Minnesota State Offseason Thread

[gfmorris]

Re: Minnesota State Offseason Thread

The upper tier of the WCHA is definately getting more competitive. Hoping to see improvement from #6-10 in the WCHA,as well. That would be a very good thing.

UAH is improved, although the lack of financial investment is going to cap our growth much past scrabbling for home ice. The big question for me really goes to FSU.

As far as PWR, flipping conferences isn't always going to be the answer; CC was crap very recently. If the guys aren't playing 100% for 60 minutes against the top half of the conference, that's on them and the coaches, not the competition. There's something to be said about leaving a little bit in the tank, though, given the travel in any western conference.

GFM

 

[purpleinnebraska]

Re: Minnesota State Offseason Thread

UAH is improved, although the lack of financial investment is going to cap our growth much past scrabbling for home ice. The big question for me really goes to FSU.

As far as PWR, flipping conferences isn't always going to be the answer; CC was crap very recently. If the guys aren't playing 100% for 60 minutes against the top half of the conference, that's on them and the coaches, not the competition. There's something to be said about leaving a little bit in the tank, though, given the travel in any western conference.

GFM

I'll admit, I don't subscribe to the theory that "weaker" competition has left us unprepared for NCAA play. You have to fight hard to win a WCHA game, and I think our players are ready for that "compete level" when the tournament comes around.

I think it's simply a talent issue. The high-skill players just aren't going to come to the WCHA, any more than they are coming to Atlantic Hockey. I think we've grabbed many of the very best undrafted people (Brickley, Tuomie, Mackey, for instance), and we've developed some diamonds in the rough, like a Casey Nelson or a Zeb Knutson. That speaks well for our coaches and players. But look at some of the talent on UMD, for instance. 6 NHL draft picks, including 1st and 2nd rounders. We had one on our roster, a 5th rounder. (NOTE: I wouldn't trade CJ Suess for any of those guys! But bear with me on this!) It's just hard to win at the highest level without a certain amount of top-notch talent.

As I've said before on one of these boards, you can be very successful without superstar level talent. Look at the Wild, Columbus, Vegas even. But at the end of the season, the guys hoisting the cup have Kane, Crosby, Keith, Malkin, Letang, etc. I think that's where MSU-M is right now. I have a heck of a lot of fun watching the Mavs (and the Wild, for that matter), but in our current situation, I have a hard time seeing it go much further than we've gone.

But, whatever happens, I'll be back next year, wearing purple!

 

[MavHockey14]

I'll admit, I don't subscribe to the theory that "weaker" competition has left us unprepared for NCAA play. You have to fight hard to win a WCHA game, and I think our players are ready for that "compete level" when the tournament comes around.

I think it's simply a talent issue. The high-skill players just aren't going to come to the WCHA, any more than they are coming to Atlantic Hockey. I think we've grabbed many of the very best undrafted people (Brickley, Tuomie, Mackey, for instance), and we've developed some diamonds in the rough, like a Casey Nelson or a Zeb Knutson. That speaks well for our coaches and players. But look at some of the talent on UMD, for instance. 6 NHL draft picks, including 1st and 2nd rounders. We had one on our roster, a 5th rounder. (NOTE: I wouldn't trade CJ Suess for any of those guys! But bear with me on this!) It's just hard to win at the highest level without a certain amount of top-notch talent.

As I've said before on one of these boards, you can be very successful without superstar level talent. Look at the Wild, Columbus, Vegas even. But at the end of the season, the guys hoisting the cup have Kane, Crosby, Keith, Malkin, Letang, etc. I think that's where MSU-M is right now. I have a heck of a lot of fun watching the Mavs (and the Wild, for that matter), but in our current situation, I have a hard time seeing it go much further than we've gone.

But, whatever happens, I'll be back next year, wearing purple!

I am the one who brought the unprepared piece into play, and I don’t think it’s the only factor contributing to the lack of success in the NCAAs, but to me it’s definitely a part of it. Coaching hockey, we always try and schedule the toughest opponents we can, to force us to play at an elite level consistently, for example. This is no different. When the competition is consistently better, night in and night out, your game is forced to meet a higher standard, and do it consistently.

If we were talking 2-4, even 6 games, okay, not a huge difference. However, when 20 of the games in your league involve teams worse than all 8 teams in the NCHC, that’s 10 series where the Mavs would’ve played better competition. Half their schedule. That’s staggering to me.

Ultimately, the blame for the lack of NCAA success Kaus at the feet of Coach Hastings and his staff, and the players. However, a weaker schedule compared to most legit contenders, as well as the larger issue, a recruiting barrier, particularly with in state schools UMD and SCSU, certainly don’t help the cause.

For example, the Poehling brothers all grew up an hour north of Mankato. None of them considered MSU, and all ended up at SCSU.

Mikey and Joey Anderson, both of whom played 75 minutes from Mankato, never sniffed campus. They ended up at UMD. (Now, their grandpa played a year at UMD and their father went to high school in Duluth and played D3 there, so they may have never had a shot anyways, but just a quick example.)

The top kids from the state that produces the most top end high school talent in the country see Mankato as the fourth option. To be considered the second option, with SCSU and UMD, is realistic, and is much more attainable in the NCHC where you consistently play against similar high end talent on a nightly basis.

 

[Iwearpurple]

Re: Minnesota State Offseason Thread

While I agree with the above posts, I believe that if playing stronger competition, you improve yourself, and if playing weaker competition, you regress. If I am playing golf against Tiger Woods, I know that I would shave a couple of strokes off my score, but if playing my grandson (who actually has beat me once), I will be adding a couple of strokes. I believe that is human nature.

Same thing would happen to the Mavericks in the NCHC. They would improve, plus they would get better recruits.

 

[Bale]

Re: Minnesota State Offseason Thread

I hate this conversation as it's very hard to have a rational, level-headed conversation about it. There are very good reasons to switch conferences. There are also very good reasons to NOT switch conferences. I personally believe that the best of reasons for moving conferences are off-ice reasons. People can bad on our fans all they want (and many times I would disagree with them), but I worry what would happen if we weren't in the top 3 of the conference every year. Not having top-level talent on our team and not having top level talent on the teams we're playing and not having any local rivalries to fall back on are extremely difficult to overcome.

Do I worry that we could become a doormat like we were in the old WCHA? Of course, because we've seen it before and it sucks. I have a lot more confidence in our current coach than I had in previous regimes though. I think we all would be happy if we had a run like St Cloud and there isn't a reason that we shouldn't be in the same category as them.

I do believe that the WCHA is on it's way up and will continue rising. I think there are 4-5 teams that have shown that fully investing in your team will lead to good results. I get there are different situations and not all of the schools have the same motivations and I dont' blame them for that. We all have to make choices on what's best for us in our every day life and schools have to do the same thing. Different schools have different climates within their region as far as finances, fans, and on-ice product. The reality is that having some schools putting caps on financial committment puts a cap on the rest of the schools, unless there are 7-8 teams that go all in (like the old WCHA) and only 2-3 that have financial restrictions. For God's sake, we were that school that didn't fully commit for a LONG time. There is a reason we weren't included in the initial group of schools in the NCHC in the first place.

I know it sounds like a slap in the face of our conference mates. It's not, it's just that we have different situations and different realities of what we need to do to succeed. It's not the intent of anyone. From the day that the conference shifts were initially announced, the MSU program (including Troy Jutting) said that wasn't the end of the realignment. Everyone knew the current makeup wasn't going to be the final makeup.

 

[Bale]

Re: Minnesota State Offseason Thread

I am the one who brought the unprepared piece into play, and I don’t think it’s the only factor contributing to the lack of success in the NCAAs, but to me it’s definitely a part of it. Coaching hockey, we always try and schedule the toughest opponents we can, to force us to play at an elite level consistently, for example. This is no different. When the competition is consistently better, night in and night out, your game is forced to meet a higher standard, and do it consistently.

I think we saw some of that from Brickley. The last couple weekends of the season and the first playoff series felt like he was being lazy with the puck and was able to get away with it. We got to the Tech series on Saturday and Sunday and it bit us. Hard. Would playing in a more difficult conference make a difference? I don't know, but it sure seemed like it may have been one of those cases.

 

[MavHockey14]

I hate this conversation as it's very hard to have a rational, level-headed conversation about it. There are very good reasons to switch conferences. There are also very good reasons to NOT switch conferences. I personally believe that the best of reasons for moving conferences are off-ice reasons. People can bad on our fans all they want (and many times I would disagree with them), but I worry what would happen if we weren't in the top 3 of the conference every year. Not having top-level talent on our team and not having top level talent on the teams we're playing and not having any local rivalries to fall back on are extremely difficult to overcome.

Do I worry that we could become a doormat like we were in the old WCHA? Of course, because we've seen it before and it sucks. I have a lot more confidence in our current coach than I had in previous regimes though. I think we all would be happy if we had a run like St Cloud and there isn't a reason that we shouldn't be in the same category as them.

I do believe that the WCHA is on it's way up and will continue rising. I think there are 4-5 teams that have shown that fully investing in your team will lead to good results. I get there are different situations and not all of the schools have the same motivations and I dont' blame them for that. We all have to make choices on what's best for us in our every day life and schools have to do the same thing. Different schools have different climates within their region as far as finances, fans, and on-ice product. The reality is that having some schools putting caps on financial committment puts a cap on the rest of the schools, unless there are 7-8 teams that go all in (like the old WCHA) and only 2-3 that have financial restrictions. For God's sake, we were that school that didn't fully commit for a LONG time. There is a reason we weren't included in the initial group of schools in the NCHC in the first place.

I know it sounds like a slap in the face of our conference mates. It's not, it's just that we have different situations and different realities of what we need to do to succeed. It's not the intent of anyone. From the day that the conference shifts were initially announced, the MSU program (including Troy Jutting) said that wasn't the end of the realignment. Everyone knew the current makeup wasn't going to be the final makeup.

It is FIRMLY AND ONE HUNDRED PERCENT DAVENPORT AND THIS ADMINISTRATION’S FAULT WE WERE LEFT OUT OF THE NCHC INITIALLY.

The part that frustrates me is that’s what it took for a true investment into the program. It has led to many good things and got the program to a spot I wasn’t sure I’d ever see it. For me though, there’s not a whole lot of growth left to be done if we stay in the WCHA.

I wholeheartedly agree, and don’t mean it as a slight to other WCHA schools. I throughly enjoy MTU and it’s fans, for example. The 2014-2015 MTU series in Mankato that was sold out was an electric atmosphere and excellent hockey. Same with FSU when the nWCHA was just getting rolling.

NMU and BGSU’s top teams have been fun series of hockey to watch.

Now imagine Mankato hosting 4 or 5 of those series in the same season. The top of the WCHA isn’t the issue. It’s the inconsistency of the 3-4-5 teams, and the bottom half being in the cellar nationally that really hurts.

With the investment made in the program, MSU needs to be in a conference where all schools are invested in a similar fashion, which is the pillar to the success the NCHC has had nationally and from top to bottom in its conference.

 

[MavHockey14]

I think we saw some of that from Brickley. The last couple weekends of the season and the first playoff series felt like he was being lazy with the puck and was able to get away with it. We got to the Tech series on Saturday and Sunday and it bit us. Hard. Would playing in a more difficult conference make a difference? I don't know, but it sure seemed like it may have been one of those cases.

An excellent example here. He developed a couple of habits he could get away with, all while still doing many things at a very high level, and then in the two biggest weekend of the season, had a couple horrid turnovers that led directly to goals, etc.

 

[MavHockey14]

I hate this conversation as it's very hard to have a rational, level-headed conversation about it. There are very good reasons to switch conferences. There are also very good reasons to NOT switch conferences. I personally believe that the best of reasons for moving conferences are off-ice reasons. People can bad on our fans all they want (and many times I would disagree with them), but I worry what would happen if we weren't in the top 3 of the conference every year. Not having top-level talent on our team and not having top level talent on the teams we're playing and not having any local rivalries to fall back on are extremely difficult to overcome.

Do I worry that we could become a doormat like we were in the old WCHA? Of course, because we've seen it before and it sucks. I have a lot more confidence in our current coach than I had in previous regimes though. I think we all would be happy if we had a run like St Cloud and there isn't a reason that we shouldn't be in the same category as them.

I do believe that the WCHA is on it's way up and will continue rising. I think there are 4-5 teams that have shown that fully investing in your team will lead to good results. I get there are different situations and not all of the schools have the same motivations and I dont' blame them for that. We all have to make choices on what's best for us in our every day life and schools have to do the same thing. Different schools have different climates within their region as far as finances, fans, and on-ice product. The reality is that having some schools putting caps on financial committment puts a cap on the rest of the schools, unless there are 7-8 teams that go all in (like the old WCHA) and only 2-3 that have financial restrictions. For God's sake, we were that school that didn't fully commit for a LONG time. There is a reason we weren't included in the initial group of schools in the NCHC in the first place.

I know it sounds like a slap in the face of our conference mates. It's not, it's just that we have different situations and different realities of what we need to do to succeed. It's not the intent of anyone. From the day that the conference shifts were initially announced, the MSU program (including Troy Jutting) said that wasn't the end of the realignment. Everyone knew the current makeup wasn't going to be the final makeup.

I think there is a loyal enough base of fans that the Mavs could survive a few down years..attendance may drop down to something like 3,200-3,500 Friday-Saturday split, but I don’t think we’d see a severe drop off.

For example, Hockey games are such a big social event for so many people, the concourses outside sections 214-218 are always littered with people throughout the intermissions, and well into the periods many times too, as people have a relatively cheap option for a night out that they can go and have some beers and casually watch the game.

 

[gfmorris]

Re: Minnesota State Offseason Thread

I want to state up-front that I don't blame MSU-M fans for wanting to move to the NCHC, and I'll wish them well if they get their chance to make the move.

If we were talking 2-4, even 6 games, okay, not a huge difference. However, when 20 of the games in your league involve teams worse than all 8 teams in the NCHC, that’s 10 series where the Mavs would’ve played better competition. Half their schedule. That’s staggering to me.

1. I expect that this 20-game value is true this season but not for past WCHA seasons where the gap between top and bottom was wider.

2. PWR isn't perfect, so let's consider for a moment how it's calculated, per the USCHO FAQ: http://www.uscho.com/faq/pairwise-rankings-explanation/
a. HTH comparisons. Wins are wins regardless of who they are against.
b. RPI comparisons. Here, being a part of a better league is a help, especially if your league mates don't play bad teams (and therefore get their lower W% involved).
c. Common opponents calculations. This is largely driven by OOC play, so league strength is a factor here as well.

If you're a top team and you blitz your schedule, you're going to be great in PWR, and it won't really matter too much whom you play. If your concern is getting into the NCAAs as an at-large team, then yes, being in a better conference is valuable, but the best teams in the nWCHA have proven that they're capable of making it past the Broadmoor/Sauer awards and onto further success.

The insularity of conference play does limit exposure of WCHA teams to their conference mates' poor play. The NCHC's 20-game schedule allows them more scheduling flexibility. Half the NCHC teams this year had a higher overall W% than they did in-conference, and that doesn't include the top two teams. That's how you raise PWR with a strong league. If NCHC teams had a more insular schedule, their PWR would be lower since they would have fewer comparisons / common teams (see c above).

GFM

 

[gfmorris]

Re: Minnesota State Offseason Thread

A fuller treatment would be to consider the grid of PWR comparisons and think about how things would change if you swapped MSU-M with any one NCHC team: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-rankings/d-i-men/grid/

That's left as an exercise for the interested student.

GFM

 

[crossjcek]

Re: Minnesota State Offseason Thread

Fun season to be a part of.
Great to have a regional close enough to drive to.
Disappointing end to the season blowing a 2 goal lead.

To get off the conference talk, what do you see as the lines to start next year? What recruits do they bring in for the year? Will goaltending be our downfall or does someone step up?

 

[purpleinnebraska]

Re: Minnesota State Offseason Thread

Fun season to be a part of.
Great to have a regional close enough to drive to.
Disappointing end to the season blowing a 2 goal lead.

To get off the conference talk, what do you see as the lines to start next year? What recruits do they bring in for the year? Will goaltending be our downfall or does someone step up?

Good off-season questions! Unfortunately, I'm not terribly optimistic in my answers. Haven't seen a lot of USHL action this year, but none of our forwards are putting up Tuomie-Jaremko type numbers. Nathan Smith has 13-27-40, Julian Napravik 19-19-38, and Cade Borchardt has 12-26-38. I've seen Napravnik play a few times, and I think he can be all right, but I wasn't wowed like I was watching CJ, Parker, and Jake in years past. Sowder does have some fairly big numbers in the BCHL, including 14 pts in 13 playoff games, but I think the BCHL tends to be a higher scoring league. But I think we're going to have to look internally. I was really impressed with Charlie Gerard the first few games last year, but then his play fell off and he fell out of the lineup. Maybe he could step up this year, like Knutson did his last couple of years. I think Spooner can move up in the lineup, and I think Duehr showed enough to believe he can succeed in a 3rd or 4th line role. But I worry about our goal-scoring potential. I like Michaelis, Tuomie, Jaremko, Lutz, and Gerads on the offensive end, but the skill level falls off fairly sharply after that. Rivera, French, and Coatta will all play solid, responsible hockey, but goals? I don't see them in a top 6 role.

I'm less concerned on D. I think Mackey still has huge upside potential, and I think McNeely will be OK back in the lineup. If need be, Schwalbe could always come back to playing D, and do a serviceable job. Among the recruits, Colby Bukes has impressed a lot of people, although he'll need to reduce his penalty minutes in college.

In goal? I pray a lot. I'm not sure it's a great strategy, but it seems like our best shot right now.

 

[Bale]

Re: Minnesota State Offseason Thread

Good off-season questions! Unfortunately, I'm not terribly optimistic in my answers. Haven't seen a lot of USHL action this year, but none of our forwards are putting up Tuomie-Jaremko type numbers. Nathan Smith has 13-27-40, Julian Napravik 19-19-38, and Cade Borchardt has 12-26-38. I've seen Napravnik play a few times, and I think he can be all right, but I wasn't wowed like I was watching CJ, Parker, and Jake in years past. Sowder does have some fairly big numbers in the BCHL, including 14 pts in 13 playoff games, but I think the BCHL tends to be a higher scoring league. But I think we're going to have to look internally. I was really impressed with Charlie Gerard the first few games last year, but then his play fell off and he fell out of the lineup. Maybe he could step up this year, like Knutson did his last couple of years. I think Spooner can move up in the lineup, and I think Duehr showed enough to believe he can succeed in a 3rd or 4th line role. But I worry about our goal-scoring potential. I like Michaelis, Tuomie, Jaremko, Lutz, and Gerads on the offensive end, but the skill level falls off fairly sharply after that. Rivera, French, and Coatta will all play solid, responsible hockey, but goals? I don't see them in a top 6 role.

I'm less concerned on D. I think Mackey still has huge upside potential, and I think McNeely will be OK back in the lineup. If need be, Schwalbe could always come back to playing D, and do a serviceable job. Among the recruits, Colby Bukes has impressed a lot of people, although he'll need to reduce his penalty minutes in college.

In goal? I pray a lot. I'm not sure it's a great strategy, but it seems like our best shot right now.

I'm wondering if we might have to play a bit more defensive game next year, not a lot, but a little bit. I think I like Rivera a bit more than a lot of people assuming he can keep himself from taking too many stupid penalties. He's got a bit of reckless abandon to him sometimes. In fairness, you named 5 guys that seem to be locks for Top-6 playing time. That's a pretty good number of guys to trust in that role. It doesn't take much for 1 or 2 guys to pop up and take on a bigger role. I think it's really going to come down to better team defense to help out the goalies. Pawloski has looked good at times and pretty awful at other times. If we can limit the number of good shots he faces and take advantage of the mistakes our opponents make, we'll be in good shape.

 

[purpleinnebraska]

Re: Minnesota State Offseason Thread

I'm wondering if we might have to play a bit more defensive game next year, not a lot, but a little bit. I think I like Rivera a bit more than a lot of people assuming he can keep himself from taking too many stupid penalties. He's got a bit of reckless abandon to him sometimes. In fairness, you named 5 guys that seem to be locks for Top-6 playing time. That's a pretty good number of guys to trust in that role. It doesn't take much for 1 or 2 guys to pop up and take on a bigger role. I think it's really going to come down to better team defense to help out the goalies. Pawloski has looked good at times and pretty awful at other times. If we can limit the number of good shots he faces and take advantage of the mistakes our opponents make, we'll be in good shape.

Good points, and I probably was overly-pessimistic, but when I think of no CJ, no Brickley, no Zeb (coming off a 40 point season and a goal in the NCAA game), and no McClure, that sure seems like a lot of offense to replace.

 

[crossjcek]

Re: Minnesota State Offseason Thread

The goaltending worries me as we held opposing teams to very few shots on goal this year, improving that will be tough in my opinion.
I think we see Michaelis, Jaremko, and spooner as top three line centers. I think we should be ok on defense. scoring 4 goals a game won't happen next year. I just hope they find scoring when they need it. Depth has always been a strength, especially in conference play, the lack of that could hurt us next year.

 

[MavHockey14]

The goaltending worries me as we held opposing teams to very few shots on goal this year, improving that will be tough in my opinion.
I think we see Michaelis, Jaremko, and spooner as top three line centers. I think we should be ok on defense. scoring 4 goals a game won't happen next year. I just hope they find scoring when they need it. Depth has always been a strength, especially in conference play, the lack of that could hurt us next year.

I’ve heard they’re looking at all options in terms of building depth there, including another grad transfer if possible.

I’ll have more on the offseason and recruiting after the Frozen Four this weekend.

 

[ThePowerConference]

Re: Minnesota State Offseason Thread

NCHC fan here...not gonna state the specific school, but I would like to see Mankato join our conference someday. It makes a lot of sense geographically and it would help your team in the long run, in my opinion. It will force you to get better. It might be rough for a few years but eventually it would pay off. Coach Hastings has publicly stated that he would like to be in the NCHC someday too. Bemidji State makes a lot of sense geographically too and they have a new, upgraded arena but I'm not sure they are willing to join. Plus, they'd get spanked every weekend too by the looks of it.

 

[huskyfan]

Re: Minnesota State Offseason Thread

one word. St, Clouud.

 

[crossjcek]

Re: Minnesota State Offseason Thread

NCHC fan here...not gonna state the specific school, but I would like to see Mankato join our conference someday. It makes a lot of sense geographically and it would help your team in the long run, in my opinion. It will force you to get better. It might be rough for a few years but eventually it would pay off. Coach Hastings has publicly stated that he would like to be in the NCHC someday too. Bemidji State makes a lot of sense geographically too and they have a new, upgraded arena but I'm not sure they are willing to join. Plus, they'd get spanked every weekend too by the looks of it.

Are you just trying to rile mavhockey14 up again? The subject has been covered in a couple of threads. If they have the chance they will move. I will continue to support Mav hockey no matter which conference they are in and go to games to watch the Mavericks. Yes it is fun to see drafted talent in the building from the visiting team and the in state rivals but it doesn't sway my attendance. I know it does for some casual fans. I don't know if it would bring the students back, that is one segment that disappoints me these days.