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MLB 2010: Hope Springs Eternal

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Re: MLB 2010: Hope Springs Eternal

Got this from Buster Olney's blog:

Memorial Day is one of those benchmarks for teams to establish a sense of where they are in the standings. The Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins, Oakland Athletics, Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds and San Diego Padres hope to maintain their first-place standing in their respective divisions to the next benchmark, which is right around the Fourth of July.

But back to Memorial Day weekend for a moment. Let's put some historical perspective to how teams in first place around this time do for the rest of the season. Because the date of Memorial Day changes, let's just use May 30 as the example for this background.

Since the advent of the wild card in 1995:

• Ninety-six teams have had at least a share of first place in a division on May 30.

• Fifty-eight times a team went on to win that division after leading on May 30 (60.4 percent).

• Five times a team went on to take the wild card.

So that means teams in first place on May 30 have made the playoffs roughly 66 percent of the time (65.625 percent to be exact)

That leaves 33 teams missing the postseason.

The division that has seen the teams miss the playoffs the most is the NL Central, where eight times a team had at least a share of first place on May 30 and didn't make the postseason. So that is bad news for the first-place Reds.

• The division with the highest conversion rate of teams making the postseason with at least a first-place lead on May 30 is the AL Central. Twelve of the 15 teams in first place on May 30 at least made the playoffs. That's good news for the Twins. But the Twins should keep last year in mind, because in 2009, the Detroit Tigers were in first on May 30 and didn't make the playoffs, losing to the Twins in a one-game playoff.

• There has been only one year when all six division leaders on May 30 won the division. That was in 1998, when the New York Yankees, Cleveland Indians, Texas Rangers, Atlanta Braves, Houston Astros and San Diego Padres all won their respective divisions.

• Give the competitive AL East title to the Tampa Bay Rays. In each of the past four years, the team in first place on May 30 has gone on to win the division at the end of the season.

• The team that has missed the playoffs the most when leading the division on May 30 is the Rangers, who had that happen on four occasions, including last year.

While this is no exact science, teams can take a deep breath and realize that history is on their side.
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Re: MLB 2010: Hope Springs Eternal

JuveGG24 said:
Got this from Buster Olney's blog:
Click to expand...

• The division with the highest conversion rate of teams making the postseason with at least a first-place lead on May 30 is the AL Central. Twelve of the 15 teams in first place on May 30 at least made the playoffs. That's good news for the Twins. But the Twins should keep last year in mind, because in 2009, the Detroit Tigers were in first on May 30 and didn't make the playoffs, losing to the Twins in a one-game playoff.

Shhhh... Don't tell scooby this. His head might explode. ;) :D
 
Re: MLB 2010: Hope Springs Eternal

For those who have a better clue as to the art of GMing, I have this question:

Under what circumstances would a pitcher be designated for assignment?

Here's a bit what I'm talking about (with my bias heavily ladled in):

Cubs reliever J. Grabow (thankfully injured at the moment) can't pitch without giving up at least one home run. His era is above 9 last time I checked.

What would it take for the Cubs to finally admit "GOOD GOD HE SUCKS!"

I'm not going to rant on the Cubs. I'm just curious how a pitcher like Grabow can still be in the majors and current Cub but former Dback Howry can be cut when they're basically identical (well, Howry's actually pitching better than Grabow)?
 
Re: MLB 2010: Hope Springs Eternal

Grabow just signed a 2-year $7.5M contract, so the Cubs aren't likely to DFA him. If no one claimed him off waivers, they'd still be on the hook for more than $5.6M. Easier to put him on the DL and hope that the rehab and time away from the game will help.
 
Re: MLB 2010: Hope Springs Eternal

Things that are dumb about baseball stats.

Cole Hamels as the starter pitches two thirds (2/3rds) of an inning before a rain delay. They are now going to finish the game and Hamels is going to get the loss, despite pitching less than any of the subsequent pitchers.

Yet he can not get the win unless he goes 5 innings as a starter.

Although the Phillies are trying to come back late.
 
Re: MLB 2010: Hope Springs Eternal

redwing77 said:
Cubs reliever J. Grabow (thankfully injured at the moment) can't pitch without giving up at least one home run. His era is above 9 last time I checked.

What would it take for the Cubs to finally admit "GOOD GOD HE SUCKS!"
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This is eerie. Have Grabow and Ollie Perez ever been seen at the same time? :eek: :confused:
 
Re: MLB 2010: Hope Springs Eternal

shockingly, both strasburg and stanton are set to be called up within days after june 1st.. pushing both their abitration dates back a full year.. but the clubs say they were just waiting to see when they 'were ready'
 
Re: MLB 2010: Hope Springs Eternal

Per CBS Sportsline, Ken Griffey Jr. has retired.

:(

Best player I ever saw, bar none.
 
Re: MLB 2010: Hope Springs Eternal

Hammer said:
Per CBS Sportsline, Ken Griffey Jr. has retired.

:(

Best player I ever saw, bar none.
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And beyond the numbers, one of the best guys to ever grace the game. Baseball could use a hundred more like him. For that matter all sports could. Some guys are first ballot hall-of-famers. If it was possible, he'd be in even quicker than that.
 
Re: MLB 2010: Hope Springs Eternal

Hammer said:
Per CBS Sportsline, Ken Griffey Jr. has retired.

:(

Best player I ever saw, bar none.
Click to expand...

one of my absolute favorites. :( was hoping to see him when the Mariners visit Milwaukee later this month. at least he played in our division for awhile. just thinking about what could have been for him, if not for his injury problems... 755 probably would have been a cakewalk.

one of my favorite articles about him - http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1154754/index.htm
 
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Re: MLB 2010: Hope Springs Eternal

Priceless said:
Grabow just signed a 2-year $7.5M contract, so the Cubs aren't likely to DFA him. If no one claimed him off waivers, they'd still be on the hook for more than $5.6M. Easier to put him on the DL and hope that the rehab and time away from the game will help.
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In all honesty, excluding this year's performance:

Was Grabow really worth that kind of money or did Hendry overpay?
 
Re: MLB 2010: Hope Springs Eternal

You saw what happened. No further commentary necessary.

Let me say this: Jim Joyce is lucky he's protected by a union. And that might not be enough.
 
Re: MLB 2010: Hope Springs Eternal

NMU8405 said:
How do you make that call...horrible.
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No kidding. Even worse, how can Sutcliffe sit here and defend him (or at least placate him) on ESPN now :rolleyes:

Dave O'Brien knows better, at least...

Hammer said:
You saw what happened. No further commentary necessary.

Let me say this: Jim Joyce is lucky he's protected by a union. And that might not be enough.
Click to expand...

That is just bad for baseball. The worst part is Galarraga pitched a hell of a game, and it will now be forever marred by that call.
 
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