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NHL 2013 - The Lower 48.

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Re: NHL 2013 - The Lower 48.

Slap Shot said:
We? Why do you live here? ;)
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Brenthoven said:
Just posting from the persona of the image. ;)
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Given that you're a Devils fan I think the question is still valid. :p

Speaking of which, why did Hedberg play on Saturday? Did the Devils not want Brodeur's last game to be an embarrassing loss to the Rangers behind a team that had already mentally checked out, on account of having been eliminated from playoff contention in an embarrassing loss to the same Rangers the prior weekend?
 
Re: NHL 2013 - The Lower 48.

So last season I made big long posts with winning probabilities for each series and match-up probabilities and all that fun stuff. Would people be interested in me doing that again or should I keep it to myself?
(example post)
 
Re: NHL 2013 - The Lower 48.

lugnut92 said:
So last season I made big long posts with winning probabilities for each series and match-up probabilities and all that fun stuff. Would people be interested in me doing that again or should I keep it to myself?
(example post)
Click to expand...
I enjoyed reading them. If you're going to be doing the analysis regardless then I'd certainly appreciate it if you posted them, but if it's a lot of effort and you want to save yourself the time then you shouldn't feel compelled to do it on my account.
 
Re: NHL 2013 - The Lower 48.

jmh said:
I enjoyed reading them. If you're going to be doing the analysis regardless then I'd certainly appreciate it if you posted them, but if it's a lot of effort and you want to save yourself the time then you shouldn't feel compelled to do it on my account.
Click to expand...

Good enough for me.

KRACH PLAYOFF PREVIEW
Based on Bradley-Terry rankings (i.e., KRACH), the most likely outcomes in the first round are:

West: CHI in 5 (30.3%), ANA in 6 (18.8%), VAN in 6 (18.9%), LAK in 6 (16.2%)
East: PIT in 5 (29.8%), MON in 6 (19.4%), NYR in 6 (17.3%), TOR in 6 (17.1%)

Overall first round winning probabilities:
West
CHI 90.3% - MIN 9.72%
ANA 61.8% - DET 38.2%
VAN 62.5% - SJS 37.5%
STL 47.9% - LAK 52.1%

East
PIT 89.3% - NYI 10.7%
MON 64.5% - OTT 35.5%
WAS 43.7% - NYR 56.3%
BOS 44.8% - TOR 55.2%

Conference Semis Matchups:
Code: 
-------------------------------------------
|WEST |                AWAY               |
|CONF.|-----------------------------------|
|     | VAN | STL | LAK | SJS | DET | MIN |
|-----------------------------------------|
| |CHI|XXXXX|16.7%|18.2%|20.9%|34.5%|XXXXX|
| |---|-----------------------------------|
| |ANA|34.9%|10.0%|10.9%|XXXXX|XXXXX|6.01%|
| |---|-----------------------------------|
|H|VAN|XXXXX|12.1%|13.2%|XXXXX|XXXXX|2.32%|
|O|---|-----------------------------------|
|M|STL|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|7.26%|1.11%|0.67%|
|E|---|-----------------------------------|
| |LAK|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|7.91%|1.21%|0.73%|
| |---|-----------------------------------|
| |SJS|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|1.39%|XXXXX|
-------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------
|EAST |                AWAY               |
|CONF.|-----------------------------------|
|     | WAS | BOS | TOR | NYR | OTT | NYI |
|-----------------------------------------|
| |PIT|XXXXX|11.3%|13.9%|32.4%|31.7%|XXXXX|
| |---|-----------------------------------|
| |MON|25.1%|14.5%|17.9%|XXXXX|XXXXX|6.93%|
| |---|-----------------------------------|
|H|WAS|XXXXX|7.56%|9.32%|XXXXX|XXXXX|1.67%|
|O|---|-----------------------------------|
|M|BOS|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|9.74%|0.75%|0.96%|
|E|---|-----------------------------------|
| |TOR|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|12.0%|0.92%|1.19%|
| |---|-----------------------------------|
| |NYR|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|2.15%|XXXXX|
-------------------------------------------

Conference Champions:
West
CHI - 65.63%
ANA - 10.22%
LAK - 7.18%
STL - 5.98%
VAN - 5.40%
DET - 2.83%
MIN - 1.43%
SJS - 1.33%

East
PIT - 58.43%
MON - 12.66%
TOR - 10.14%
BOS - 6.55%
NYR - 5.13%
WAS - 3.23%
OTT - 2.59%
NYI - 1.27%

Stanley Cup Champions:
CHI - 43.69%
PIT - 33.49%
MON - 4.12%
ANA - 3.64%
TOR - 3.33%
LAK - 2.42%
STL - 1.91%
BOS - 1.89%
VAN - 1.46%
NYR - 1.28%
DET - 0.74%
WAS - 0.67%
OTT - 0.57%
MIN - 0.32%
SJS - 0.24%
NYI - 0.23%

Standard KRACH disclaimers apply. Also, the Stanley Cup predictions assume that what makes an "average" team in one conference is the same in the other. This is a terrible awful assumption and someone should probably beat me up for it.
 
Re: NHL 2013 - The Lower 48.

My $.02 is Anaheim over Pittsburgh for the Cup. I certainly was among the many people who didn't foresee the #8 seed L.A. Kings skating away with the Cup last season. That was a good example that anything can happen in the playoffs.
 
A Shot and a Goal said:
My $.02 is Anaheim over Pittsburgh for the Cup. I certainly was among the many people who didn't foresee the #8 seed L.A. Kings skating away with the Cup last season. That was a good example that anything can happen in the playoffs.
Click to expand...

Except LA wasn't a true 8 seed if you really matched up the teams. They underachieved until midway and then found their stride. Anything can happen, sure, but let's not get carried away thinking most 7 and 8 seeds stand a realistic shot at the cup every year.
 
Re: NHL 2013 - The Lower 48.

hockeyplayer1015 said:
Except LA wasn't a true 8 seed if you really matched up the teams. They underachieved until midway and then found their stride. Anything can happen, sure, but let's not get carried away thinking most 7 and 8 seeds stand a realistic shot at the cup every year.
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Oh really? So finishing the season 3-2-3 and having more wins than Losses(including OTLs) in only one month is finding your stride? The Kings were pretty even through the whole season except they won 6 games in a row (including 2 in shootout) in the middle of March. It's funny how facts get in the way of perception of the Kings last year...
 
Shirtless Guy said:
Oh really? So finishing the season 3-2-3 and having more wins than Losses(including OTLs) in only one month is finding your stride? The Kings were pretty even through the whole season except they won 6 games in a row (including 2 in shootout) in the middle of March. It's funny how facts get in the way of perception of the Kings last year...
Click to expand...

Finishing 5-2-3 in their last 10, securing their playoff spot with a week to go, and only finishing 2 points out of the 3 seed. Funny how one can twist stats around to make an argument, isn't it?
 
Re: NHL 2013 - The Lower 48.

hockeyplayer1015 said:
Finishing 5-2-3 in their last 10, securing their playoff spot with a week to go, and only finishing 2 points out of the 3 seed. Funny how one can twist stats around to make an argument, isn't it?
Click to expand...
LA went 4-6 in games 39-48 last season, while MN was 4-5-1 in those 10 games this year...I think that's a fair comparison, no?

I don't think Minnesota will win the series, but it's the playoffs...anything can happen.
 
Re: NHL 2013 - The Lower 48.

MinnesotaNorthStar said:
LA went 4-6 in games 39-48 last season, while MN was 4-5-1 in those 10 games this year...I think that's a fair comparison, no?

I don't think Minnesota will win the series, but it's the playoffs...anything can happen.
Click to expand...
I don't see how that's an apples-to-apples comparison given that games 39-48 last season were in the middle of the year and this year they were the last ten.
 
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