unofan
Well-known member
With 12 games to go, the field is nearly set. There are discrepancies between the USCHO's/CHN's NPI and the What If? Predictor's NPI, so it's not 100% clear on the margins what has to happen for certain teams to make it if things go wild. CHN's tournament probability matrix is probably your best bet to get a feel for the bubble until its "You are the Committee" tool is available for this season.
The current guaranteed safe line is 11th in the NPI - anyone assured of finishing at or above that spot is a lock. Anyone who can fall to 12th or lower is in danger from bid thieves.
Locks (10): Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Western Michigan, Denver, Minn-Duluth, North Dakota, Providence, Quinnipiac, Dartmouth
Additional Autobids (3): CCHA, AHA, HEA
Bubble Teams (1-3): Cornell, Wisconsin, Augustana, UMass, UConn
Potential remaining stolen bids (2): Big Ten (tOSU), ECAC (Clarkson/Princeton/Harvard)
Cornell - controls its own at-large destiny. For sure needs to win today against Harvard to stay ahead of Wisconsin. After that, it's not 100% clear if that makes them a lock or if they also need to beat Princeton to put themselves in. The What If? Predictor says they need to make the ECAC final, CHN's probability matrix indicates a win today is sufficient. Will also make the tournament at-large if either tOSU loses or Dartmouth wins the ECAC.
Wisconsin - needs help. Either tOSU losing, Cornell losing to Harvard, or Dartmouth/Cornell winning the ECAC. Unclear if Cornell beats Harvard and loses to Princeton if Wisconsin jumps Cornell and is safe (see above).
Augustana, UMass, UConn - if tOSU loses and Dartmouth/Cornell win the ECAC, then one of these three will get the last at-large bid. Unclear right now under which scenarios each makes it at-large, but it's almost entirely dependent on the HEA semis and final.
The current guaranteed safe line is 11th in the NPI - anyone assured of finishing at or above that spot is a lock. Anyone who can fall to 12th or lower is in danger from bid thieves.
Locks (10): Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Western Michigan, Denver, Minn-Duluth, North Dakota, Providence, Quinnipiac, Dartmouth
Additional Autobids (3): CCHA, AHA, HEA
Bubble Teams (1-3): Cornell, Wisconsin, Augustana, UMass, UConn
Potential remaining stolen bids (2): Big Ten (tOSU), ECAC (Clarkson/Princeton/Harvard)
Cornell - controls its own at-large destiny. For sure needs to win today against Harvard to stay ahead of Wisconsin. After that, it's not 100% clear if that makes them a lock or if they also need to beat Princeton to put themselves in. The What If? Predictor says they need to make the ECAC final, CHN's probability matrix indicates a win today is sufficient. Will also make the tournament at-large if either tOSU loses or Dartmouth wins the ECAC.
Wisconsin - needs help. Either tOSU losing, Cornell losing to Harvard, or Dartmouth/Cornell winning the ECAC. Unclear if Cornell beats Harvard and loses to Princeton if Wisconsin jumps Cornell and is safe (see above).
Augustana, UMass, UConn - if tOSU loses and Dartmouth/Cornell win the ECAC, then one of these three will get the last at-large bid. Unclear right now under which scenarios each makes it at-large, but it's almost entirely dependent on the HEA semis and final.
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