NCAA Division III Predictions

[PSUChamps2001]

Re: NCAA Division III Predictions

Middlebury will defeat the Cards and send them home. Book it!!!

Probably......

 

[Matt Rennell]

Re: NCAA Division III Predictions

A post I read in another thread led me to take a look at this. Of the teams in the tournament, here is the number of games they played against the rest of the field and their record during the season.

Plattsburgh- 8 games (1-5-2)
Oswego- 7 games (6-1-0)
Norwich- 5 games (4-0-1)
Middlebury- 5 games (3-2-0)
Bowdoin- 4 games (1-3-0)
Elmira- 4 games (1-2-1)
Gustavus Adolphus- 3 games (2-1-0)
St. Thomas- 3 games (1-2-0)
Curry- 2 games (0-2-0)
Adrian- 1 game (0-1-0)
St. Norbert- 0 games (0-0-0)

 

[NUProf]

Re: NCAA Division III Predictions

After the Quarterfinals Carey has a perfect slate - the rest of us, not so much

11 Points
Josh Carey

9 Points
oldguard
jabber811
AllAmerica7
Outlaw88
MountieBoyOz

8 Points
BUhockey24
norm1909
Matt Rennell

7 Points
NUProf
Imafan
Logger4444

6 Points
Cards_rule_the_Burgh
mazile
Ozz
kimmerdog
LakerRanger

5 Points
PrezdeJohnson09

 

[NUProf]

Re: NCAA Division III Predictions

After the Semifinals Carey continues to have a perfect slate. Some of us have a pick in the finals and others are all done.

19 Points
Josh Carey (Norwich)

17 Points
Outlaw88 (SNC)

16 Points
Matt Rennell (Norwich)

15 Points
NUProf (Norwich)

13 Points
oldguard (Norwich)
jabber811 (done)

12 Points
BUhockey24 (Norwich)

11 Points
Imafan (done)


10 Points
Ozz (Norwich)
LakerRanger (done)

9 Points
AllAmerica7 (done)
MountieBoyOz (done)
PrezdeJohnson09 (SNC)

8 Points
norm1909 (done)


7 Points
Logger4444 (done)

6 Points
Cards_rule_the_Burgh (done)
mazile (done)
kimmerdog (done)

 

[Josh Carey]

Re: NCAA Division III Predictions

Curry at Elmira
St. Thomas at Gustavus Adolphus
Adrian at St. Norbert

Elmira at Norwich
Plattsburgh at Middlebury
Bowdoin at Oswego
Gustavus at St. Norbert

Plattsburgh vs Norwich
St. Norbert vs Oswego

St. Norbert vs. Norwich

But I hate Norwich, right Prof?

Start the perfect bracket chant! Essentially nailing the bracket before and after the tournament is pretty difficult, and I have to say, I was aided by one key thing: not watching any games.

Starting a new job right as the season began meant I actually didn't see a single game in person and didn't even watch a complete webcast of an entire game at any point during the season.

So the next time some blowhard with more air than brains asks "Did you see the game, genius?" quote this post and tell them to screw off because while watching hockey is great and fun, sitting in the stands doesn't make you any more knowledgeable than anybody else just for the sake of having sat there.

Congrats to Norwich on a well-deserved national championship. It was a great season that almost nobody* saw coming and the Cadets were able to survive a tough tournament and a heck of a championship game against St. Norbert for the title. The Green Knights have nothing to hang their head about.

*My preseason #5 team. Don't worry, I'll go back to hating them next year,

 

[NUProf]

Final Results

Final Results

Carey end up with a perfect slate. Do you want to know the probability of doing that blindly? Very Small

27 Points
Josh Carey

24 Points
Matt Rennell

23 Points
NUProf

21 Points
oldguard

20 Points
BUhockey24

18 Points
Ozz

17 Points
Outlaw88

13 Points
jabber811

11 Points
Imafan

10 Points
LakerRanger

9 Points
AllAmerica7
MountieBoyOz
PrezdeJohnson09

8 Points
norm1909

7 Points
Logger4444

6 Points
Cards_rule_the_Burgh
mazile
kimmerdog

 

[Josh Carey]

Re: Final Results

Re: Final Results

Do you want to know the probability of doing that blindly?

Yes actually

 

[NUProf]

Re: Final Results

Re: Final Results

Yes actually

1/2048 = 0.000488

 

[Matthew Webb]

Re: Final Results

Re: Final Results

Yes actually

Nice job on nailing it. I think I'd have been right there with you except I'd have had Wego over SNC in the semis. Wish I had seen this thread last week and jumped in on it.

 

[joecct]

Re: Final Results

Re: Final Results

1/2048 = 0.000488

Prof

The tournament has (had?) 10 games. 10 possible outcomes. Wouldn't that be 1 / 2^10 or 1/1024?????????????

Hint: I got a C in sadistics.

 

[NUProf]

Re: Final Results

Re: Final Results

Prof

The tournament has (had?) 10 games. 10 possible outcomes. Wouldn't that be 1 / 2^10 or 1/1024?????????????

Hint: I got a C in sadistics.

You are 100% correct - I was thinking 11 games for some unknown reason (like there were 11 teams)

 

[jerrynu26]

Re: Final Results

Re: Final Results

Prof

The tournament has (had?) 10 games. 10 possible outcomes. Wouldn't that be 1 / 2^10 or 1/1024?????????????

Hint: I got a C in sadistics.

Yeah, numbers hurt me too!

 

[CARDS_rule_the_Burgh]

Re: Final Results

Re: Final Results

You are 100% correct - I was thinking 11 games for some unknown reason (like there were 11 teams)

But that would then be the chance of getting each one right if they all happened independently of one another. But for each later round, you have to have also gotten each earlier round involving the "predicted winner" correct in order to have even gotten that one correct, so aren't the chances even smaller than 1/(2^10)?

(I got an A in intro stats, and aced the final, but your knowledge of such things far exceeds mine)

 

[NUProf]

Re: Final Results

Re: Final Results

But that would then be the chance of getting each one right if they all happened independently of one another. But for each later round, you have to have also gotten each earlier round involving the "predicted winner" correct in order to have even gotten that one correct, so aren't the chances even smaller than 1/(2^10)?

(I got an A in intro stats, and aced the final, but your knowledge of such things far exceeds mine)

No, the conditional probability is 1/2 if you got the previous games right. Using the fact that P(A and B) = P(A)*P(A|B), we are still going to end up with (1/2)^10. Still pretty darn small

 

[CARDS_rule_the_Burgh]

Re: Final Results

Re: Final Results

No, the conditional probability is 1/2 if you got the previous games right. Using the fact that P(A and B) = P(A)*P(A|B), we are still going to end up with (1/2)^10. Still pretty darn small

Haha, yeah. My bad, I think I just repeated to you a question I asked my prof in class... and got the same answer almost verbatim.

Answer made sense both times, felt like an idiot both times, and can probably guarantee that I'll ask it again at some point

 

[musicianvt]

Re: Final Results

Re: Final Results

No, the conditional probability is 1/2 if you got the previous games right. Using the fact that P(A and B) = P(A)*P(A|B), we are still going to end up with (1/2)^10. Still pretty darn small

Without that P, I can almost see a musical piece being built there-