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Minnesotans Arguing About the Weather III: Storm's a comin'

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Re: Minnesotans Arguing About the Weather III: Storm's a comin'

joecct said:
Snowing here, on the grass not on the pavement. WaPo thinks 3-7".
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Starting to stick on the street now. Already have a couple on the car, grass and fence posts. Sounds like the city is telling folks not to commute tomorrow -- it's going to be a sleet / ice mix all morning.

If DC gets 6 I'll probably get 10.
 
Re: Minnesotans Arguing About the Weather III: Storm's a comin'

Another bout of hysteria gets smacked down by reality.

Snowmaggedon! Snowpocalypse!

um, never mind....

Yes, it was a pretty heavy storm, about 6"-8" of snow, which has already changed over to freezing rain. Nowhere near the 12"-18" breathlessly bandied about for days.
 
Re: Minnesotans Arguing About the Weather III: Storm's a comin'

Kepler said:
Starting to stick on the street now. Already have a couple on the car, grass and fence posts. Sounds like the city is telling folks not to commute tomorrow -- it's going to be a sleet / ice mix all morning.

If DC gets 6 I'll probably get 10.
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We got 2" of snow at most in DC (except at 1600 PA Ave).
 
Re: Minnesotans Arguing About the Weather III: Storm's a comin'

Changed to sleet around midnight that held the totals down.

3" of frozen slush with an icy glaze of about 0.1"
 
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Re: Minnesotans Arguing About the Weather III: Storm's a comin'

St. Clown said:
Oops. Saw your post from 02-14, misread it as 03-14.
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we got hammered that storm but today the temps are rising, we are going to get a changeover to rain. They are still saying 12 18 here but I don't believe them, temps almost up to 30 now with very light snow.
 
Re: Minnesotans Arguing About the Weather III: Storm's a comin'

I saw that NH closed its state liquor stores.

The storm must be really bad up there.
 
Re: Minnesotans Arguing About the Weather III: Storm's a comin'

Its crazy out, We had little snow at 4 pm, looks to be over a foot now. The wind is howling and it looks to be changing over to wet snow, probably rain. My wife got stuck in work parking lot, she was livid but they got her out. She finally made it to her moms about 1 mile from work. Tomorrow morning shoveling is going to suck
 
Re: Minnesotans Arguing About the Weather III: Storm's a comin'

Wow. The National Weather Service forecasting models on Monday indicated that far less snow would fall in NY City than they had predicted the day before, and they withheld this information from the public! :mad:

I know a producer for CBS News, and he confirmed this story for me, so that even if you don't like this one source, there are other sources out there reporting the same thing (e.g., citation from Associated Press in the excerpt).

On the eve of Tuesday’s Winter Storm Stella, the National Weather Service got reports that its dire prediction of up to 2 feet of snow for New York City may have been exaggerated — but decided not to change its forecast.....in the end, only about 7 inches fell in Central Park.

After announcing that snow could reach record levels in the city, NWS meteorologists in New York and other Northeast cities held a conference call Monday afternoon about computer models that dramatically cut predicted totals.

But they decided to continue forecasting deep snow, claiming that they didn’t change their forecast for fear people would mistakenly think the storm was no longer dangerous.

“Out of extreme caution, we decided to stick with higher amounts,” Greg Carbin, chief of forecast operations at the Weather Prediction Center in Maryland, told the Associated Press.
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and they never once considered how this inaction might affect their future credibility??? :mad:




and how stupid do they think people are?? everyone knows how to respond to a forecast for 7" of snow. Everyone knows that would still be quite problematic.


Not only that, but snow removal equipment, emergency services, commuter railroads, other state and local government agencies, were all deploying their resources based on the original prediction, and likely would have made different decisions had they been given accurate information.
 
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Re: Minnesotans Arguing About the Weather III: Storm's a comin'

FreshFish said:
Wow. The National Weather Service forecasting models on Monday indicated that far less snow would fall in NY City than they had predicted the day before, and they withheld this information from the public! :mad:

I know a producer for CBS News, and he confirmed this story for me, so that even if you don't like this one source, there are other sources out there reporting the same thing (e.g., citation from Associated Press in the excerpt).




and they never once considered how this inaction might affect their future credibility??? :mad:




and how stupid do they think people are?? everyone knows how to respond to a forecast for 7" of snow. Everyone knows that would still be quite problematic.


Not only that, but snow removal equipment, emergency services, commuter railroads, other state and local government agencies, were all deploying their resources based on the original prediction, and likely would have made different decisions had they been given accurate information.
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Weather coverage creates ratings. That's why your routine, yet "heavy" storms you routinely see 1-2 times per year get treated like the Snowpacalypse. It sucks, but most people are stupid when it comes to weather. They believe what the talking heads say.
 
Re: Minnesotans Arguing About the Weather III: Storm's a comin'

Also, and this was admitted this week by the local weather terrorist, they would rather over estimate. Why? Would you rather expect an inch of snow and get 8? Or expect 8 and get 1?
 
Re: Minnesotans Arguing About the Weather III: Storm's a comin'

Brenthoven said:
Also, and this was admitted this week by the local weather terrorist, they would rather over estimate. Why? Would you rather expect an inch of snow and get 8? Or expect 8 and get 1?
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Sure, and I "get" that if you are only talking about one locality...but even here, the forecast would still have been 6"-8" instead of 18". That is still a pretty heavy storm.

More significantly in this case, however, the shift in the model that had far less snow falling along the coast also had even more snow falling inland. For NY state, that means that they had too much equipment in one place, while another part of the state got hit with 30" (instead of 18") and there wasn't nearly enough equipment there. So they spent half a day moving equipment around when they could have been moving it ahead of time had the NWS released the revised forecast that they kept secret.

The commuter railroad shut down entirely to protect against snow that never fell, stranding thousands.



Finally, and this is the most important element: future credibility. How can they reasonably expect people to believe them in the future if they tell people they are knowingly providing false forecasts?
 
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Re: Minnesotans Arguing About the Weather III: Storm's a comin'

Normally I defend the meteorologists, but I think fresh fish has a point here. The inland people didn't get that same warning and shutting down rail services is a big deal.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
Normally I defend the meteorologists, but I think fresh fish has a point here. The inland people didn't get that same warning and shutting down rail services is a big deal.
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It really depends on if the models had a new consensus or if it was just the latest run. Although the most recent run is usually the most correct, it isn't in 100% of cases. Imagine if they had lowered the forecast and then been wrong to change it?
 
Re: Minnesotans Arguing About the Weather III: Storm's a comin'

We're hearing rumors of up to 3" but the weather terrorists are really holding back. "POSSIBLY MAYBE SORTA WORST CASE" terminology. Most expect some slush at most in the Twin Cities.
 
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