NCAA Tourney Team Selection Options

[J.D.]

Hockey East teams rarely get on a plane because they don't need to do so. Nearly the entirety of three conferences (HE, ECAC, AH) is within a 10 hour radius of Boston. In looking at their member team schedules the last couple seasons (not even considering 2020-21 as no one traveled) I would say a very generous average would be 0.5 road trips that require a flight per season, per team. (I did not consider Notre Dame in that number as they were a conference member.) Meaning about once every two years a Hockey East team takes a non-conference road trip that requires a plane (that isn't the NCAA tournament). A long road trip for a Hockey East team is nine hours, and that is if the bus breaks down for four of those hours. From what I remember U-Conn to Maine was the worst trip in Hockey East and that was about a 5 hour drive.

A lot of trips for Western teams, 5 hours is the first rest stop, then back on the bus. In looking at the WCHA, and I'm going to even ignore UAH and the Alaska schools and just look at bus trips, by comparison, the worst WCHA road trip is Bemidji - Bowling Green which is 14 hours. Then throw the three UA_ schools back in the mix and you start to understand why the CCHA is reforming. The WCHA v2.0 was unsustainable from a travel standpoint.

You first said BC. I haven't studied other schedules but BC has traveled west a lot to play a lot of different teams.

 

[jjmc85]

I think 0.5 is low. Without looking it up UMass played at Denver last season and at Ohio State the season before. Doubt they bussed to either of them but I suppose it’s possible.

 

[meff]

I think 0.5 is low. Without looking it up UMass played at Denver last season and at Ohio State the season before. Doubt they bussed to either of them but I suppose it’s possible.

They bussed to tOSU, only time they got on a plane was to Buffalo.

 

[J.D.]

Lowell right on PCs heels in KRACH. If Lowell loses to UMass and Hockey East has to put forth their bubble option, who gets the nod?

 

[Dan]

In five seasons living in Colorado and watching games at DU and CC, I’ve seen BC (3x), UMA (2x), BU, PC, MC, UNH, UML and UVM.

if you’re not getting HE teams in your building it may be that YOUR staff has other scheduling plans...

 

[Numbers]

What changes with BC losing? Probably not much. Do they lose their #1 seed? I don't think so. Still probably ranked above Wisconsin and St Cloud. I can't see any other way, because the committee isn't going with 4 Western #1s.

Only thing that really happens is Lowell still has a chance to mess up everyone's bracket.

Put Lowell in and you get:
West....3 from NCHC, 3 from B10, 2 from WCHA
East....4 from HE, 1 each AHA and ECAC.
Leaves 2 spots for Prov (HEA #5?) LSSU, Omaha, or at at-large from AHA. Personally, I take LSSU and Omaha, and leave PC out.

 

[Fishman'81]

There is nothing you could say or do that would offend me.

ND is the clear to beat and I don't think its close.

You don't think that BC/Mankato/WI/MN have a collective shot?

The dearth of comparative data renders these arguments specious, but I suspect that UND isn't looking at anything like a cakewalk.

 

[J.D.]

I'm most intrigued by Lowell losing to UMass in say an OT heartbreaker...would committee take PC or UML if they take a 4th HE team. I can't see 5 being taken.

 

[Numbers]

s

I'm most intrigued by Lowell losing to UMass in say an OT heartbreaker...would committee take PC or UML if they take a 4th HE team. I can't see 5 being taken.

PC. No question. Winning a semi in double OT isn't that valuable.

 

[SJHovey]

What changes with BC losing? Probably not much. Do they lose their #1 seed? I don't think so. Still probably ranked above Wisconsin and St Cloud. I can't see any other way, because the committee isn't going with 4 Western #1s.

Only thing that really happens is Lowell still has a chance to mess up everyone's bracket.

Put Lowell in and you get:
West....3 from NCHC, 2 from B10, 2 from WCHA
East....4 from HE, 1 each AHA and ECAC.
Leaves 2 spots for Prov (HEA #5?) LSSU, Omaha, or at at-large from AHA. Personally, I take LSSU and Omaha, and leave PC out.

The B1G is going to get three teams, minimum. No chance it’s two.

 

[Numbers]

The B1G is going to get three teams, minimum. No chance it’s two.

I'm sorry. That was a typo. I am going to change it.... I appreciate the help.

 

[J.D.]

s

PC. No question. Winning a semi in double OT isn't that valuable.

But how do we know that? That's what I am getting at. We don't know exactly how they're hashing this out.

 

[Numbers]

But how do we know that? That's what I am getting at. We don't know exactly how they're hashing this out.

I know it's COVID, and it's a strange year. But, in every other year, a result was a result. No points for 'close'. The committee went by the PWR. Even though the PWR cannot be used this year, it would seem awfully strange for the committee to all of a sudden use any thing other than actual results for determining the field.

Lowell just isn't close enough to PC. You mentioned KRACH earlier. Lose the final to Mass, and they fall in KRACH. Committee likely isn't using KRACH anyway, and in the PWR (conference only), PC is ahead of Lowell right now, and will remain if Lowell loses to Mass.

 

[J.D.]

Where are you seeing that? PWR I am looking at has both UML and UConn ahead of Providence.

 

[Numbers]

Where are you seeing that? PWR I am looking at has both UML and UConn ahead of Providence.

Hmmmm.....I might have thought I saw that earlier and missed it. You are right. However, if you add the result that Mass beats Lowell, then a whole lot of things change, and you get.....PC....Lowell....Conn

 

[J.D.]

Well that and Denver/Omaha are the most intriguing things to watch. Whether they simply use math to select teams from within a conference or if they are more flexible.

 

[brassbonanza]

I'm most intrigued by Lowell losing to UMass in say an OT heartbreaker...would committee take PC or UML if they take a 4th HE team. I can't see 5 being taken.

I don't think the committee will get past the fact that Lowell finished 7th in the league. Prior to Sunday they were 1-5-1 against the top half of Hockey East. Yes, this is a great two game stretch run they're on, but that's a pretty weak precedent for an at-large bid for the 7th place finisher in a league.

 

[UMLFan]

I don't think the committee will get past the fact that Lowell finished 7th in the league. Prior to Sunday they were 1-5-1 against the top half of Hockey East. Yes, this is a great two game stretch run they're on, but that's a pretty weak precedent for an at-large bid for the 7th place finisher in a league.

Let me preface this by saying I'd be shocked if Lowell gets in as an at-large. But since we don't know what the committee is using to decide, will they take into account the repeated quarantines for Lowell? Will they take into account a six game unbeaten right at the end of the year (assuming for this argument that they lose Saturday)?

 

[purpleinnebraska]

I'm most intrigued by Lowell losing to UMass in say an OT heartbreaker...would committee take PC or UML if they take a 4th HE team. I can't see 5 being taken.

This is why the Pairwise method is way better than the NCAA basketball method. Recency bias gets people placing a lot of importance on a couple of games from a conference tournament, and ignoring the large amount of games played leading up to that tournament. Lowell shouldn't come anywhere near making the field if they don't win the tournament.

 

[chrisP]

I'm most intrigued by Lowell losing to UMass in say an OT heartbreaker...would committee take PC or UML if they take a 4th HE team. I can't see 5 being taken.

No way Lowell gets a at-large bid if they lose. If they win, they are then a bid stealer, pushing PC out