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NCAA Bubble Watch

unofan

unofan

Well-known member
With 12 games to go, the field is nearly set. There are discrepancies between the USCHO's/CHN's NPI and the What If? Predictor's NPI, so it's not 100% clear on the margins what has to happen for certain teams to make it if things go wild. CHN's tournament probability matrix is probably your best bet to get a feel for the bubble until its "You are the Committee" tool is available for this season.

The current guaranteed safe line is 11th in the NPI - anyone assured of finishing at or above that spot is a lock. Anyone who can fall to 12th or lower is in danger from bid thieves.

Locks (10): Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Western Michigan, Denver, Minn-Duluth, North Dakota, Providence, Quinnipiac, Dartmouth

Additional Autobids (3): CCHA, AHA, HEA

Bubble Teams (1-3): Cornell, Wisconsin, Augustana, UMass, UConn

Potential remaining stolen bids (2): Big Ten (tOSU), ECAC (Clarkson/Princeton/Harvard)

Cornell - controls its own at-large destiny. For sure needs to win today against Harvard to stay ahead of Wisconsin. After that, it's not 100% clear if that makes them a lock or if they also need to beat Princeton to put themselves in. The What If? Predictor says they need to make the ECAC final, CHN's probability matrix indicates a win today is sufficient. Will also make the tournament at-large if either tOSU loses or Dartmouth wins the ECAC.

Wisconsin - needs help. Either tOSU losing, Cornell losing to Harvard, or Dartmouth/Cornell winning the ECAC. Unclear if Cornell beats Harvard and loses to Princeton if Wisconsin jumps Cornell and is safe (see above).

Augustana, UMass, UConn - if tOSU loses and Dartmouth/Cornell win the ECAC, then one of these three will get the last at-large bid. Unclear right now under which scenarios each makes it at-large, but it's almost entirely dependent on the HEA semis and final.
 
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The field is slowly taking shape.

Locks (11): Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Western Michigan, Denver, Minn-Duluth, North Dakota, Providence, Quinnipiac, Dartmouth, Cornell

Additional Autobids (3): CCHA, HEA, AHA

Bubble (0-2): Wisconsin, Augustana, UConn

Potential Stolen Bids (2): B1G (tOSU), ECAC (Princeton)

Wisconsin's path is simple. They are locked into the #12 spot in the NPI. Either a Dartmouth win or a Michigan win sends Wisconsin to the tournament. If both lose, Wisconsin is out.

Augustana is in with Dartmouth and Michigan wins and either UConn losing to BC tonight or UConn beating Merrimack tomorrow. Augustana is out with any of a Princeton win, tOSU win, or a Merrimack win over UConn.

UConn is in (at-large) with a Dartmouth win, Michigan win, and a win over B.C. tonight.
 
For seeding purposes:

Michigan, NoDak, MSU, and WMU are all locked into places 1-4 in that order.

Denver, Minn-Duluth, Dartmouth, and Providence are all locked into the 2-seed line, but final order will depend on the ECAC and NCHC finals tomorrow.

Quinnipiac, Penn State, and Cornell are all locked into places 9-11, though QU and PSU are close enough to flip spots depending on other outcomes. If Wisconsin makes it, they will be the final 3-seed. If they get knocked out by tOSU and Princeton, the final 3-seed is up for grabs.

The 4-seed line is a giant cluster pending tomorrow's outcomes.
 
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Sacred Heart/Bentley will be #16 and face Michigan in the first round,
and Minnesota State is also locked via autobid (why is their championship on Friday?), so that leaves

UConn
Merrimack
Augustana
Ohio State
Princeton

fighting for the last 2 spots (3 if they can boot Wisconsin)
 
Bronco Hockey Fan said:
Sacred Heart/Bentley will be #16 and face Michigan in the first round,
and Minnesota State is also locked via autobid (why is their championship on Friday?), so that leaves

UConn
Merrimack
Augustana
Ohio State
Princeton

fighting for the last 2 spots (3 if they can boot Wisconsin)
Click to expand...
Because the commissioner of the CCHA, the honorable and esteemed Don Lucia, clings tightly to the belief that by holding the CCHA championship a day ahead of everyone else's the eyes of the entire college hockey world will have nothing better to do than train themselves on the only championship match being held that day.

I never said it was a good idea. I'm only the messenger bringing you the rationale behind your "WTF are those guys doing now?" question.
 
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Bronco Hockey Fan said:
Sacred Heart/Bentley will be #16 and face Michigan in the first round,
and Minnesota State is also locked via autobid (why is their championship on Friday?), so that leaves

UConn
Merrimack
Augustana
Ohio State
Princeton

fighting for the last 2 spots (3 if they can boot Wisconsin)
Click to expand...
Merrimack, Ohio State and Princeton have to win to get in. UConn can lose, and as long as neither Princeton nor Ohio State wins, the Huskies still get in. Augustana gets in if all the higher seeds/favorites win. I "think" I have that right.
 
It's down to tOSU and UConn for the final spot. If tOSU wins, they're in. If they lose, UConn is in. Augustana's bubble is burst.
 
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