NCHC 2018-2019 Season: Quest to put 4+ into Late March-April Dance

[SCSU BlackandRed]

Re: NCHC 2018-2019 Season: Quest to put 4+ into Late March-April Dance

And... a split just as expected. Didn’t get to see the games.. Would love to hear any takes from people that did.

Another big weekend coming up for SCSU. Western just keeps winning.

 

[ThePowerConference]

Re: NCHC 2018-2019 Season: Quest to put 4+ into Late March-April Dance

Good analysis BlackandRed. I think the lead St Cloud has is going to be too much to overcome for the teams below them. They have basically gone the entire first half of conference play with one regulation loss. I will admit that their schedule overall hasn't been very daunting though. They will get tested more in the coming weeks and that started with the series at UMD which is a good split.

I will say that Denver and WMU are both significantly better than I expected them to be. I expected St Cloud and Duluth to be where they are, but not those other two. I think that North Dakota will miss out on the NCAAs for the second straight season. And its likely they may not even make it to the Frozen Faceoff, which could turn attendance into an interesting predicament because they've managed to make it there every year since the NCHC started and their fanbase is what drives that tournament.

 

[Biddco]

Re: NCHC 2018-2019 Season: Quest to put 4+ into Late March-April Dance

And... a split just as expected. Didn’t get to see the games.. Would love to hear any takes from people that did.

Another big weekend coming up for SCSU. Western just keeps winning.

Friday had SCSU playing better than UMD for the most of the game but Shepard and the defense prevented many goals. SCSU only goal was a beauty of a redirect tip. UMD burried there chances in a game that felt like they shouldn't have won.

Saturday UMD came out firing but it felt like they let off the gas a bit once they were up 2-0. SCSU scored twice late in the 1st and then never looked back. UMD had some chances but just couldn't see to bury them.



UMD needs alotta things to happen to win the Penrose this year. Plus Western and Denver are both better than we all thought and can make a push for the title. Disapointing but there's bigger fish to fry come March and April.

 

[SCSUBlackandRed]

Re: NCHC 2018-2019 Season: Quest to put 4+ into Late March-April Dance

Good analysis BlackandRed. I think the lead St Cloud has is going to be too much to overcome for the teams below them. They have basically gone the entire first half of conference play with one regulation loss. I will admit that their schedule overall hasn't been very daunting though. They will get tested more in the coming weeks and that started with the series at UMD which is a good split.

I will say that Denver and WMU are both significantly better than I expected them to be. I expected St Cloud and Duluth to be where they are, but not those other two. I think that North Dakota will miss out on the NCAAs for the second straight season. And its likely they may not even make it to the Frozen Faceoff, which could turn attendance into an interesting predicament because they've managed to make it there every year since the NCHC started and their fanbase is what drives that tournament.

Probably but they can't take a single weekend off. I think they have the toughest schedule left of any of the teams just behind them. No worse than splits with them (WMU, UMD and even UND) and then sweeps of the rest will get it done. Long way to go.

As for UND, going to OT twice at home against CC isn't a good look. I think they are going to finish 5th in the conference and I don't see them going on the road and beating UMD or Denver in the playoffs. Them missing the Frozen Faceoff would absolutely kill attendance for the event and that isn't a good thing.

 

[JAMIE44]

Re: NCHC 2018-2019 Season: Quest to put 4+ into Late March-April Dance

As we wrap out the early season going into conference play, who will be the disappointment? Who will be the dark horse surprise?
Last year, the NCHC was only able to get 3 teams in. B1G held the overall best OOC winning % at .678 vs NCHC’s .649 despite B1G going 5-10-2 against NCHC opponents. Currently, teams are tied at 4-4-1 in head to head play with the NCHC leading at .670 with next best .652. We will see how the rest of the season plays out. I remember someone saying “if you want to make the NCAA, schedule like Penn State. If you want to win the NCAA-schedule like Notre Dame.
Source: https://www.collegehockeynews.com/reports/standings-interconf.php

I expect UMD to win their first regular season conference title since the early 90s (how surprising is that—2 Nat titles out of 60ish teams—can’t beat out ~10 in regular season).. SCSU looks to be the most relevant challenger thus far despite some key losses and coaching change. Omaha looks like hot garbage.
CC is my upset pick of the year. Not expecting them to be top 2 or even 3 but definite strides of improvement. Also thinking Denver may surprise people—they looked pretty solid in facing adversity vs Fairbanks. Really hard to expect much of them with as young of a coach as Carle. And every year, we’ve been waiting on WMU to have a break out season—could this be it?

My picks:
1. UMD
2. SCSU
3. UND
4. WMU
5. CC
6. Denver
7. Miami
8. Omaha
Pretty confident in my top 2 and bottom 2 picks. Middle of the pack will be interesting—but hopefully the middle pack teams score well in pairwise this season

If you look at the remaining schedule in conference play: SC has MD twice & WM 4x, MD has SC & DN, DN has MD & WM.and WM has DN & SC 4x
Assuming WM remains hot and splits those 4 games with SC, and MD beats SC in their rematch then the DN - MD in Du match-up in Duluth might decide if either can catch SCl

 

[SCSUBlackandRed]

Re: NCHC 2018-2019 Season: Quest to put 4+ into Late March-April Dance

If you look at the remaining schedule in conference play: SC has MD twice & WM 4x, MD has SC & DN, DN has MD & WM.and WM has DN & SC 4x
Assuming WM remains hot and splits those 4 games with SC, and MD beats SC in their rematch then the DN - MD in Du match-up in Duluth might decide if either can catch SCl

That's a bit further out but if you just look at this weekend (here's what I think):
*WMU at SCSU - split
*UMD at Miami - split
*UND at UNO - split
Den at CC and CC at Den - DU sweep

Conference Standings:
SCSU - 27 pts
Den - 24
WMU - 23
UMD - 19
UND - 18
Miami - 15
UNO - 11
CC - 7

Then big games the following week with Den at WMU and SCSU at UND. Both Miami and UMD with good shots to sweep at home.

It's going to be interesting every week.

 

[SCSUBlackandRed]

Re: NCHC 2018-2019 Season: Quest to put 4+ into Late March-April Dance

Friday had SCSU playing better than UMD for the most of the game but Shepard and the defense prevented many goals. SCSU only goal was a beauty of a redirect tip. UMD burried there chances in a game that felt like they shouldn't have won.

Saturday UMD came out firing but it felt like they let off the gas a bit once they were up 2-0. SCSU scored twice late in the 1st and then never looked back. UMD had some chances but just couldn't see to bury them.



UMD needs alotta things to happen to win the Penrose this year. Plus Western and Denver are both better than we all thought and can make a push for the title. Disapointing but there's bigger fish to fry come March and April.

Ok, finally got to watch the replays last night. If you went by what the color guy on your TV broadcast had to say, UMD should have won by 15 goals each night. And every UMD penalty was highway robbery and they missed 100 calls on SCSU. I mean, man, they were just giving all the calls to SCSU. "But to their credit, they took advantage." Nice backhanded compliments. I've seen/heard homer announcers before but that guy took the cake. I know now not to ever have the sound on when he's calling a game.

What I saw... UMD is a really good team. Good size and speed, lots of skill and a really really good goalie. SCSU is a good team but struggles against teams that want to be more physical, especially on smaller rinks. Hrenak is good but man, he does make me worry more often than I would like. This formula works in the regular season but could lead to an early out for the Huskies in the NCAAs. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[dogs2012]

Re: NCHC 2018-2019 Season: Quest to put 4+ into Late March-April Dance

Ok, finally got to watch the replays last night. If you went by what the color guy on your TV broadcast had to say, UMD should have won by 15 goals each night. And every UMD penalty was highway robbery and they missed 100 calls on SCSU. I mean, man, they were just giving all the calls to SCSU. "But to their credit, they took advantage." Nice backhanded compliments. I've seen/heard homer announcers before but that guy took the cake. I know now not to ever have the sound on when he's calling a game.

What I saw... UMD is a really good team. Good size and speed, lots of skill and a really really good goalie. SCSU is a good team but struggles against teams that want to be more physical, especially on smaller rinks. Hrenak is good but man, he does make me worry more often than I would like. This formula works in the regular season but could lead to an early out for the Huskies in the NCAAs. I hope I'm wrong.

While I agree, that announcer is a homer and is sometimes hard to listen to...man were the calls bad in those games. It was almost as frustrating as listening to him explain where Grandma keeps the cookies every time somebody scored. Like you said, UMD is a bigger and more physical team. Doesn't mean you need to call a penalty any time a larger defensemen touches a guy.

St. Cloud was about what I expected. Your top two lines are very good, I'd argue they're better than UMD's top two lines. UMD has much more depth across all four lines. UMD's defense is the better group but that's to be expected. St. Cloud's goalie I think surprised me the most, he'll keep you guys in most games. Honestly it's a pretty even matchup talent wise. Should be a fun race to the end here.

 

[cetihcra]

Re: NCHC 2018-2019 Season: Quest to put 4+ into Late March-April Dance

Remaining SOS (average current PWR ranking):

CC(37) - 9.9
Omaha(41) - 12.9
Miami(26) - 14.3
WMU(9) - 19.3
UND(23) - 19.6
SCSU(3) - 21.3
UMD(4) - 22.6
DU(2) - 25.3

Not a huge stretch to see this as the inverse of the final standings

r

 

[Biddco]

Re: NCHC 2018-2019 Season: Quest to put 4+ into Late March-April Dance

Ok, finally got to watch the replays last night. If you went by what the color guy on your TV broadcast had to say, UMD should have won by 15 goals each night. And every UMD penalty was highway robbery and they missed 100 calls on SCSU. I mean, man, they were just giving all the calls to SCSU. "But to their credit, they took advantage." Nice backhanded compliments. I've seen/heard homer announcers before but that guy took the cake. I know now not to ever have the sound on when he's calling a game.

That color analyst is just bad. I didn't watch the game via tv but listening the highlights he was nails on a chalkboard.

 

[dogs2012]

Re: NCHC 2018-2019 Season: Quest to put 4+ into Late March-April Dance

Well, not a ton changed after last weeks games. UMD moves up to second in the conference with the sweep of Miami. St. Cloud takes care of business against WMU. UMD still 8 points back heading into this weekends slate of games. Big series this weekend between Denver and WMU.

 

[Tipsy McStagger]

Re: NCHC 2018-2019 Season: Quest to put 4+ into Late March-April Dance

St. Cloud was about what I expected. Your top two lines are very good, I'd argue they're better than UMD's top two lines. UMD has much more depth across all four lines. UMD's defense is the better group but that's to be expected. St. Cloud's goalie I think surprised me the most, he'll keep you guys in most games. Honestly it's a pretty even matchup talent wise. Should be a fun race to the end here.

Where are you coming up with this stuff? There is zero basis to argue that UMD has more depth across all four lines. SCSU is scoring almost a full goal per game more than UMD in NCHC competition and if you look at the individual offensive stats for conference games, SCSU's forwards blow UMD's out of the water. Defensively, I might give UMD a slight edge, but you seem to be ignoring that your goalie has a .940 SV%. Hrenak's is .914. You could chalk that up to quality chances but Hrenak has been a bit shaky this year.

The race for the Penrose is over. St. Cloud is 9-1-2 in conference play and our next four series are against the bottom 4 teams in the conference. We might have it sewn up with two weekends to play.

 

[dogs2012]

Re: NCHC 2018-2019 Season: Quest to put 4+ into Late March-April Dance

Where are you coming up with this stuff? There is zero basis to argue that UMD has more depth across all four lines. SCSU is scoring almost a full goal per game more than UMD in NCHC competition and if you look at the individual offensive stats for conference games, SCSU's forwards blow UMD's out of the water. Defensively, I might give UMD a slight edge, but you seem to be ignoring that your goalie has a .940 SV%. Hrenak's is .914. You could chalk that up to quality chances but Hrenak has been a bit shaky this year.

The race for the Penrose is over. St. Cloud is 9-1-2 in conference play and our next four series are against the bottom 4 teams in the conference. We might have it sewn up with two weekends to play.

You can have your own opinion. UMD's got the deepest team in the country in mine. You think offensive stats are the only indicator for quality depth? We've given up 17 goals in conference play, you can chalk some of that up to our defense but it's also a lot of skilled two-way forwards. There isn't a team that comes close to UMD's quality depth across all four lines at both ends of the ice. Our defense finished last season touted as the best defensive group in the country. We returned all 6 starters that won a championship last year, the oldest being a Junior. That defensive unit has only gotten better this year. See the goals given up in conference play for your proof there. And yeah, our goaltender is one of the best in the country. So...yeah, I feel confident saying UMD's got more depth, a stronger defense, and better goaltending. I'll concede you have guys that can score goals at a higher pace than ours. And I'll also concede your top two lines are more talented than UMD's top two. But that's about it...and let's not even get into the postseason discrepancy. Not that SCSU's inability to win in the playoffs has any bearing on conference play, but I'll wait to see how things pan out in March/April. Feeling alright about it.

 

[Biddco]

The race for the Penrose is over. St. Cloud is 9-1-2 in conference play and our next four series are against the bottom 4 teams in the conference. We might have it sewn up with two weekends to play.

 

[SCSUBlackandRed]

Re: NCHC 2018-2019 Season: Quest to put 4+ into Late March-April Dance

Well, not a ton changed after last weeks games. UMD moves up to second in the conference with the sweep of Miami. St. Cloud takes care of business against WMU. UMD still 8 points back heading into this weekends slate of games. Big series this weekend between Denver and WMU.

You are correct. Impressive road sweep with two shutouts on the road by UMD at Miami. Miami has gone into a bit of a tailspin since the two ties against SCSU in Oxford. SCSU played very well against a good WMU team. That's a fast fast team. First one I've seen really keeping up with the Huskies in St. Cloud this year. Going to be a battle when they have to go out to Michigan. UND continues to confound. Bad loss to UNO.

Big weekend again this weekend. DU at WMU is the biggest matchup. Split most likely but I wouldn't be surprised if WMU sweeps, they have been really good at home this year. Thinking split between SCSU and UND but possibility of a Huskies sweep. They are definitely the better team but it isn't easy taking two at the Ralph. Mark down 6 points for UMD at home against UNO.

I won't go as far as Tipsy but the next four series for SCSU could put the conference title on lockdown. If they go 7-1 (at UND, Miami, CC, at UNO), the Penrose is all but mathematically theirs. Would most likely only need 1 win in the last two series (at WMU, UMD) to get the hardware. I'm predicting they go 6-1-1 in that stretch. The loss comes this weekend...

 

[SCSUBlackandRed]

Re: NCHC 2018-2019 Season: Quest to put 4+ into Late March-April Dance

And on the Pairwise front, still have 3 of the top 4 spots. Checking the remaining schedules and Jim Dahl's forecast tool, it's looking pretty good for that to hold. Pretty good shot WMU also makes the field, quite possibly in the top 10.

 

[Tipsy McStagger]

Re: NCHC 2018-2019 Season: Quest to put 4+ into Late March-April Dance

You can have your own opinion. UMD's got the deepest team in the country in mine. You think offensive stats are the only indicator for quality depth? We've given up 17 goals in conference play, you can chalk some of that up to our defense but it's also a lot of skilled two-way forwards. There isn't a team that comes close to UMD's quality depth across all four lines at both ends of the ice. Our defense finished last season touted as the best defensive group in the country. We returned all 6 starters that won a championship last year, the oldest being a Junior. That defensive unit has only gotten better this year. See the goals given up in conference play for your proof there. And yeah, our goaltender is one of the best in the country. So...yeah, I feel confident saying UMD's got more depth, a stronger defense, and better goaltending. I'll concede you have guys that can score goals at a higher pace than ours. And I'll also concede your top two lines are more talented than UMD's top two. But that's about it...and let's not even get into the postseason discrepancy. Not that SCSU's inability to win in the playoffs has any bearing on conference play, but I'll wait to see how things pan out in March/April. Feeling alright about it.

Touted by who as the best defense in the country last year, and when? Maybe after they won the title some people thought that, but they didn't even have the best defense in the conference going into the tournament. They were 13-11 in conference play and were the last team in the tournament and needed an absurd stroke of luck to even get in. If their defense was so great, how did it even get to that point? They got hot at the right time. Nothing wrong with that, but to act like they were some kind of juggernaut last year is false. The Gophers hung 7 on UMD this year for pete's sake.

 

[dogs2012]

Re: NCHC 2018-2019 Season: Quest to put 4+ into Late March-April Dance

Touted by who as the best defense in the country last year, and when? Maybe after they won the title some people thought that, but they didn't even have the best defense in the conference going into the tournament. They were 13-11 in conference play and were the last team in the tournament and needed an absurd stroke of luck to even get in. If their defense was so great, how did it even get to that point? They got hot at the right time. Nothing wrong with that, but to act like they were some kind of juggernaut last year is false. The Gophers hung 7 on UMD this year for pete's sake.

It got to that point because we had 1 sophomore and 5 freshman playing on our defensive pairings. By the end of the year, yeah they were absolutely the most stout defensive team in the country. Look at our goals against in the title run for proof of that. We started out slow but as the talent got more acclimated to the college game things started to click. Starting this year out with all those defensemen returning, deductive reasoning tells me they'd start the year at the top of the totem pole.

As for the Gophers score, who cares? It was the first series of the season and after seeing how things have shaped out, a complete fluke. Miami put up a 4 spot on SCSU, UMD has shut them out all year. Should I use that as my reasoning for why UMD's defense is better? No, they're better because they have higher quality talent that over the course of a year will outperform other defensive units. I don't think it's fair to pick one game or one series and make a claim like that.

 

[ThePowerConference]

Re: NCHC 2018-2019 Season: Quest to put 4+ into Late March-April Dance

UMD does have a top defense in the country. Their standing at #3 in the team defense indicates that. St Clouds #2 ranking on team offense would also indicate a top offense. We’ve played enough games now to show that these stats are a pattern, not a fluke.

UMD got hot at the right time last year. St Cloud was a more consistent team during the course of the entire season. Unfortunately, that doesn’t do anything when you get to a tournament and when you lose, the season ends.

I think 4 teams from this conference will qualify for the NCAAs this March, and 2 of them will be #1 seeds.

 

[UMD21]

Re: NCHC 2018-2019 Season: Quest to put 4+ into Late March-April Dance

SCSU fans here are starting to sound like Dubbers in here, gettin so triggered... SCSU probably all most certainly have regular season locked down. Arguing about one team having more depth is laughable we’re talking about the top teams in the nation you really think theres a big discernible difference? Must be bored