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NFL 2014-15: Iron Fist Getting Rusty?

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Re: NFL 2014-15: Iron Fist Getting Rusty?

McCarthy with a pretty rough game in terms of his decision making...

Peppers on a slant? Sure, it would have been fun, but it failed.

The onside kick? Why would you try that in this game at that time?

Going for it on 4th and 1 and running it? Lacy had some nice runs tonight, but our line hasn't shown that they can get a push when needed this entire season.


Granted, none of those are the reasons that our defense sucks and can't cover or tackle, but they didn't help.
 
Re: NFL 2014-15: Iron Fist Getting Rusty?

Of course the ******* won't take any blame and just blame the lack of execution...
 
Re: NFL 2014-15: Iron Fist Getting Rusty?

Gurtholfin said:
McCarthy with a pretty rough game in terms of his decision making...

Peppers on a slant? Sure, it would have been fun, but it failed.

The onside kick? Why would you try that in this game at that time?

Going for it on 4th and 1 and running it? Lacy had some nice runs tonight, but our line hasn't shown that they can get a push when needed this entire season.


Granted, none of those are the reasons that our defense sucks and can't cover or tackle, but they didn't help.
Click to expand...


The Saints also went for it on 4th and one on the other 40. Statistically, both teams made the right decision. /advancedstats
 
Re: NFL 2014-15: Iron Fist Getting Rusty?

Brenthoven said:
The Saints also went for it on 4th and one on the other 40. Statistically, both teams made the right decision. /advancedstats
Click to expand...


4th and 1 general NFL probabilities or Packer specific?


Trust me, runs have been blown up on us in just that fashion all season.
 
Re: NFL 2014-15: Iron Fist Getting Rusty?

And to be honest, you can take your "advancedstats" and shove them right up... :p

If coaches are just going to rely on probabilities, why even bother with a coach managing the game? Just go with the probabilities.

McCarthy should have known his line couldn't block that play coz they haven't all season.
 
Re: NFL 2014-15: Iron Fist Getting Rusty?

Brenthoven said:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/05/upshot/4th-down-when-to-go-for-it-and-why.html
Click to expand...

So you cite an article that says this as proof:

"On fourth-and-1, go for it any place on the field where that is possible, starting at your 9-yard line."

:rolleyes:


He admits at the end of the article that it's a general probabilities formula and that not all NFL teams are going to have the same results.


Congrats on finding this obscure article though.
 
Re: NFL 2014-15: Iron Fist Getting Rusty?

Gurtholfin said:
So you cite an article that says this as proof:

"On fourth-and-1, go for it any place on the field where that is possible, starting at your 9-yard line."

:rolleyes:


He admits at the end of the article that it's a general probabilities formula and that not all NFL teams are going to have the same results.


Congrats on finding this obscure article though.
Click to expand...

Actually, I first heard about all this via TMQ years ago, and there are other studies that support the findings. However, the strongest arguments are when you are between the 40 yard lines (or so).
 
Re: NFL 2014-15: Iron Fist Getting Rusty?

Well, as Deadspin likes to say, Gregg Easterbrook is a haughty dip****.

The theory to always go for it on 4th and 1 in certain field positions is perfectly valid, but given the Packers' atrocious run blocking I'm not going to fault McCarthy for not adhering to it. There are plenty of other dumb choices to fault him for.
 
Re: NFL 2014-15: Iron Fist Getting Rusty?

Good Lord, I just realized I have to root for the Redskins tonight. I already feel dirty. Hopefully the asteroid will take us out before then.
 
Re: NFL 2014-15: Iron Fist Getting Rusty?

ExileOnDaytonStreet said:
The theory to always go for it on 4th and 1 in certain field positions is perfectly valid, but given the Packers' atrocious run blocking I'm not going to fault McCarthy for not adhering to it. There are plenty of other dumb choices to fault him for.
Click to expand...


My issue is with the play call, not the decision to go for it at that point in the game.
 
Re: NFL 2014-15: Iron Fist Getting Rusty?

Gurtholfin said:
So you cite an article that says this as proof:

"On fourth-and-1, go for it any place on the field where that is possible, starting at your 9-yard line."

:rolleyes:


He admits at the end of the article that it's a general probabilities formula and that not all NFL teams are going to have the same results.


Congrats on finding this obscure article though.
Click to expand...


I read a story in Sports Illustrated, I think last year perhaps? about a high school coach who always went for it on 4th down without fail. His experiences validated the probabilities.

The problem with "probabilities" in the NFL is that there are too few instances over which to test it. If you flip a coin eight times, you can get a wide dispersal of results, if you flip a coin 800 times, not so much.

Not the same article, not sure if it is the same coach or not, but here is a ten-second search result. Not only does he always go for it on 4th down, he also always tries an onside kick! :eek:
http://www.sportsgrid.com/high-scho...always-goes-for-the-onside-kick-explains-all/


Since 2003, Kelley’s Pulaski teams have gone 124-22, and have won three state titles. Of course, who’s to say that they wouldn’t have the same record, or an even better one, with conventional kicking tactics? But Kelley says his research has shown that by not punting or kicking off, his team has a 15 percent better chance of winning any given game.

Pulaski recovers onside kicks at a rate of 20 percent, and has a fourth-down conversion rate of 50 percent. On kickoffs, Kelley says his philosophy is worth it because he determined that by kicking deep, opposing teams were getting the ball on the average at the 33 yard-line. When the other team recovered onside kicks, the average starting spot was the 47 — a difference of only 14 yards. Kelley figured 14 yards was well worth it for the 20 percent return in successful onside kick recoveries.
Click to expand...


There is far too much money at stake in NFL games, and the kickers are much better. For example, starting the other team on their 20 after a touchback affects his math quite a bit compared to starting the other team on the 33-yard line. And if your punter can consistently place the ball inside the 10, then maybe punting from your own 45-yard line makes more sense than going for it in that situation.
 
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Re: NFL 2014-15: Iron Fist Getting Rusty?

I did a study last year on the last 10,000-15,000 drives. NFL coaches are a bunch of morons. They should be going for it more.

I think I posted it here.
 
Re: NFL 2014-15: Iron Fist Getting Rusty?

dxmnkd316 said:
So the average points per attempt would look like this (these are aggregated for all games between 2003 and 2013, inclusive - over 11,000 field goals):

*******https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-...9zo/s800/Field%20Goal%20Histogram.png********

Another way to look at it:

*******https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-...w/s800/Field%20Goal%20Percentages.png********
Link to Bigger Image

Now, when you plot field position against average value of the last play of a drive (so in essence, choose between going for it or kicking it):

*******https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-...e%20Value%20of%20Field%20Position.png********

The common wisdom is, "You take the points." But this graph shows something interesting. The field goal attempt is worth more than going for it only between about the 30-yard line and the 50-yard line (really though it's about the 45-yard line since anything beyond that is a miracle kick). Anything closer than around the 30-yard line to 33-yard line and you're better off gunning for the end zone. Anything within the 10-yard line is worth AT LEAST 50 percent more than "taking the points". Again, we're not talking about a few drives here and there, we're talking about a total of 64,000+ drives over the last ten years.

Something else that's interesting is that beyond the fifty yard line, you have about as much of a chance to score as you do from your own 1-yard line. I found that odd that the graph effectively pivots at the 50-yard line.
Click to expand...

I lied, it was the last 64,000 drives. This only evaluates the last play of the drive so I'm essence, point values may be higher.
 
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