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NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup

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Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup

Dustin Penner, a man who shows you how far you can get in life with hard work and dedication, is about to have his name on the Stanley Cup for a second time.
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup

Based on Bradley-Terry rankings (i.e., KRACH) found in the spreadsheet burgie12 gave me (but also here), the updated (after 6/4) probabilities for each possible outcome of the Stanley Cup Final are:

Code: 
-------------
| Game|  %  |
|-----------|
| NJD |46.7%|
|-----|-----|
| LAK |53.3%|
-------------
----------------
| Outcome|  %  |
|--------------|
|NJD in 7|4.77%|
|--------|-----|
|LAK in 4|53.3%|
|--------|-----|
|LAK in 5|24.9%|
|--------|-----|
|LAK in 6|11.6%|
|--------|-----|
|LAK in 7|5.43%|
|==============|
|     NJD|4.77%|
|--------|-----|
|     LAK|95.2%|
----------------
Game: Probability of winning each game

Most likely: LAK in 4

As always, KRACH is not a perfect predictive system. In fact, it's not predictive at all; it's retrodictive. Home-ice advantage, momentum, and the like can not be accounted for reliably, so they are ignored.

Remarks: The Kings have made it to 3-0 for the fourth time this playoffs, and it's worked pretty well for them in the past. In history, 3 NHL teams have come back from the 3-0 deficit to win their series, with one of those instances occurring in the Cup Final. Another interesting possibility is that the Kings may sweep the series while never having trailed, something that has only occurred twice in the Stanley Cup Final.
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup

So LA needs to lose Game 4, win Game 5, on the road.

This way, I win my bet, and we get an extra game of hockey.

And the Bruins will be champions for 48 hours longer, haha.
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup

bronconick said:
Dustin Penner, a man who shows you how far you can get in life with hard work and dedication, is about to have his name on the Stanley Cup for a second time.
Click to expand...
Hard work or not, he was great at UMaine
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup

lugnut92 said:
Disclaimers are there for a reason.
Click to expand...
Its a stupid disclaimer. 1: Obviously there is no perfect predictive system. 2: You're posting on an internet message board, not writing an article for the New York Times.

If anyone here is dumb enough to think that those predictions are guaranteed correct, they deserve to suffer the consequences of his/her stupidity.
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup

bigblue_dl said:
Its a stupid disclaimer. 1: Obviously there is no perfect predictive system. 2: You're posting on an internet message board, not writing an article for the New York Times.

If anyone here is dumb enough to think that those predictions are guaranteed correct, they deserve to suffer the consequences of his/her stupidity.
Click to expand...

I think you're just being argumentative ;). I haven't paid much attention to his posts about the statistical probablities, because I don't believe in mathematical probabilities when it comes to Lord Stanley's Cup. That said, if crunching the numbers makes you happy, do it.
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup

FadeToBlack&Gold said:
That said, if crunching the numbers makes you happy, do it.
Click to expand...

I do like the spreadsheets... Honestly, I set up the spreadsheet for myself just because numbers are fun to play with (it's the RPI mind), and I figured I would post them here since it takes me all of two minutes to put the new numbers in the post (which I have saved as a .txt) and some people may find it interesting. No one ever complained (I even got some rep out of it), so I just kept on posting. I post the same disclaimer every time just in case someone new comes in that hasn't seen the previous posts. Obviously no one expects the numbers to be right every time, but I felt I should qualify my numbers given that they're made on an inherently flawed system.
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup

aupqiqmcmaama02.jpg


Does Tim fear another Obama term, or the December 21 date for the end of the world?
 
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