Thread II: In Witt we Trust

Craig P. said:
The OSU-MSU game should have been roughly neutral to our chances.
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I was playing with the predictor during the OT intermission, OSU was slightly better than MSU. Probably just because MSU was slightly more favorable to Michigan and we're competing with them now.
 
Re: Northeastern Huskies 2013-14 Season Thread II: In Witt we Trust

Happy Husky Victory! said:
Well, Penn State did it! Just what we needed. Whoever was the wet blanket that said that we had an 8% chance of making it, I'd like to see what the % is now. Furthermore, I'd be willing to bet that the 92% of ways we don't make it were mostly unrealistic scenarios where the bottom seeds end up winning their respective tournaments. Anyway, I'm pretty happy about the outcome yesterday. We'll see what happens today and this weekend.
Click to expand...

NOOOOOO! Don't give in to the optimism!

It's going to look good until the very last minute and then Bowling Green or Denver will steal an autobid and we'll be #15.
 
Re: Northeastern Huskies 2013-14 Season Thread II: In Witt we Trust

walrus655321 said:
NOOOOOO! Don't give in to the optimism!

It's going to look good until the very last minute and then Bowling Green or Denver will steal an autobid and we'll be #15.
Click to expand...

Im real worried about the NCHC. I don't see N. Dakota winning it.
 
Re: Northeastern Huskies 2013-14 Season Thread II: In Witt we Trust

So with the Q and Union winning tonight, still if NCHC is won by someone other than N.Dakota and Minn State wins WCHA NU is out.
 
Re: Northeastern Huskies 2013-14 Season Thread II: In Witt we Trust

retsap71 said:
So with the Q and Union winning tonight, still if NCHC is won by someone other than N.Dakota and Minn State wins WCHA NU is out.
Click to expand...

By trailing Michigan in the 5th (or lower) decimal place in RPI. Ouch.

If Notre Dame beats Lowell, the shift in Michigan's RPI is enough to flip NU ahead. It doesn't matter if Providence or ND wins Hockey East, as long as ND beats Lowell. Providence beating Lowell in the final doesn't work.

NU can also survive this scenario with UML winning Hockey East if Alaska-Anchorage beats Ferris State.

(Driving this is that Michigan played both UML and Ferris State in non-conference play, so their losses hurt Michigan's RPI.)
 
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Re: Northeastern Huskies 2013-14 Season Thread II: In Witt we Trust

northeastern said:
well.. regardless of outcomes tonight, i hope the team is or has been practicing. and hard.
if we do make it.. just want a good effort & showing. they owe it to themselves.
(and us!) :)
Click to expand...

They have been practicing as though they were planning to play some more this weekend or next.

Is there any scenario in which we will know our fate after today's games, or will have to wait until Saturday night?
 
Re: Northeastern Huskies 2013-14 Season Thread II: In Witt we Trust

retsap71 said:
So with the Q and Union winning tonight, still if NCHC is won by someone other than N.Dakota and Minn State wins WCHA NU is out.
Click to expand...

I think I saw some scenarios where we could leap over N. Dakota. If that happens then it doesn't really matter...as long as the NCHC isn't a three bid league.
 
Re: Northeastern Huskies 2013-14 Season Thread II: In Witt we Trust

HHound said:
Is there any scenario in which we will know our fate after today's games, or will have to wait until Saturday night?
Click to expand...

I think there are quite a few scenarios, both positive and negative, where we know our fate after today's games.

e.g. all three of Colgate, Cornell, and MSU-M win, we're done. All three lose, I think we're in.
 
Re: Northeastern Huskies 2013-14 Season Thread II: In Witt we Trust

Craig P. said:
I think there are quite a few scenarios, both positive and negative, where we know our fate after today's games.

e.g. all three of Colgate, Cornell, and MSU-M win, we're done. All three lose, I think we're in.
Click to expand...

The one concern here would be that if MSU loses and then Bowling Green turns around and beats Ferris tomorrow, that steals a bid.
 
Re: Northeastern Huskies 2013-14 Season Thread II: In Witt we Trust

walrus655321 said:
I think I saw some scenarios where we could leap over N. Dakota. If that happens then it doesn't really matter...as long as the NCHC isn't a three bid league.
Click to expand...

Pretty sure that is if N.Dakota loses the consolation game.
 
Re: Northeastern Huskies 2013-14 Season Thread II: In Witt we Trust

walrus655321 said:
The one concern here would be that if MSU loses and then Bowling Green turns around and beats Ferris tomorrow, that steals a bid.
Click to expand...

Why I will be tuning into the Wisky game shortly. MInn State starting right now. Need Penn State to lose as well as UNH tonight. So know I know that I want ND to win tonight. ND and Providence.
 
Re: Northeastern Huskies 2013-14 Season Thread II: In Witt we Trust

Lots of permutations still. UNH winning tonight actually helps our RPI a bit since they played 5 times....the ideal scenario would be them losing to ND and Bowling Green losing to Ferris.
 
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Re: Northeastern Huskies 2013-14 Season Thread II: In Witt we Trust

walrus655321 said:
Lots of permutations still. UNH winning tonight actually helps our RPI a bit since they played 5 times....the ideal scenario would be them losing to ND and Bowling Green losing to Ferris.
Click to expand...

Would be a tense night.
 
Re: Northeastern Huskies 2013-14 Season Thread II: In Witt we Trust

Penn state and Wisco tied 1-1 with 6:30 left in the 2nd. If PSU wins, how bad is that for NU? Big IF in my opinion but who knows
 
Re: Northeastern Huskies 2013-14 Season Thread II: In Witt we Trust

retsap71 said:
Why I will be tuning into the Wisky game shortly. MInn State starting right now. Need Penn State to lose as well as UNH tonight. So know I know that I want ND to win tonight. ND and Providence.
Click to expand...

Would UNH losing tonight reflect badly on NU? It would seem to be more beneficial to us if UNH won tonight and lost tomorrow to whomever they play.

It seems that our posters are having as much fun handicapping our NC$$ chances as they had all season (at least through February)!:rolleyes:
 
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