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MTU @ MN: Whose coach gets fired first?

Re: MTU @ MN: Whose coach gets fired first?

Bakunin said:
Warning: nerdy pairwise analysis to follow for the aid of Gopher fans wondering where we're at after tonight's win... read at your own risk.

First of all, MN's pairwise situation has worsened- CC retook their comparison tonight by beating UMD and overtaking MN on the RPI category. Maine also boosted its RPI by beating Merrimack, giving them a bit more of a cushion with MN. The Gophers must continue to win games and hope for better outcomes elsewhere. The Gophers are within 0.015 of seven teams on RPI, and this is going to play a crucial role in determining which side of the bubble they are on at season's end. The 0.015 seems arbitrary at first, but after the next paragraph, you'll see why I selected it as the realistic cut-off.

Based on my estimates, the RPI gain is about 0.003 for a win over an opponent on the level of UMD (CC's went up this much after tonight's win). It would be slightly higher for a win over UND, and slightly lower for a win over DU/UNO (this is important because this is the group of teams MN would play at the F5 in all likelihood). The RPI gain for a win over Tech is 0.002 *if* all other outcomes are neutral (they weren't tonight - since UMD and UW both lost and MN played them each four times, MN wound up seeing a net RPI gain of just 0.0008).

So, how much can MN gain in RPI over the coming weeks?

BSUx2 and Techx1 - by winning them all, the gain would be somewhere in the 0.003-0.005 range.
SCSU/UW/CCx2 (likely first round opponent) - sweep would gain 0.005, winning in 3 games would net probably 0.003.
DU/UNO/UMD (likely quarterfinal opponent) - win = 0.0025-0.003
UND/whoever (semifinal) - win = 0.003 (or more)
Championship game loss = subtract 0.0015 or so.
Net: +0.01-0.015

Now let's look at the comparisons decided by the RPI component that MN currently loses:
WMU (0.0009)
Maine (0.0047)
UW (0.0071)* - COP = identical records, so a MN win + UW loss or tie flips this to MN
CC (0.0025)
BU (0.0097)
RPI (0.0089)
Dartmouth (0.0126)* - comparison lost 3-0, but the TUC records are close, so this is in play.

MN must flip WMU, Maine, UW, CC, and BU to be alone in 15th. If they flip RPI's, they'd be alone in 14th and insulated from potential upset conference tourney champs elsewhere. There's a 0.01 RPI gap between 12th and 13th (UNH and Dartmouth), so it's unlikely MN can overtake any other team in this category. Note: the UNH-MN comparison is in play due to the TUC records of the two teams. The gophers' final TUC record would be 13-12-5 in all likelihood with a 2nd place F5 finish. If UNH nets two losses in TUC games from here on out, that would flip the comparison to MN in this scenario.

So, in short: 2nd place at the F5 yields MN somewhere in the 12th-15th range (I'd guess that they'd end up at 14th). One thing I can be reasonably certain of: they HAVE to go at least 1-1 at the F5 (2-1 if the first round takes 3 games).
Click to expand...

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Re: MTU @ MN: Whose coach gets fired first?

HarleyMC said:
Maine, UW, BU and RPI are very questionable in that regard.
Click to expand...
The upshot is they can pass UW via the COP part of the comparison - all they have to do is be one game better than UW from now on. Maine is well within reach if MN reaches the F5 - they just have to hope Maine doesn't advance similarly far in the HE tourney. Remember, a gap of 0.003 is roughly equal to a game - i.e. if MN wins and Maine loses tonight, the RPI gap is likely closed. BU and RPI are definitely iffy. Unless both of them decide to slump and lose two of their next three, MN is going to have a hard time catching them without at least reaching the F5 Friday game.
A Gopher win and a CC loss tonight seals home ice for the Gophers.
Click to expand...
WCHA-wise, we want CC to lose and UW/SCSU to tie. NCAA-wise, we want CC and SCSU to lose (for RPI purposes).

We also want Bemidji to at least split at UND to give them a stronger chance of finishing as a TUC. They are barely on the right side of the TUC cliff, and assuming that MN can take 3 or 4 points in Bemidji next weekend, they would want that to count on the TUC component if at all possible. My off the cuff guess is Bemidji must at least split in Grand Forks and push their first round series to three games to have any hope of finishing with an RPI over .5000. It'd also be nice if Mankato dropped out of TUC status, but they'd have to lose all four remaining games - and even then, I'm not sure they'd drop enough.

I'm going to make a note of the teams of interest and their RPI's and see how much the numbers move after tonight's games.

Note: after UAA lost, all the WCHA teams took a hit - 0.0005-0.0007.
 
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Re: MTU @ MN: Whose coach gets fired first?

Bakunin said:
Warning: nerdy pairwise analysis to follow for the aid of Gopher fans wondering where we're at after tonight's win... read at your own risk.

First of all, MN's pairwise situation has worsened- CC retook their comparison tonight by beating UMD and overtaking MN on the RPI category. Maine also boosted its RPI by beating Merrimack, giving them a bit more of a cushion with MN. The Gophers must continue to win games and hope for better outcomes elsewhere. The Gophers are within 0.015 of seven teams on RPI, and this is going to play a crucial role in determining which side of the bubble they are on at season's end. The 0.015 seems arbitrary at first, but after the next paragraph, you'll see why I selected it as the realistic cut-off.

Based on my estimates, the RPI gain is about 0.003 for a win over an opponent on the level of UMD (CC's went up this much after tonight's win). It would be slightly higher for a win over UND, and slightly lower for a win over DU/UNO (this is important because this is the group of teams MN would play at the F5 in all likelihood). The RPI gain for a win over Tech is 0.002 *if* all other outcomes are neutral (they weren't tonight - since UMD and UW both lost and MN played them each four times, MN wound up seeing a net RPI gain of just 0.0008).

So, how much can MN gain in RPI over the coming weeks?

BSUx2 and Techx1 - by winning them all, the gain would be somewhere in the 0.003-0.005 range.
SCSU/UW/CCx2 (likely first round opponent) - sweep would gain 0.005, winning in 3 games would net probably 0.003.
DU/UNO/UMD (likely quarterfinal opponent) - win = 0.0025-0.003
UND/whoever (semifinal) - win = 0.003 (or more)
Championship game loss = subtract 0.0015 or so.
Net: +0.01-0.015

Now let's look at the comparisons decided by the RPI component that MN currently loses:
WMU (0.0009)
Maine (0.0047)
UW (0.0071)* - COP = identical records, so a MN win + UW loss or tie flips this to MN
CC (0.0025)
BU (0.0097)
RPI (0.0089)
Dartmouth (0.0126)* - comparison lost 3-0, but the TUC records are close, so this is in play.

MN must flip WMU, Maine, UW, CC, and BU to be alone in 15th. If they flip RPI's, they'd be alone in 14th and insulated from potential upset conference tourney champs elsewhere. There's a 0.01 RPI gap between 12th and 13th (UNH and Dartmouth), so it's unlikely MN can overtake any other team in this category. Note: the UNH-MN comparison is in play due to the TUC records of the two teams. The gophers' final TUC record would be 13-12-5 in all likelihood with a 2nd place F5 finish. If UNH nets two losses in TUC games from here on out, that would flip the comparison to MN in this scenario.

So, in short: 2nd place at the F5 yields MN somewhere in the 12th-15th range (I'd guess that they'd end up at 14th). One thing I can be reasonably certain of: they HAVE to go at least 1-1 at the F5 (2-1 if the first round takes 3 games).
Click to expand...

So, you're sayin' there's a chance...
lloyd.jpg
 
Re: MTU @ MN: Whose coach gets fired first?

Well the boys played well this weekend it wasnt a complete game again tonight but they got it done. Pareantu (however you spell his name) got a few really good licks in on the tech player it was kind of nice to see a gopher play with intensity like that, not that I think it was a good thing to fight like that but it was good to see. I hope the boys can do it again next weekend and ride this streak all the way to the ncaa tourney, I know they got their work cut out for them but if we keep up the good work we can do it.


Go Gophers
 
Re: MTU @ MN: Whose coach gets fired first?

Nice to sweep as expected - pretty sad this was the first home sweep for MN in league play since last February. :eek:

In other news, MN continues to get very little help in the pairwise as many teams around them keep winning. Below is a snapshot of Saturday night's results and what their impact was on the RPI component - first number is their RPI before the games, and the second is after (note: these don't account for the UAA game which very slightly modifies the numbers to the tune of +0.0006 for WCHA teams and -0.0006 for CCHA teams):

Maine: 0.5288; beat Merrimack; 0.5329 (+0.0041)
BU: 0.5339; beat Vermont ; .5359 (+0.0020)
RPI: 0.5330; tied Quinnipiac; .5322 (-0.0008)
Dart: 0.5367; lost to Clarkson ; .5308 (-0.0059)
WMU: 0.5256; beat Notre Dame; .5297 (+0.0041)
UNH: 0.5480; beat NU ; .5503 (+0.0023)
MN: 0.5235; beat Tech; 0.5246 (+0.0011)
CC: 0.5258; tied UMD; 0.5262 (+0.0004)
UMD: 0.5528; tied CC; .5502 (-0.0026)
UW: 0.5307; lost to SCSU; 0.5255 (-0.0052)
SCSU: 0.5130; beat UW; 0.5166 (+0.0036)

A few things of note:
- The spread between beating a bad team and a good one is roughly .001-.004; the MN-Tech, Maine-Merrimack, and WMU-Notre Dame outcomes reflect this.
- Losing to mediocre teams is severely punished: UW and Dartmouth both had decent records and both lost to teams near .500; their RPIs cratered to the tune of .005-.006.
- Good teams tying average teams slightly favors the average team and punishes the good; UMD's RPI dropped .0026 while CC's climbed .0004.
 
Re: MTU @ MN: Whose coach gets fired first?

Okay, *** happened with Royer/Parenteau? I was at the Governor's Cup and didn't listen to the end of the game. I understand Royer got himself Boogaard'd. Video?
 
Re: MTU @ MN: Whose coach gets fired first?

For the most part, the Gophers were clicking on all cylinders on Senior Saturday to notch their first home WCHA sweep of the season by duplicating Friday's score of 5-2. This half the Gophers are averaging 3.4 G/game and allowing 2.5. But they've really caught fire lately during their current five game unbeaten streak and are averaging a stunning 5 G/game against some top teams while allowing only 2.4! The "pick and roll" line of Cepis/Haula/Hansen had a phenomenal 4G/4A weekend. It's particularly nice to see Jake Hansen finding his edge as a Gopher, after his past couple years of scoring frustration.

The Gopher win, CC tie and UW loss essentially locks up home ice advantage, and IMHO with at least a split @ BSU, a 5th place finish for the Gophers in the WCHA. Not bad considering the psychotic Jekyll/Hyde season swings this season!

The final weekend in the WCHA regular season will be smokin' for a few middle of the pack teams. CC/UW will battle for home ice next weekend, with UW needing at least 3 pts to seal home ice in a series that could realistically be repeated in the first round. Meanwhile SCSU @ DU should be equally a rough and tumble contest, as SCSU still has a chance for home ice, albeit a tough "mountain" to climb in Denver. It's doubtful that even with a DU sweep, that DU can topple UND for the top spot. UND finishes it's season @ MTU and barring an unforeseen upset, will most likely capture the 2010-11 WCHA MacNaughton Cup next weekend for the second time in the past three seasons.

My guessimate is the Gophers will host SCSU in the first round of the WCHA playoffs beginning Friday, March 11. Go Gophers!
 
Re: MTU @ MN: Whose coach gets fired first?

Twitch Boy said:
Okay, *** happened with Royer/Parenteau? I was at the Governor's Cup and didn't listen to the end of the game. I understand Royer got himself Boogaard'd. Video?
Click to expand...

[video]http://www.snappytv.com/snaps/910pm-things-get-a-little-chippy-after-the-whistle-while-g-about-college-hockey-on-fox-sports-north[/video]


Edit: The punches were thrown right after this video is done... looks like it's not on here.
 
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Re: MTU @ MN: Whose coach gets fired first?

That video shows none of the fight. Parenteau pretty much attacked Royer. While being a true tough guy by keeping his helmet on.
 
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