Minnesota Gophers Season Thread 2015-16

[D2D]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread 2015-16

Now that the Big 10 season has kicked off and has been a much better result let's see if they can use the Classic to correct some of their non-conference debacle.

Right now they are 4-7 out of conference, so with four remaining they potentially could get to 8-7. However I think most would agree that going 3-1 in the remaining non-conference games would a good result for this team. That would put them at 7-8, and if one of those 3 wins were to include Harvard it would have significant PWR implications as Stauber1 alluded to above.

 

[Koho]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread 2015-16

Right now they are 4-7 out of conference, so with four remaining they potentially could get to 8-7. However I think most would agree that going 3-1 in the remaining non-conference games would a good result for this team. That would put them at 7-8, and if one of those 3 wins were to include Harvard it would have significant PWR implications as Stauber1 alluded to above.

If we are dreaming, how about a win over Jan?

 

[Koho]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread 2015-16

Now that the Big 10 season has kicked off and has been a much better result let's see if they can use the Classic to correct some of their non-conference debacle.

This sounds like a greater than 20% guy.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread 2015-16

This sounds like a greater than 20% guy.

Hope is eternal.

 

[Stauber1]

I haven't seen a case where a game isn't televised anywhere but then shows up on BTN+. If its on, you can probably buy for a month and quit. But BTN+ is pretty darn awesome...you can watch rewatch games. Watch other league games and catch some pretty amazing women's Gopher hockey. Well worth the money.

Hmm, not sure I understand. BTN+ only shows non-televised events. If it's on tv anywhere, it's only on BTN2go.

I just don't know if there will be a student production of this game that BTN+ can pick up

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread 2015-16

Hmm, not sure I understand. BTN+ only shows non-televised events. If it's on tv anywhere, it's only on BTN2go.

I just don't know if there will be a student production of this game that BTN+ can pick up

I see what you mean. The Harvard/Ferris game is showing up on BTN+ at this point.

 

[Stauber1]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread 2015-16

If we are dreaming, how about a win over Jan?

That would be good, but I'm not sure if it wouldn't be better to draw Mankato in the N Star.

With our current 0-4 record against the NCHC, we aren't going to win any comparisons over other NCHC teams except for in RPI. Beating St. Cloud would give us a 1-4 record against the NCHC and 1-2 against St. Cloud - neither of which is going to help us in comparisons.

But more wins against the WCHA the more likely we are to win comparisons against WCHA teams; like Bowling Green, Tech and of course Mankato - teams that would seem to be in competition with the Gophers for those last few at-large bids.

Of course, the most important component of the PWR is by far RPI, and a neutral site win over St. Cloud will likely give us a significant bump there when all is said and done.

And the Gophers would still have to go, at MINIMUM I think, 10-6 over the rest of the Big 10 schedule to have a sniff at the NCAA's come conference tourney time.

 

[Koho]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread 2015-16

That would be good, but I'm not sure if it wouldn't be better to draw Mankato in the N Star.

With our current 0-4 record against the NCHC, we aren't going to win any comparisons over other NCHC teams except for in RPI. Beating St. Cloud would give us a 1-4 record against the NCHC and 1-2 against St. Cloud - neither of which is going to help us in comparisons.

But more wins against the WCHA the more likely we are to win comparisons against WCHA teams; like Bowling Green, Tech and of course Mankato - teams that would seem to be in competition with the Gophers for those last few at-large bids.

Of course, the most important component of the PWR is by far RPI, and a neutral site win over St. Cloud will likely give us a significant bump there when all is said and done.

And the Gophers would still have to go, at MINIMUM I think, 10-6 over the rest of the Big 10 schedule to have a sniff at the NCAA's come conference tourney time.

My optimistic lesser half thinks 10-6 is doable (mainly due to the BI6 power this year).

 

[Stauber1]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread 2015-16

My optimistic lesser half thinks 10-6 is doable (mainly due to the BI6 power this year).

yeah, but is 4-0 in the remaining non-conf schedule doable?

It's an uphill battle right now for sure, but there is still hope. Wins against Harvard and Mankato/Cloud would help a lot.

 

[Stauber1]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread 2015-16

Actually, there's no question a win against St. Cloud would be more valuable than a win over Mankato (assuming St. Cloud maintains their position in RPI).

Forgot that since they eliminated the TUC component, the only way to overcome losing the RPI component in a comparison is to have a better head-to-head record against the team. Basically it has turned the PWR into a straight "QWB adjusted" RPI.

 

[D2D]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread 2015-16

Since we are the home team, I assume one of the long-term Gophers fans here will be starting a separate Mariucci Classic thread fairly soon?

Go.

 

[Koho]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread 2015-16

So are people surprised Downing got 2 games for his hit?

Also, what was the hit that led to the other suspension? Who on the Gophers was hit? I can't remember the play. At first I thought it was the collision with Kloos, but the article mentioned a minor was called. No call on the Kloos hit. I thought it should have been one. They collided at the blue line when both were looking away and by the time they saw each other, couldn't be avoided. But I thought the Mi player leaned into it and caught Kloos high, making it worse than if he had just styed on his course and they caught shoulders. Thought it would have gotten 2 minutes (didn't try to hit him away from the puck, but ended up catching his head due to leaning in, so have to call a head shot.) Whether Kloos was hurt enough to warrant lying on the ice for several seconds might have been the difference. Maybe the ref thought it was embellishment but preferred to let both go.

 

[SJHovey]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread 2015-16

That would be good, but I'm not sure if it wouldn't be better to draw Mankato in the N Star.

With our current 0-4 record against the NCHC, we aren't going to win any comparisons over other NCHC teams except for in RPI. Beating St. Cloud would give us a 1-4 record against the NCHC and 1-2 against St. Cloud - neither of which is going to help us in comparisons.

But more wins against the WCHA the more likely we are to win comparisons against WCHA teams; like Bowling Green, Tech and of course Mankato - teams that would seem to be in competition with the Gophers for those last few at-large bids.

Of course, the most important component of the PWR is by far RPI, and a neutral site win over St. Cloud will likely give us a significant bump there when all is said and done.

And the Gophers would still have to go, at MINIMUM I think, 10-6 over the rest of the Big 10 schedule to have a sniff at the NCAA's come conference tourney time.

I think I posted this last year when Harley was here in early February claiming MN no longer controlled its own destiny in terms of getting in the tournament, even though they had something like 12-14 games left to play.

If you go back and look at the 16 team format for the NCAA tournament, if you can get to 23+ wins on the season by the time the NCAA selection show airs, your chances of getting in the tournament are extremely high. I would guess that there is on average less than one team a year that fails to get in with that number of wins with the 16 team format. If you are sitting in the 20-22 win range, then it becomes much more critical in terms of who you have beaten, strength of schedule, etc... I know this seems like a very simplistic analysis of what is a much more detailed math equation, but you'd be surprised how strong a correlation there is with that 23 win mark and making the tournament. Maybe that will change long term now that there are 6 autobids rather than 5, but in terms of my team, I'm always looking to see when they hit that mark.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread 2015-16

I know folks are regularly focused on the tourney. But I'd like to see a bigten regular season championship (even with it being big ten). Its not too far of a stretch (vis a vis getting a tourney invite from the PWR) and is the first goal to shoot for. A 5th straight would be a pretty awesome accomplishment for this team.

 

[Stauber1]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread 2015-16

I think I posted this last year when Harley was here in early February claiming MN no longer controlled its own destiny in terms of getting in the tournament, even though they had something like 12-14 games left to play.

If you go back and look at the 16 team format for the NCAA tournament, if you can get to 23+ wins on the season by the time the NCAA selection show airs, your chances of getting in the tournament are extremely high. I would guess that there is on average less than one team a year that fails to get in with that number of wins with the 16 team format. If you are sitting in the 20-22 win range, then it becomes much more critical in terms of who you have beaten, strength of schedule, etc... I know this seems like a very simplistic analysis of what is a much more detailed math equation, but you'd be surprised how strong a correlation there is with that 23 win mark and making the tournament. Maybe that will change long term now that there are 6 autobids rather than 5, but in terms of my team, I'm always looking to see when they hit that mark.

That does pass the smell test. Of course, if you happen to come from a weak conference like Atlantic Hockey, 23 wins are probably less likely to earn you a bid. The Big 10 isn't as weak as the Atlantic, but...

At any rate, it's going to be hard for the Gophers to hit 23 wins this season. They would have to go 14-6 the remainder of the regular season and then win 2 Big Tourney games, which would earn them the auto-bid anyway. If they go 1-1 in the Big Tourney they would have to go 15-5 over the rest of the regular season to hit 23 wins.

No, they desperately need to beat either Harvard or St. Cloud, and then put together a solid record over the remainder of their games (with some wins over Michigan/PSU in conference play). Even then they will probably need some things to break their way. How much needs to break their way would depend on just how solid their record is from here on out.

And having the Big 10 do better in the remaining non-conf play would definitely help. Only about 13-14 total out-of-conference games left for the Big 10 as a whole. Most years I don't really feel any loyalty to the Big 10 conference and don't care if the other teams lose...but this year, when the Gophers need all the help they can get, I'll have to be cheering for a strong finish to non-conf play by all Big 10 teams.

 

[Stauber1]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread 2015-16

I know folks are regularly focused on the tourney. But I'd like to see a bigten regular season championship (even with it being big ten). Its not too far of a stretch (vis a vis getting a tourney invite from the PWR) and is the first goal to shoot for. A 5th straight would be a pretty awesome accomplishment for this team.

Eh. I think I said last year I couldn't give 2 ****s about the Big 10 title. I had to amend that, and now say I would give a single **** for a Big title....but not 2.

It's great for the team to focus on goals within reach and then let the chips fall where they may. But as a fan, I can afford to look ahead a bit. And I'd take an NCAA tourney birth over a Big title any day.

 

[The Rube]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread 2015-16

So are people surprised Downing got 2 games for his hit?

Also, what was the hit that led to the other suspension? Who on the Gophers was hit? I can't remember the play. At first I thought it was the collision with Kloos, but the article mentioned a minor was called. No call on the Kloos hit. I thought it should have been one. They collided at the blue line when both were looking away and by the time they saw each other, couldn't be avoided. But I thought the Mi player leaned into it and caught Kloos high, making it worse than if he had just styed on his course and they caught shoulders. Thought it would have gotten 2 minutes (didn't try to hit him away from the puck, but ended up catching his head due to leaning in, so have to call a head shot.) Whether Kloos was hurt enough to warrant lying on the ice for several seconds might have been the difference. Maybe the ref thought it was embellishment but preferred to let both go.

Downing has a rep. A well-deserved rep. Dude is a worthless pile of crap dirty player.

 

[SteveO]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread 2015-16

Of course, if you happen to come from a weak conference like Atlantic Hockey, 23 wins are probably less likely to earn you a bid.

Yeah, you're right there is no magic number of wins that guarantees an at-large bid or obviously there would be no need for the Pairwise Ranking system. Last season Robert Morris had 24 wins were not even close to the top 20 PWR and unfortunately missed the NCAA regionals with a loss in their conf. tourney. Conversely, Neb-Omaha and Yale had 18 wins, SCSU had 19 and they all managed to gain an at-large bid.

You guys got me looking around a bit and I noticed that one of the reasons the Gophers have risen in the PWR is they have beaten teams inc. OSU, NE, MSUM, Notre Dame that have a relatively high OppW%. That translates into a high OppOppW% for the Gophers which is .54 of the RPI placing the Gophers at 4th in the nation and provides a nice and albeit fortunate bump in the PWR despite their losing record. Harvard is at #5 and if the Gophers draw and beat Harvard in the MClassic, it could get very interesting in the PWR.

 

[Stauber1]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread 2015-16

I don't think he was saying that 23 wins would lock up a tournament birth, just that if you win 23 games over the course of the season you have very high odds of making it.
But the point that there are a lot of other variables at play is important, evidenced by my hypothetical and your actual example of an Atlantic Hockey team exceeding that 23w mark and not qualifying.

Again, though, it is going to be hard for Minnesota to hit 23 wins this season. But they don't necessarily have to. Winning the *right* games can go a long way in the PWR.

 

[streaker]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread 2015-16

Downing has a rep. A well-deserved rep. Dude is a worthless pile of crap dirty player.

He may be dirty, but no more dirty than kids that tried to slew foot or slash him into taking retallitory penalties. The B1G's officiating is garbage, very arbitrary and definitely has a jones for this kid.