NHL Bankrolls College Hockey Expansion As Youth Game Explodes

[Patman]

Re: NHL Bankrolls College Hockey Expansion As Youth Game Explodes

I believe a linear regression is the technique you would use. The main null hypothesis of a regression is that there is no relationship between the X variables (state registrations) and the Y variable (attendance average for all teams in that state); in other words, the Y values you predict from your multiple regression equation are no closer to the actual Y values than you would expect by chance. You have to have a p value of less than 0.05 to then claim there is a 95% probability of a correlation.
You maybe then could also analyze by junior or NHL or college attendance to see if one does have a higher correlation.

You believe?

We're looking for men with much more strength than mere belief!

Seriously, this wasn't necessary.

 

[ExileOnDaytonStreet]

Seriously, this wasn't necessary.

This should be the mission statement of these forums.

 

[Rightnut]

I was told there would be no math...

Those are all tempered climate locations for indoor and/or fair weather sports. Comparing any of those locations is pretty much all relative. Yes, it rains a lot in the Pacific NW, but none of those locations are -20 F up to freezing for highs in the Winter months. Given that they are all fair climate, large campus locations for general education then recruits start looking at the history of the program, is it successful, coaches, etc when picking a school. Hockey schools in MN are not getting recruits because of their weather. On the flip side, no one is playing hockey at ASU because of the repeated success and long standing traditions of the program.

In hockey you're competing against teams that are almost exclusively in the Northern half of the US. There is nothing pleasant about the Midwest, New England, Alaska, etc in the Winter. The location of ASU is currently unique compared to almost all of the other 59 teams. There isn't anything really unique about ASU's location compared to hundreds of other baseball, football, basketball playing campus location in D-I. However, you bring in a bunch of other PAC12 teams into hockey and suddenly there are a half dozen schools all with the same thing to offer - a warm weather stop off for teams every couple years. When that happens, ASU is no longer unique and no longer stands out.

Not sure why you think there is a limit on good players who will go to nice weather spots. ASU will still get good recruits if there is a PAC 12. It’s the crappy weather teams- good or bad- that will lose out. Same reason NHL free agents don’t go to Winnipeg and Edmonton. When the PAC 12 builds it they will come.

 

[JohnsonsJerseys]

Re: NHL Bankrolls College Hockey Expansion As Youth Game Explodes

Not sure why you think there is a limit on good players who will go to nice weather spots. ASU will still get good recruits if there is a PAC 12. It’s the crappy weather teams- good or bad- that will lose out. Same reason NHL free agents don’t go to Winnipeg and Edmonton. When the PAC 12 builds it they will come.

I'm not saying there is a limit of players. My point is that ASU goes from THE team, to A team. IN D-I hockey you can be awful and still get talent because you have scholarships to offer them. A 4th line guy on a mid-level team can get a full ride at a bottom feeder team. Gosh knows Michigan Tech hosted plenty of those guys for a couple decades.

I would also be interested to see a quote from any NHL player to didn't go to Winnipeg, Edmonton or any city for that matter based on the weather... There wasn't a problem getting talent to join Edmonton in the 1980s and it still was quite cold then. Winning draws players in the NHL, not the weather, or lack thereof. If weather was the determining factor of where players went the Phoenix Coyotes would have a roster on par with the NHL West All-Stars of NHL 94 SEGA Hockey... Unbeatable. (It's mostly Roenick, he's pretty good.)

 

[Sol Diablo]

Re: NHL Bankrolls College Hockey Expansion As Youth Game Explodes

You believe?

We're looking for men with much more strength than mere belief!

Seriously, this wasn't necessary.

You just proved again that no good deed goes unpunished. I was trying to help the guy save some time, by pointing him to the correct means to find correlations. But I agree with you, your posting was not necessary.

 

[Sol Diablo]

Re: NHL Bankrolls College Hockey Expansion As Youth Game Explodes

I was told there would be no math...

Those are all tempered climate locations for indoor and/or fair weather sports. Comparing any of those locations is pretty much all relative. Yes, it rains a lot in the Pacific NW, but none of those locations are -20 F up to freezing for highs in the Winter months. Given that they are all fair climate, large campus locations for general education then recruits start looking at the history of the program, is it successful, coaches, etc when picking a school. Hockey schools in MN are not getting recruits because of their weather. On the flip side, no one is playing hockey at ASU because of the repeated success and long standing traditions of the program.

In hockey you're competing against teams that are almost exclusively in the Northern half of the US. There is nothing pleasant about the Midwest, New England, Alaska, etc in the Winter. The location of ASU is currently unique compared to almost all of the other 59 teams. There isn't anything really unique about ASU's location compared to hundreds of other baseball, football, basketball playing campus location in D-I. However, you bring in a bunch of other PAC12 teams into hockey and suddenly there are a half dozen schools all with the same thing to offer - a warm weather stop off for teams every couple years. When that happens, ASU is no longer unique and no longer stands out.

I understand what you are saying, I partially agree with you here and totally agree with what you said earlier about players picking colleges based on what it gets them. But, I question legacy has much to do with it. Legacy is history vs. what can you do for me tomorrow. Smart players will give greater bias for the latter not the former.
ASU is not drawing players due to the outdoor winter climate, although it helps, but rather due to the opportunity to show the NHL scouts that they can help build a team and now a belief that the coaching is great and that will get them into the NHL like Joey Daccord. You are correct, they aren't picking it for history.

Being there is a tiered pool of player performance then as you add more teams, regardless of the location, there will be more demand for high talent players, existing teams will lose some potential recruits. The overall talent level of each team may decrease for some time until more skilled, competitive players enter the top tier and that level becomes larger. This will affect all teams, not just ASU.
By the way, if you think Tempe has a fair weather climate, I invite you to c'mon down in September, watch a football game in Sun Devil Stadium when its 112 F on the field, or to an ASU baseball game in May when its 110 F on the field. Yet they get high level athletes, nothing to do with history, nothing to do with weather.
Overall I think we are on the same page, maybe just emphasizing the differences.....

 

[Patman]

Re: NHL Bankrolls College Hockey Expansion As Youth Game Explodes

You just proved again that no good deed goes unpunished. I was trying to help the guy save some time, by pointing him to the correct means to find correlations. But I agree with you, your posting was not necessary.

a king pedant would mention he said nothing about linear regression and correlation is a general term that goes beyond the concept of mere linear correlation... but I wouldn't do that.

 

[ExileOnDaytonStreet]

Re: NHL Bankrolls College Hockey Expansion As Youth Game Explodes

https://comb.io/BnWcJi.gif

 

[Sol Diablo]

Re: NHL Bankrolls College Hockey Expansion As Youth Game Explodes

Want to help college hockey? Plenty of places the NHL can help existing teams without having to search for places to dump their money with useless studies. Here is how the studies go:
Do you currently have a D-I hockey team on your campus? - No.
Does anyone on your campus want a team? - Yes.
"In summary, our study finds that men's hockey would be a great addition at XXXXX university/college. Many alumni, students and staff at XXXXX university/college are "very excited" about the prospects of having a D-I hockey team. We fully expect the program will be successful and will start play just as soon as they can find/build a suitable facility for the team and raise the necessary funds to start the team and pay the coaching staff and set a budget to keep the team going and start another women's sport to comply with Title IX..."

• How about they bankroll ASU a real hockey rink like they kept the Coyotes afloat for so many years?
• Why can't the NHL subsidize the AK programs to keep them on the ice?
• UAH is right down the road from Nashville. Where is the Predators' support for the Chargers if the NHL cares so much about D-I college hockey?
• Why is only men's hockey being evaluated? How about a women's D-I team in Michigan? Currently SEVEN men's programs in the state and none for women.
• Maybe a Kraft Hockeyville type award for D-I teams and give $100,000 to a college team each season based on program infrastructure needs?

Alaska has two teams on the brink of dropping their programs, but no NHL team there so they could care less. ASU is FIVE years into D-I hockey "with half a million alumni" and is still playing in a rink most HS teams wouldn't touch. Their "press box" has expanded metal mesh for the floor and a sprinkler water main pipe running through the middle of it four feet off the floor. Clearly hockey is a "huge" priority at ASU. UAH is in Alabama where only college football matters and the NHL already failed next door in Georgia (twice).

But yes, let's keep spending money on studies with predictable outcomes to tell budget crunched colleges with no money they should go find $100M to add men's hockey and another women's sport. Off the record, I'm sure the NHL would much rather spend their money on the Canadian Junior talent pipeline. But let's be honest, talking up US College Hockey is a better PR strategy for the NHL since most of their teams play in US cities.

You bring up some very good points. I will add a little slant to the imaginary world of the NHL seriously helping college hockey.... Many businesses will invest some money into supporting existing products for existing markets (hockey for existing colleges - maintenance), some money into existing products for new markets (hockey for new colleges - growth) and some money into new products for existing or new markets (doesn't apply here). I don't see serious effort in the first two tactics by the NHL. But maybe I'm missing the behind-the-scenes work that may be going on? I do see that the Coyotes are somewhat funding and supporting peewee, midget youth hockey to some extent.

 

[Sol Diablo]

Re: NHL Bankrolls College Hockey Expansion As Youth Game Explodes

https://kjzz.org/content/1084526/phoenix-area-standouts-helping-grow-girls-hockey-arizona